Here we go again. Russia is trying to recreate the USSR and Western nations struggling too hard with the rise of white nationalism to do a thing about it. Is this how we enter the second cold war?
10 years later..
Enter it? We've been in it.
the cold war never ended
What exactly would they do if Georgia became a NATO member, begin a full-scale invasion? I highly doubt they would considering that'd mean we'd immediately invoke Article 5, minus the US of course because Putin's orange butt-buddy's in charge there.
People like to say this, but I think it really ended in 1991, but we didn't pay attention to the oligarchs who would take hold in the intervening years of peace. I'd like to say Cold War II started with Crimea back in 2013.
Who knows, maybe it never really ended and Putin was masterminding this stuff through the 2000s.
Slowly? Well, Make that more very slowly as long Russia (with now Syria also supported) recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as more of Vassal States than Unrecognized nations with sending their military to defied the new Status quo they made.
This may or not will going happen for now.
It's going to be a wonderful day when the Russian people democratically elect a good leader and depose these oligarchs that have ruined a beautiful country and destroyed its international reputation.
It needs to go farther than that. They have puppets in other governments. Brexit, Trump, and the AfD in Germany are products of Putin's goals.
and now that they have a russian puppet in charge of the US, russia now has full leeway to do virtually anything they want.
is putin not a continuation of past Tsars? Because as I understand it Russia has always been 90% slaves 10% ruthless masters since its inception and has always been that way even under its communist phase. There never has been democracy in Russia and there never will be because its such a foreign concept to the elites who are the only ones who can make it happen and even then they having nothing to gain from democracy.
A Cold War is an equal conflict for power.
A Cold War is emerging between the west and China with China's attempts to influence Africa, but Russia has nowhere near the capabilities to commit to what is actually a Cold War. They're desperately trying to promote that image to show their strength, but never fall for their propaganda as they break international law and violate the sovereignity of their neighbors, Russia is weak, afraid, and willing to do anything to prevent their people from desiring change.
its little things like this that let them act like a superpower at no cost to themselves. taking territory through technical manipulation of the border a few miles at a time isn't going to likely result in bloodshed. ukraine though was a problem because people started noticing the bodybags and they were forced to pull back because of that
Putin genuinely has massive support in Russia though. Sure he cheats the elections to ensure a victory, but even without fudging the numbers, I'm pretty sure he's been forecasted at least a slight win in every election he's ran in.
Russian's are unfortunately suffering from a similar mindset as the German's before them. They feel weak, embarrassed, and are throwing their full support behind a 'strongman', in hopes that he can bring them back to their former glory. Nationalism+Pride are a dangerous thing.
Trump is a symptom of this exact thing, except in the case of America, they never fucking lost their might, but rather took to quieter means in ensuring "world peace", and as a result, Obama seemed weak since he wasn't bombastically fighting an enemy.
No, you're right. This entire thing started around 2007 and back then people thought it was just another conspiracy theory
NATO should immediately invite nations such as Georgia and Ukraine tbh, Russia can shout and bluster all they damn well like but what right have they to decide what occurs beyond the borders of their own nation? I mean, what cassus belli/"formal" justification is there?
If it weren't for the horrific death toll and economic shitshow it would cause it's almost tempting to see the Russians incur NATO military action against them and ruin the country in a way the Third Reich never could, but such sentiment serves nobody any real good and unfortunately Putin is another master following a long line of predecessors such as Brezhnev, Stalin and the Tsars.
It's frustrating because this infighting and petty shit with the Russian Empire Federation is drawing focus from the power plays being made by nations such as China spreading their influence towards Africa and slowly seizing parcels of the South China Sea like a plague of locusts.
Ah, all ya people and all your red scare.
