• North Korea seriously considering strike on Guam: Reports, citing state media
    115 replies, posted
[QUOTE=Jim Morrison;52552938]North Korea has zero reason to attack the United States unprovoked.[/QUOTE] North Korea has zero reason.
[QUOTE=DaMastez;52552946]I really hate Trump, but the blame here rests solely on NK's government. They could have sat in their crumbling country, keeping to themselves or even improving the place instead of investing who knows how much money and manpower into their massive military and nuclear weapons programs, all the while pointlessly antagonizing the western world. I mean, they've even managed to piss off China's government with their stupidity.[/QUOTE] It lies on both - more so North Korea, but Trump isn't helping. North Korea is around 95% fault at this for escalating their tests with ICBMs/etc, but Trump's hyper aggressive rhetoric and alpha-male-wannabe posturing isn't helping matters that, at the very least, could have the amount of negative consequences reduced under a more level headed and experienced approach.
[QUOTE=Jim Morrison;52552938]So you want to strike fist and attempt to cripple the country and send it into chaos, virtually guaranteeing they have nothing to lose by nuking us? Sorry but I think that is the absolute worst decision possible. There is no half-measure "let's just bomb them and hope it works out" strategy. What happens after? Now you've given North Korea a legitimate reason to fight the United States and have made them a permanent enemy so long as they exist. Either go all the way or don't. Are we going to bomb them again when they rebuild their stocks? How long will such a mad policy go on? Meanwhile, what about the citizens of North Korea who are going to suffer even more? North Korea has zero reason to attack the United States unprovoked.[/QUOTE] The US has zero reason not to engage. Its a tiny nation that attempts to hold the entire region hostage, and one day (very soon) it will be able to. Our intercepter missiles are 96-98% accurate depending on the source, so are you down to allow a 2-4% chance of failure, when the consequences are nuclear hellfire?
Oh dear.
[QUOTE=hippowombat;52552878]One of the shitty parts about waiting is that the longer we wait, weeks, months, years, decades, the longer the people in North Korea are subjected to [I]at best[/I] a tyrannical government that affects their day to day lives, and [I]at worst[/I], grave suffering, rape, infanticide and death for generations.[/QUOTE] That is not an argument without merit. But blame that one on China and the USSR - they could have worked to push NK to be less authoritarian, more livable, but they didn't. Even now, China could push for reform, and make it work, because NK is basically dependent on them. The US worked to keep what happened to North Korea from happening in the South - we probably could have done more to soften the regimes of of Syngman Rhee and Park Chung-hee, but we made sure the country was prosperous and we made sure the people were able to protest and revolt to clean out their own would-be tyrants. Say what you will about the capitalist strongmen we sponsored, but at least none of them came even close to the level of evil that the Kim dynasty has.
is the video in the source fucked for anyone else?
Please can we just nuke their artillery and facilities already
[QUOTE=DaMastez;52552989]NK has zero reason to have been antagonizing the west for the past however many years. NK has zero reason to spend vast amount of very limited resources maintaining a massive military and nuclear weapons program. NK still does this things. Heck, Hitler had zero reason to carry out the Holocaust, but he did. Stalin had zero reason to do the Great Purge, but he did. Not everyone in a position of power will act in a way you would consider rational, stop assuming they will.[/QUOTE] they have a lot of reasons to continue antagonizing the west, from their perspective they see it as their only possible method of survival (Kim himself claims to have "learned from gaddafi" and he thinks these constant shows of power will keep him from getting taken out like saddam/gaddafi/etc
North Korea - 'our missiles can only just reach Guam'
It feels like North Korea is going to fuck my plans up for later this year.
