HTML5 will not take over Flash until the standard is organised.
HTML5 is currently a big mess with video standards all over the place, and differnet support for different functions in all the browsers.
Take a look at this website for example:
[url]http://html5readiness.com/[/url]
Coded in HTML5 and CSS3, it's horribly inefficent in every browser that can render HTML5. A tab in Google Chrome even crashed when loading that page.
Lets look at another example:
[url]http://www.themaninblue.com/writing/perspective/2010/03/22/[/url]
Now HTML5 will eventually get the support it needs to perform well, but until then, Flash will dominate rich media on the Internet.
Flash does outperform browsers at animations and such, but that's probably more to do with the fact that Flash is a decade old, heavily optimised renderer for animations and other dynamic content, while browsers aren't.
They are getting better though, code is being optimised, smarter ways being taken (batching updates and such), more parallelism, etc.
My main problem with Flash, is that it's overused. Banner ads, drop down menus, scrolling text areas, etc. don't need Flash. There's nothing inherently wrong with Flash, as long as it's used properly.
Scrolling text areas are bad in general haha
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