As for south osetian deal, here have a really nice read that details conflict and EXPECIALLY pay attention to page 209, where it details how after Saakashvili first annouced call to ceasefire adn then shelled Tshinvali afterwards, cause apparently you all need a reminder
I remember how delayed was coverage in western press, heck i even argued it out here, cause report on western media only started a day LATER, when russian troops actually started pushing back Georgian forces from continuing a ethnic cleansing.
Thing is, sanctions is actually a decent solution. We might not be able to clearly see it, but Russia has definitely suffered a lot under the sanctions imposed upon them after Crimea. But one
would have to keep putting on new sanctions and maintaining old one's to ensure it keeps being effective. With Trump in charge of the US, and refusing to enforce these sanctions, Russia
gains the ability to slowly creep back to being able to do shit like this.
While I am aware of "Russky Bad" sentiment over here, I will agree with Kari. The conflict in 2008 was started by Saakashvili, and universally all of my Adjara based relatives agree that Saakashvili was too confident that he got solid political backing by Bush and US in general, thinking Russia would be too dumb to retaliate.
He was wrong and Russia did retaliate. Dont forget that Russia gad peacekeeping troops supporting the region since 90s.
I will not disagree that clashes on the Ossetian-Georgian border were from both sides, but just blatabtly shelling acity with artillery while everyone sleeping is the real crime in the conflict.
Just be sure to conveniently ignore page 211 where the Russians pushed into Georgia during another ceasefire to occupy territory while accompanying South Ossetian militias committed human rights violations.
You are part of the problem with Russia.
go read further about part where georgians aimed at civilian objects.
Ah yes, because it was Saakashvili that put Russian troops in the Roki Tunnel before Georgian troops committed the attack that supposedly provoked a conflict.
Thanks to Wikileaks, we also have this gem of a report from the US embassy in Tbilisi:
"All the evidence available to the country team supports Saakashvili's statement that this fight was not Georgia's original intention. Key Georgian officials who would have had responsibility for an attack on South Ossetia have been on leave, and the Georgians only began mobilizing August 7 once the attack was well underway. As late as 2230 last night Georgian MOD and MFA officials were still hopeful that the unilateral cease-fire announced by President Saakashvili would hold. Only when the South Ossetians opened up with artillery on Georgian villages, did the offensive to take Tskhinvali begin."
This idea that it was really Georgian hubris that caused a one-sided war is pure Russian propaganda, full stop. Of course your Adjaran relatives want an excuse to blame Saakashvili, he was universally reviled in all the semi-autonomous states, particularly in Adjara.
Gee, I wonder why. After Soviet collapse and particularly after landscape changes in 2003 in Ukraine and Georgia, then later Kosovo, certain politicians felt enabled to revise the Soviet-era arrangement for minorities (autonomous oblasts, ASSRs, etc.) as part of the momentum for liberalization, ultimately creating a new 21st century arrangement they thought could then be cemented given further ties with NATO. This is part of wider post-Cold War shifts that altered how politicians judged the landscape, such as the decision to engage in regime change targeting an Arab nationalist regime in the M.E. in 2003, expansion of the EU/NATO in Eastern Europe beginning in 2002, and abandonment of the 1972 ABM treaty in 2002.
Leading up to the 2008 war were Georgian movements in 06 and 07 in Abkhazia, related to a rebellion, and South Ossetia, related to its elections, who then lobbied Russia for recognition following Kosovo's landmark independence. These two Georgian actions represented new movements for change following a conflict frozen in the early 90s, stimulated by shifts in the balance of power on an international scale.
This is not an easy conflict to assign blame to. Russia acts aggressively to cracks in frozen conflicts and a Soviet-era territorial and political arrangement that many pro-Western nationalists resent as weakening them or preserving influence that slows or halts liberalization and accession to NATO. But it does so often to the benefit of minorities and territories that are historically pro-Soviet and economically dependent on Russia, and would become cultural and political junior partners in a new, pro-West arrangement. However, Western expansion was inevitable and the nationalists themselves have legitimate grievances that usually date back to the Russian civil war or WW2.
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