There's no pattern behind the wrench drops, but they can be predicted - Games

As Drunken F00l got his wrench everyone went apeshit thinking he had exploited the algorythm, or somehow found out a pattern behind the drops. When asked for it, he said he just used statistics. At the bottom of [URL="http://www.tf2items.com/lists/golden_wrenches/"]this[/URL] page are shown some statistic like average time between drops and the average time between drops is strangely almost an exact hour. Now I'd like to know. Is it really possible to predict when a wrench will drop? Because it looks totally random to me and it looks like DF cheated it by knowing something we don't know. [B]EDIT: I think I've found what we need: a Fibonacci Retracements calculator. It has to be able to plot trends and calculate their continuation. Please post here if you find one.[/B]

DF getting a wrench was like a slap to the face

DF used math and luck.

Maybe. It might be a some hidden stuff about that. I don't feel for looking and thinking if their is anything common between them all.

Out of all the people using statistics DF just happens to get one? I'm not buying it. I'm sure he's figured it out and either Valve asked him to shut up or he's keeping it under wraps himself. Not that it matters anyway. I'm just hoping we can get these wrenches out of the way so the real update can take the stage.

Valve should have chosen when to release each wrench themselves.

Drunken Fool didn't predict one of the first wrenches using statistics,it was someone called Ranma they got it down to the second and predicted it almost a day before, I'm sure after seeing that was when DF started to look at predicting them

drunken fool had literally, an entire backpack page full of refined metals, and another one half filled with hats. it's possible he uncrafted a lot of refined into reclaimed and scrap before valve removed it, recrafted it all, and crafted a [b]LOT[/b] of shit. in other words, i'm doubting that he magically predicted it

And who is Drunken Fool

The guy that created tf2stats and an asshole.

There's no pattern behind the wrench drops, but they can be predicted... Dude, that's a [B]huge contradiction[/B]. If something can be predicted, it can because it has a pattern that it follows. DF will deny that he knows how to get it, because Valve will take his away if he admits to it. You can't honestly tell me that he made one craft the whole day and got it by chance. Bull fucking shit. Look at his item history.

[QUOTE=Zukriuchen;23175396]And who is Drunken Fool[/QUOTE] Are you living in cave or something

[QUOTE=EvilMattress;23175440]The guy that created tf2stats and an asshole.[/QUOTE] HURR DURR HE'S AN ASSHOLE you're just saying that because he got a golden wrench do I need to remind you that the same guy made the steamstats idler back in the day

Ah well, at least it wasn't youme... Or did it stop being cool to hate him?

Goddamit, isn't a community weapon enough for him?

[QUOTE=Hellduck;23175478]Ah well, at least it wasn't youme... Or did it stop being cool to hate him?[/QUOTE] He's not that bad now.

[QUOTE=JurajIsNotPirat;23175484]Goddamit, isn't a community weapon enough for him?[/QUOTE] this is exactly what valve wants everyone raging at each other stop now

He made tf2items not tf2stats.

I guess every xy crafting attempts (from all players) one Wrench drops. I'm stupid anyway. Also, about rage and shit, I don't rage at the people who got a golden wrench. I mean, if they have no other hobbies and sit in front of their PC and craft all day, fine. I don't want a golden wrench. And all those people who don't want a golden wrench either are the smartest. I mean, those who don't want a golden wrench know that they don't need to feel special. (Boxes incomin')

[QUOTE=Darkomni;23175393]drunken fool had literally, an entire backpack page full of refined metals, and another one half filled with hats. it's possible he uncrafted a lot of refined into reclaimed and scrap before valve removed it, recrafted it all, and crafted a [b]LOT[/b] of shit. in other words, i'm doubting that he magically predicted it[/QUOTE] How the hell can you uncraft, i didn't know about this before.

[QUOTE=Max of S2D;23175496]this is exactly what valve wants everyone raging at each other stop now[/QUOTE] What is it with you and telling people what to do?

[QUOTE=RoBaDoB;23175750]How the hell can you uncraft, i didn't know about this before.[/QUOTE] You just put one reclaimed or a refined metal in the crafting box then it will downgrade itself to three lower metal.

[B]I think I've found what we need: a Fibonacci Retracements calculator. It has to be able to plot trends and calculate their continuation. Please post here if you find one.[/B]

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23175149] [B]EDIT: I think I've found what we need: a Fibonacci Retracements calculator. It has to be able to plot trends and calculate their continuation. Please post here if you find one.[/B][/QUOTE] This? [url]http://www.traderknowledge.com/free-online-fibonacci-retracement-calculator.php[/url] Yes, I did just use google.

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23175872][B]I think I've found what we need: a Fibonacci Retracements calculator. It has to be able to plot trends and calculate their continuation. Please post here if you find one.[/B][/QUOTE] You're an idiot. You're asking for something that can work out a pattern, but there is no pattern according to your title.

[QUOTE=Djokson;23175876]This? [url]http://www.traderknowledge.com/free-online-fibonacci-retracement-calculator.php[/url] Yes, I did just use google.[/QUOTE] No. That's not the type I meant. It needs to plot graphs and accept entire sets of values.

[QUOTE=DatWut?;23175674]I guess every xy crafting attempts (from all players) one Wrench drops. I'm stupid anyway. Also, about rage and shit, I don't rage at the people who got a golden wrench. I mean, if they have no other hobbies and sit in front of their PC and craft all day, fine. I don't want a golden wrench. And all those people who don't want a golden wrench either are the smartest. I mean, those who don't want a golden wrench know that they don't need to feel special. (Boxes incomin')[/QUOTE] Getting a golden wrench does not mean the person does nothing but craft all day. It could be that person just got really lucky with the one craft he did.

Huh, sorry then.

My theory is that DF set up an automatic system that would craft his stuff instantly when a defined condition was met. That's how he got it for sure.

What about this one? [url]http://www.jigaro.com/jigaro/jigarosoftware/sfb/[/url]