When I think back to their other launches - it'll probably be like [URL="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/2f/39/17/2f391753dc844a2a33b012d241dd5e93.jpg"]this[/URL]. But joking aside - I feel NK's blustering has gone on long enough, but Trump's just poked and poked Kim so he's finally just snapped and said" Fine I'll do. I'll do it! Watch me!" like some teenager arguing with his parents. But what do we expect from a snivelling teenager in charge of his dad's "utopia"? He's way over his head with this - especially since he kept touting at how good his security forces were when the CIA were close enough to Kim on multiple occasions during his 'test launches' to assassinate him (I can't find the news article on it at the moment but it would definitely be embarrassing for NK's security if it were true). Then there's the fact the US has anti-ICBM systems set up around NK to shoot down any rockets NK fires, and you can guarantee NK would be wiped off the map as a result. A guaranteed response from everyone else on NK and yet he still blusters and blows about how he's all powerful and that we should cower in fear. Absolutely pitiful. It's one thing to guarantee any 'attack' NK does will be destined to fail and it'll be destroyed, but it's another for NK's handler (China) to tell it to sit it's fat ass down and listen for once so it wouldn't surprise me if even China has had enough of Kim and wouldn't do much if there was a 'response' against him.
I'm of the opinion that NK is, for all its bravado, never really going to do anything...we endure countless news stories about scary thing being imminent and then literally nothing happens. Sure, Trump being in the mix ups the scare factor, but is there anything to - for lack of a better term - make this worth caring about more than all the other things NK have said/done? I know the general NK situation itself doesn't bear ignoring, but this just seems like another Wednesday.
[QUOTE=Jim Morrison;52552938]North Korea has zero reason to attack the United States unprovoked.[/QUOTE] This would be a relevant point to make if Pyongyang was, itself, a rational entity. [i]It isn't.[/i] I'm not expecting Guam to get glassed but I'm not going to be surprised if it does happen. The regine's batshit fucking crazy and there's no guarantee they'll think 'Oh the US hasn't done anything to us to warrant attack so we will hold our fire'. It's also worth noting that, in all technicality, we have been in a state of war with North Korea since 1951. The armistice that 'ended' the Korean War is just that: An armistice. It is not a formal cessation of hostilities and either nation is well within their right to start throwing explosives at the other for no reason beyond 'I'm bored let's blow shit up'. Will any engagement between the two powers be a bloodbath of a clusterfuck? Yes. Yes it will be. But at this point it's an unavoidable bloodbath, and all we can do is find the way to minimize its scope. And that may very well be precision strikes intended to cripple their ability to wage war on anyone else. Or perhaps that's parking an M1A2 AIM on Kim's front porch. I don't know. Mattis probably does.
Decades of cool headed Presidents haven't been able to achieve anything with dismantling North Korea's nuclear program and the rhetoric was already bad under Obama and Bush, we just chose to ignore it because of everything going on in the Middle East and the fact that their threats weren't backed up by their technological capabilities. Meanwhile they've passed every red line we set for their nuclear program and now have achieved the technology needed to back up their threats in a much shorter span of time than we predicted. (Which is a question that begs to be answered) I'm in favor of seeing how the sanctions work before we do anything preemptive but we really need to stop with the false red lines and empty threats on our part.
[QUOTE=Charades;52553262] I'm in favor of seeing how the sanctions work before we do anything preemptive but we really need to stop with the false red lines and empty threats on our part.[/QUOTE] North Korea is a perfect case study regarding the lack of efficacy of sanctions on rogue states. We've been sanctioning them into the ground for decades and it has done precisely fuck all to slow their progress down, moreover, their state run media uses the sanctions as propaganda to demonize us and to maintain their grip on power. [i]At best[/i] sanctions are a feel-good measure for the states issuing them, at worst, they just make the problem worse.
[QUOTE=TestECull;52553394]North Korea is a perfect case study regarding the lack of efficacy of sanctions on rogue states. We've been sanctioning them into the ground for decades and it has done precisely fuck all to slow their progress down, moreover, their state run media uses the sanctions as propaganda to demonize us and to maintain their grip on power. [I]At best[/I] sanctions are a feel-good measure for the states issuing them, at worst, they just make the problem worse.[/QUOTE] Sanctions aren't perfect (they aren't really even good) but there is really no other tool to impose policy on a nation other than to encourage regime change, either covertly (funding resistance/opposition forces) or overtly (invading, disabling command and control, imprisoning/killing government leaders). In this case the former is not really viable and the latter is enormously expensive both in terms of treasure and blood. I'm not really sure what some of the people in this thread and the other one are talking about when they say that the US should have acted more directly in the past. When was the best time to invade North Korea? Which president should have done it?
