• Official UK forecast says areas which voted to Leave will be hit hardest by Brexit
    53 replies, posted
[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42977967[/url] [quote]Parts of the UK that backed a Leave vote would face the heaviest hit as a result of Brexit, according to estimates by government officials. The forecasts, seen by MPs, model the 15-year impact of the UK staying in the single market, doing a trade deal with the EU or leaving without a deal. They suggest that in England, the North East and West Midlands would see the biggest slowdown in growth. The government says the studies do not cover all outcomes. And one Eurosceptic Tory MP said the figures were "complete nonsense".[/quote] [img]https://i.imgur.com/aSdIGNm.png[/img]
The irony is so rich you could make a fortune off of it.
[QUOTE]And one Eurosceptic Tory MP said the figures were "complete nonsense".[/QUOTE] This is John Redwood who, despite being a vocal and longstanding voice for leaving the EU in the Tory party, once wrote a piece for the Financial Times telling investors to look "Further afield" than the UK because of the state of the economy after the Brexit vote.
[QUOTE] The government says the studies do not cover all outcomes.[/QUOTE] Says it all really.
I'm sorry, I'm just having a great big laugh over here. Also, don't debate with Boilrig over this.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] I'd imagine they didn't want to try and account for imaginary outcomes.
[QUOTE]The government says the studies do not cover all outcomes.[/QUOTE] Then why didn't the government study these other outcomes? [QUOTE]The government has said the analysis is preliminary and crucially does not measure the impact of the UK's preferred option of a bespoke and comprehensive trade agreement, covering goods and financial services.[/QUOTE] Is this the magical deal where we get all the benefits of the single market without any of the compromises?
Right wing ideas that fuck over the people that vote for them? No way /s
The government's position is that somehow, we will get a better deal than the single market option but without remaining in the single market, even though their study has established that the consequences are worse the harder the Brexit is
.
I wish poor uneducated people didn't suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect along with being taught pro-selfish individualistic ideologies. If they weren't SO certain of their correctness and aptitude then they would be far less likely to fall for reactionary bullshit like Brexit (or [sp]Trump[/sp])
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] I think the UK government is just obligated to tack that onto anything they put out since the referendum and that last snap election.
Reminds me of headlines like [URL="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wales-vote-leave-eu-referendum-result-brussels-funding-economy-a7136196.html"]this[/URL]. Despite being a clear beneficiary of the EU, the majority of Wales voted leave, which is extra weird considering that Westminster doesn't have the greatest habit of caring about not-London. It's all a bit silly.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] Are you literally unable to see every number being negative in every column for every likely outcome?
The vindication is weird, because obviously this kinda sucks but I kept saying it when brexit was actually happening. The ones who benefit most from the EU are the ones that hate it the most.
[QUOTE=Riller;53115985]Are you literally unable to see every number being negative in every column for every likely outcome?[/QUOTE] Short term was always predicted to be close to this.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115991]Short term was always predicted to be close to this.[/QUOTE] This is such a predictable post, pretty much any time someone says anything of how it'll be negative, you'll say that short term was always going to be bad and that somehow the long term is going to be better, even though there is no real evidence to that.
[QUOTE=Pigbear;53115996]This is such a predictable post, pretty much any time someone says anything of how it'll be negative, you'll say that short term was always going to be bad and that somehow the long term is going to be better, even though there is no real evidence to that.[/QUOTE] Pretty sure I've never actually said the long term was going to be better as some sort of fact or even provided proof that it somehow is going to be. But sure, you just keep thinking that, I've remained optimistic.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53116005]Pretty sure I've never actually said the long term was going to be better as some sort of fact or even provided proof that it somehow is going to be. But sure, you just keep thinking that, I've remained optimistic.[/QUOTE] "Optimism" is hardly a good reason to make such a drastic political choice.
[QUOTE=Tetracycline;53115712]I wish poor uneducated people didn't suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect along with being taught pro-selfish individualistic ideologies. If they weren't SO certain of their correctness and aptitude then they would be far less likely to fall for reactionary bullshit like Brexit (or [sp]Trump[/sp])[/QUOTE] I don't find it surprising that these people were easily led to believe the EU is terrible, or lost their trust in politics in general. They've been neglected for decades now. Trump won for the same reason.
[QUOTE=zupadupazupadude;53116042]I don't find it surprising that these people were easily led to believe the EU is terrible, or lost their trust in politics in general. They've been neglected for decades now. Trump won for the same reason.[/QUOTE] My opinions on these people over the past couple years has gone from, "they're morons" to "I should respect their opinions" and then back to "they're morons" and I'm pretty sure that's where it's going to stay. With all the things happening recently it's been frustratingly difficult to feel much sympathy for the people who caused it. Even though I know I should.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] I mean I guess it's hypothetically possible that Jennifer Lawrence will give me a blowjob tomorrow but I think it's pretty unlikely. I'll keep my mind open for all potential outcomes though.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] This is the same logic that climate change deniers use.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115645]Says it all really.[/QUOTE] Lemme try this: [QUOTE]The government also doesn't say that other unexplored outcomes will be better.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115991]Short term was always predicted to be close to this.[/QUOTE] I'd say a decade and a half is a pretty long time to be in a slump. On the other hand, the universe [I]is[/I] only about 13.8 billion years old, so maybe on a mid-term scale of a billion or two years, it might be positive? Hard to say really before we get the forecasts for year 63025 in tbh.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53116005]Pretty sure I've never actually said the long term was going to be better as some sort of fact or even provided proof that it somehow is going to be. But sure, you just keep thinking that, I've remained optimistic.[/QUOTE] So you admit it's definitely bad in the short term, and that there's no evidence that it'll be better in the long term. Do you see why Brexit is a bad idea now
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53115991]Short term was always predicted to be close to this.[/QUOTE] woah woah hold up there boilrig, [I]predicted?[/I] i thought brexit was a black box, whose impact couldn't be projected or predicted? what changed?
[QUOTE=Cloak Raider;53116988]woah woah hold up there boilrig, [I]predicted?[/I] i thought brexit was a black box, whose impact couldn't be projected or predicted? what changed?[/QUOTE] Nothing, I've always maintained there will be short term damage, its the long term that remains unpredictable.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53117083]Nothing, I've always maintained there will be short term damage, its the long term that remains unpredictable.[/QUOTE] And so far, the UK is slated to be well behind for the next two decades, well into what most people would call the mid-term period. That's a fair bit of catch-up to do before it can be a good thing.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;53117083]Nothing, I've always maintained there will be short term damage, its the long term that remains unpredictable.[/QUOTE] If the short term is shit and you don't know if the long term is worth it then what the fuck are the positives here??
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