:siren: [b]This data is sampled from a very small sample, so don't take these figures too seriously[/b] :siren:
Note: This post is a condensed version of a [url=http://tf2stats.net/forums/index.php/topic,14.msg24.html]larger post I've been updating on tf2stats[/url], so if you'd like more information on how the old drop system worked, and how they compared, check that out as well.
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/new_drop_rate.png[/img]
This graph shows the distance [i]between[/i] drops. The X axis is the number of minutes passed, and the Y axis is the number of recorded drops at that interval.
As we can see, the consistency is gone. But also gone are the later surges of people getting items at 50, 75, 100, etc minutes. So it appears that you'll consistently get a drop once every 15-75 minutes or so. Granted that's a big window, we're assuming the ceiling is ~75 minutes assuming there isn't a server problem.
The other question many have asked is how many drops you get in a daily session. Right now I don't have any concrete answers as it's too early to get much data, but some early estimates can again be made.
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/drop_rate_session.png[/img]
You'll notice at the 11th hour the drop rate has dropped significantly. This might mean that some of the idlers have hit their limit after 11 hours (note this figure will vary depending on how "lucky" they get with their drop rate times). It could also just be an anomaly due to lack of data.
[b]How long?[/b]
Looking at a larger data sample, we can start to see a more concrete trend of when idling stops being useful. First, lets look at an updated drop rate graph. The actual rates here have become polluted by people being 'capped', so the actual rates have already become fairly useless. More useful is the graph trend itself.
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/drop_rate_over_session.png[/img]
Note the the drop at 15 hours, with a decline starting as early as 5 hours.
In another graph, we see the raw drop data
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/drops_over_session.png[/img]
While the incline is somewhat more severe here, you can still see the hard cut at 15 hours, as well as a plateau around the 5-7 hour mark.
This seems to imply that even in the unlucky cases, playing or idling more than 15 hours is not going to net you any additional drops.
[b] But how many per day?[/b]
Some notes about this graph, before I post it: We don't know exactly when the new drop system went live. Because of this, some data was cut off to ensure we got a nice separation from the old system. In return, some drops were lost. Hence you'll see some people getting a very low number of drops. That's not necessarily true since they might have simply gotten those drops before my cut off.
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/total_drops.png[/img]
The number standing out right now is 8 ± 2. After which the number of drop steeply decreases. Drops after this could be due to crafting, achievements, pending items before the system changeover, and any other number of possible ways of obtaining items. However, the number 8 stands out pretty well right now, so if I had to guess, I'd say that's it. It appears to vary a bit day to day, but the deviation seems to be around 2.
[b]How many per week?[/b]
We know now that there is a daily and weekly cap. The daily, as mentioned above, is around 8 ± 2. The weekly however, is much higher.
[img]http://static.tf2stats.net:81/images/drop_total.png[/img]
You'll notice nobody seems to have more than 22 drops. The most common number is 14, with a fairly wide deviation. So the guess at this point is that the weekly cap is 14 ± 4. The drops above this are likely due to crafting, or other data anomalies (Sam and max items, etc)
I think they should raise the limit of it to around 20 hours.
Tbh, I like to play 2 hours or a little more, and I might go back to the game for an hour.
Though... Iunno, my luck is pure shit. So I doubt drop rates will increase in the time frames that I play.
EDIT:
Also, when does this reset? Monday?
Informative.
You should show the old graph as comparison, the spikes were very pronounced.
But Im glad to see the Source Tools data is useful ;)
6 more days of this "unknown" and we will get a better idea.
What I worry is that the week resets are on a specific day,and that day would be like... Monday, so we only had an allocation of a fraction of a week. It would be worse though that what we see now, this drought everyone is having since early morning, is caused by already reaching the WEEKLY limit of 7-8 drops [ugh]
So minimum time for drop is ~15, while max is ~75
And the cap is ~11 hours a week.
Correct?
Extremely useful.
Looking forward to graph made from a larger amount of data.
I feel liked I'm getting timed now from valve now on how long I can play. I fucking hate that feeling.
I wasn't aware it had been implement as no TF2 update has occured. Perhaps, it was server side. Well very interesting. Thanks for the info.
[QUOTE=Smashman;21485013]I wasn't aware it had been implement as no TF2 update has occured. Perhaps, it was server side. Well very interesting. Thanks for the info.[/QUOTE]
The drop system is completely separate from TF2.
[quote]04/21/2010 7:47 --------------------- START ---------------------
04/21/2010 8:42 - Backburner
04/21/2010 9:28 - Razorback
04/21/2010 9:58 - Flare Gun
04/21/2010 10:37 - Pain Train
04/21/2010 11:29 - Razorback
04/21/2010 12:15 - Homewrecker
04/21/2010 13:18 - Ubersaw
04/21/2010 14:19 --------------------- START ---------------------
04/21/2010 14:54 - Equalizer
04/21/2010 15:37 - Buff Banner
04/21/2010 16:13 - Bonk! Atomic Punch
04/21/2010 16:53 --------------------- START ---------------------
[/quote]
And it's 6:06 here now,so I think I maybe reached my limit.
[editline]06:07PM[/editline]
I think they maybe limited drop system to around 10 items per week.
[QUOTE=Thundermanz;21485065]And it's 6:06 here now,so I think I maybe reached my limit.
[editline]06:07PM[/editline]
I think they maybe limited drop system to around 10 items per week.[/QUOTE]
I think it's 10 items per day,cause while playing for 1h i got 8 drops.
Still nothing,after I got 10 items.
10 per day sounds good to me. Per week on the other hand. Not so good. Although I can't see Valve allowing 70 per week.
[IMG]https://dl.dropbox.com/u/1961029/dropsystem_pilk.png[/IMG]
From Steam forum.
That was quite informative.
Well this is odd,my friend got 12 drops and then nothing.
It's probably around 10 item limit,or it's time limit.
Can someone give em their ST file?
so far I've gotten from 5 hours of playing is 5 items.
<_<
[QUOTE=Thundermanz;21486212]
From Steam forum.[/QUOTE]
So idlers are still gonna get more items?
seems like i already reached my limit this week
01:01 AM The Pain Train [Level 5]
01:53 AM The Homewrecker [Level 5]
and nothing after that
Idled for around 3-4 hours, gotten 4 items.
5:29 started idle session
6:26 KGB
7:09 sandman
7:46 buff banner
8:25 ubersaw
current time is 9:01
So basically I should get 5-6 more items before it stops for a week?
[QUOTE=Thundermanz;21486212]*Plik's dumb image*[/QUOTE]
The guy who made this was pulling all the data out of his ass, just so y' know.
played for about an hour
got a hat.
like the way this new drop system works.
Now source tools shall just be used to reset my TF2 settings.
Wait so is the new drop system already implemented?
Yes
I played for 3 hours and got a hat :3 and 2 items
Wow,it's shitting hats now.
And I still didn't get one. :frown:
heh thunder don't feel bad, played for 5 hours today in total.
4 items.
I really doubt they even implemented it, my drop times are still the same. Getting something every ~30 minutes.
[QUOTE=Ray-The-Sun;21486617]The guy who made this was pulling all the data out of his ass, just so y' know.[/QUOTE]
He also chose arbitrary labels like "x" and "some". It's great as a visual representation of what Valve seems to want to do with the drop system. It can really help alleviate some concerns over whether idling is entirely dead or not.
3 items after 1,5 hour of playing tf2, GREAT SUCCES!
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