They're not going to fucking nuke guam. You think if they were gonna nuke guam they'd fucking tweet it at us?
[QUOTE=proboardslol;52553481]They're not going to fucking nuke guam. You think if they were gonna nuke guam they'd fucking tweet it at us?[/QUOTE] I think the tweet is just someone sharing the news which was posted on the official NK media site.
[QUOTE=TestECull;52553394]North Korea is a perfect case study regarding the lack of efficacy of sanctions on rogue states. We've been sanctioning them into the ground for decades and it has done precisely fuck all to slow their progress down, moreover, their state run media uses the sanctions as propaganda to demonize us and to maintain their grip on power. [i]At best[/i] sanctions are a feel-good measure for the states issuing them, at worst, they just make the problem worse.[/QUOTE] The strategy behind the sanctions has mostly worked, we're just dealing with a regime that has been able to weather most of the inner strife caused by their economic woes, somewhat like Castro. I imagine with the droughts and floods they've had in the past few years they're probably worst off now than they ever have been economically and it could be a ticking time bomb until people are far more hungry than they are loyal to Kim. I don't think it will bring him to the negotiation tables though if it hasn't already and that's the problem with this strategy.
[QUOTE=RedDagger;52553221]I'm of the opinion that NK is, for all its bravado, never really going to do anything...we endure countless news stories about scary thing being imminent and then literally nothing happens. Sure, Trump being in the mix ups the scare factor, but is there anything to - for lack of a better term - make this worth caring about more than all the other things NK have said/done? I know the general NK situation itself doesn't bear ignoring, but this just seems like another Wednesday.[/QUOTE] At this point I'm not entirely sure it's NK we need to be afraid of, it's the US taking a bite.
[QUOTE=Charades;52553543]The strategy behind the sanctions has mostly worked,[/QUOTE] Mmm, yes, in the same way I'm mostly a millionaire working at my ~30,000/year job. The sanctions have done nothing more than fuel Kim's propaganda machine. Unless the intended effect was to help the regime secure its grip on power while allowing the regime to justify a nuclear program to the people it's oppressing they've failed HARD. North Koreans are still treated like absolute shit, the regime still carries on with atrocities, and they have nukes + ICBMs. Remind me again what positive effect the sanctions have had? Because as far as I can see they've done very little.
[QUOTE=TestECull;52553768]Mmm, yes, in the same way I'm mostly a millionaire working at my ~30,000/year job. The sanctions have done nothing more than fuel Kim's propaganda machine. Unless the intended effect was to help the regime secure its grip on power while allowing the regime to justify a nuclear program to the people it's oppressing they've failed HARD. North Koreans are still treated like absolute shit, the regime still carries on with atrocities, and they have nukes + ICBMs. Remind me again what positive effect the sanctions have had? Because as far as I can see they've done very little.[/QUOTE] The sanctions effectively put North Korea in a situation where they rely on China entirely for trade. These latest rounds of sanctions were put together in cooperation with China to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/05/un-north-korea-sanctions-nikki-haley[/url] We should probably see how these rounds of sanctions go before we do anything over the top, but as I said earlier we need to stop the fake red lines and empty threats.
[QUOTE=myon;52552576]Is it just me, or did shit really blow up today?[/QUOTE] thats why you don't fucking respond to everything from noth korea by saying "we'll make you pay!" they fucking double down on that shit. [editline]9th August 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=TestECull;52553394]North Korea is a perfect case study regarding the lack of efficacy of sanctions on rogue states. We've been sanctioning them into the ground for decades and it has done precisely fuck all to slow their progress down, moreover, their state run media uses the sanctions as propaganda to demonize us and to maintain their grip on power. [i]At best[/i] sanctions are a feel-good measure for the states issuing them, at worst, they just make the problem worse.[/QUOTE] we have been but china and russia and every third world country out there hasn't. the latest rounds though were signed off by china and russia so that might have more force. really the problem always remains that china controls the border with north korea and they determine what goes in and what comes out
[QUOTE=TestECull;52553768]Remind me again what positive effect the sanctions have had? Because as far as I can see they've done very little.[/QUOTE] NK's military is under-developed and under-equipped and as a whole most of the nation is stuck several decades back technologically, pretty sure sanctions have something to do with that. The NK propaganda machine works because the regime has completely closed off communication with the outside world. They can do that regardless of whether people are hungry or not, that has nothing to do with sanctions. You can't force a change in ideology just by blocking trade, but sanctions have clearly had some effect on the capabilities of the state. Still, as long as the ruling elite clings on there won't be any radical positive change happening in NK. If we think getting rid of the regime is really important, the peaceful options are limited.
[QUOTE=Wormy;52554173]I feel like war is inevitable at some point. War seems like the only way to put an end to the North Korean regime, but I would love to be wrong.[/QUOTE] If [i]ending[/i] the North Korean regime is what we think is necessary, then yes, definitely. However, I still stick by the prediction that nobody will consider it necessary enough to do anything, and the regime will just be left to fester and its population to suffer for decades to come. Trumps recent antics has thrown that into slight question as of the last few days through.
Pretty brilliant move on NK's part - I guess this is kinda akin to Obama's red line, because the US can't go to war with NK over them making this threat, even though Trump just talked fire and fury.
Seems like NK read Trump's bluff.
[QUOTE=Str4fe;52554390]Seems like NK read Trump's bluff.[/QUOTE] Could also be peceived as the world in general being tired of NK's shit. China, SK have reason to be concerned by this provocation though - no matter what happens, the brunt of what follows is going to fall on their shoulders more than it will on the US sitting on the other side of the world, and the NK, without a doubt, is going to produce one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters this century if what little we know of the situation deep inside NK from defectors is any indication. No matter which way this blows, it's fucked.
[QUOTE=Charades;52553828]The sanctions effectively put North Korea in a situation where they rely on China entirely for trade. These latest rounds of sanctions were put together in cooperation with China to bring North Korea to the negotiating table.[/quote] I don't see Kim at the negotiating table. Instead I see Kim seriously considering glassing Guam. They've already backfired. Sanctions. Are. Useless.[quote] We should probably see how these rounds of sanctions go before we do anything over the top, but as I said earlier we need to stop the fake red lines and empty threats.[/QUOTE] We already have. We levied new sanctions and Kim responded by looking at Guam with mushroom clouds in his eyes. They're not going to negotiate because of these new sanctions, this much is for sure and certain.[QUOTE=Im Crimson;52554104]NK's military is under-developed and under-equipped and as a whole most of the nation is stuck several decades back technologically, pretty sure sanctions have something to do with that. The NK propaganda machine works because the regime has completely closed off communication with the outside world. They can do that regardless of whether people are hungry or not, that has nothing to do with sanctions. You can't force a change in ideology just by blocking trade, but sanctions have clearly had some effect on the capabilities of the state. Still, as long as the ruling elite clings on there won't be any radical positive change happening in NK. If we think getting rid of the regime is really important, the peaceful options are limited.[/QUOTE] They may still be stuck in the 1960s technologically, but the sanctions haven't done what they're supposed to do. They were supposed to shift the regime away from its current path, dissuade it from building nukes, and convince it that it should become far more like the South if not fully re-unify with the South. They haven't. Instead we have a mad despot lording over what's effectively a huge slave plantation while waving nukes around like they're toys. I have and will continue to maintain that sanctions do not work, and North Korea is the brown standard for their effectiveness.
I wonder how strong our anti-ICBM defense is. Like, what if the military has some [I]really[/I] strong anti-nuke tech. The US loves fear-mongering so we obviously wouldn't know until it really came down to it, but it would be neat to see that we've been wearing bulletproof armour this whole time.
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