March 5th&6th Primaries & Caucuses (Louisiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, and Nebraska)
341 replies, posted
[QUOTE]Following Super Tuesday, five states will have their say in the 2016 presidential race on Saturday.
Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Ben Carson will continue their quest for the Republican nomination. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will battle for the Democratic nomination.
Louisiana will hold the only primary. Both Democrats and Republicans will caucus in Kansas. Republicans will caucus in Kentucky and Maine and Democrats will caucus in Nebraska.
Democrats will caucus in Maine the following day. Republicans will vote in Nebraska May 10 and Democrats in Kentucky May 17.[/QUOTE]
[url]http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/03/when_are_next_republican_democratic_primaries.html[/url]
[t]https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-0/s526x395/12821328_10107291785210920_5775161117338107242_n.jpg?oh=76414c1d493cb29dd86d42b68ede025d&oe=57623845[/t]
Trump has 319
Cruz has 226
Rubio has 110
Kasich has 25
Carson has 8 but I think he dropped out today
Carson did suspend his campaign
Goodnight sweet prince, you were awake for but a fleeting moment, we shall always remember him sleeping in the corner of the GOP debates
Anyway it's now a 3 horse race because kasich is pretty much out of it too
[img]http://puu.sh/nsFrH.png[/img]
this is more representative of how much superdelegates are in the fray.
Betting Trump will keep on trumping, unfortunately.
Hope Sanders will get a few more states. Louisiana is out of the question, that's looking like a Clinton state. My guess is he can get Maine and maybe Nebraska.
[QUOTE=Laferio;49854561][img]http://puu.sh/nsFrH.png[/img][/QUOTE]
Stop please, every thread, she has won 577 to his 386, lumping in superdelegates is just shit posting at this point
The southern primaries are pretty much over and she didn't destroy him, as they move up north he is going to give her a hell of a fight
[QUOTE=cody8295;49853879][t]https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-0/s526x395/12821328_10107291785210920_5775161117338107242_n.jpg?oh=76414c1d493cb29dd86d42b68ede025d&oe=57623845[/t][/QUOTE]
Yeah but a) the contest isn't winner-takes-all and b) Clinton is expected to win overwhelmingly in Florida
[QUOTE=Sableye;49854569]Stop please, every thread, she has won 577 to his 386, lumping in superdelegates is just shit posting at this point
The southern primaries are pretty much over and she didn't destroy him, as they move up north he is going to give her a hell of a fight[/QUOTE]
You're gonna have to elaborate how lumping in superdelegates is shitposting lol.
Superdelegates are a very real thing, and it's important to know the exact numbers.
[QUOTE=Laferio;49854561][img]http://puu.sh/nsFrH.png[/img]
this is more representative of how much superdelegates are in the fray.[/QUOTE]
so in really only light bue matters correct?
[QUOTE=theevilldeadII;49854610]so in really only light bue matters correct?[/QUOTE]
No, all the delegates, super or not, count.
[B]BUT[/B] the dark blue super delegates are [I]subject to change[/I] so while Hillary has them and should be considered winning greatly, it should be kept in the back of one's mind that it can change (but is unlikely).
Can someone explain to a non-USer what exactly delegates are? Are they representatives who will back a candidate? If so why will they toggle their vote based on public opinion? Just slightly confused as to what these votes go towards.
[QUOTE=Laferio;49854598]You're gonna have to elaborate how lumping in superdelegates is shitposting lol.
Superdelegates are a very real thing, and it's important to know the exact numbers.[/QUOTE]
no its not, not until the convention
Way too early to make a thread about this.
[QUOTE=Occlusion;49854856]Can someone explain to a non-USer what exactly delegates are? Are they representatives who will back a candidate? If so why will they toggle their vote based on public opinion? Just slightly confused as to what these votes go towards.[/QUOTE]
If I'm right(hoping I am), delegates cast their votes for a candidate based on preferences of the voters in the state they represent. So yeah, if the state is either pro Bernie or pro Clinton, they will cast their votes for said pro candidate.
Delegates themselves are decided by an election of their own. A party's convention holds a delegate election, once every four years. You then need to run a mini-campaign of your own, and ask your local party for the names and addresses of everyone who lives in your district so you can mail them, requesting their vote. If you win, you become a delegate.
It is a weird process, but they ultimately decide the vote.
[QUOTE=Occlusion;49854856]Can someone explain to a non-USer what exactly delegates are? Are they representatives who will back a candidate? If so why will they toggle their vote based on public opinion? Just slightly confused as to what these votes go towards.[/QUOTE]
Here:
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49829641]In the olden days when nation wide votes were impractical for nominations, political parties would hold party conventions to nominate who would be the national candidate. They did this by having each state send representatives, or delegates, to the convention. These men would discuss who would be best to represent the party in the campaign ahead and vote on who they want to be on the ticket.
Fast forward a a century and a few decades and nation wide voting isn't that difficult a thing anymore. So now, there is a popular vote for each candidate and the number of state delegates to the convention is now divided based on the votes in the state. These delegates [I]must[/I] vote for the person that they represent and are called Pledged Delegates.
Super delegates are unpledged. They are "big name party members", such as important senators or governors or party officials in the Democratic Party (the GOP do [U]not[/U] have super delegates) and are free to vote for whomever they wish in the nomination. They constitute 15% of the total delegate count and so don't make [I]too[/I] big of an impact in the overall convention but still are important on account of who they are, big party leaders. The goal of having superdelegates is to have the party leadership retain a certain amount of control on who gets to represent the party in the national campaign, because contrary to what it seems most people believe, political parties do not have to organize themselves democratically (ironically) and the party leadership having a measure of say in who gets on the ticket helps the party stay focused on a specific set of political platforms and prevent outliers and extremists from sweeping the nomination.
Its effectiveness can be disputed and the superdelegate thing has only been around for 30 years or so, but I think a good point to note is how the Democrats have these and Clinton is retaining a lead in delegate counts (who is the party favorite) against Sanders (the party outlier) where as the GOP have no mechanism for the party to regulate itself and now you have an outlier (Trump) beating out the party favorite (Rubio and/or Cruz).
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Trebgarta;49857514]CGP Grey has wonderful youtube videos on everything about US elections. He should check him out too.[/QUOTE]
I don't think he has one explaining primaries/caucuses and delegates, though.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49857795]I don't think he has one explaining primaries/caucuses and delegates, though.[/QUOTE]
I don't think anyone can...
[QUOTE=Revenge282;49858090]I don't think anyone can...[/QUOTE]
It's really not that complicated.
If anything, it's less complicated than the actual election voting.
anyone got any polls on this state?
[QUOTE=theevilldeadII;49862836]anyone got any polls on this state?[/QUOTE]
some of them haven't been polled in a while i think
Sanders is destroying Clinton in Nebraska and Kansas.
Shilary's delegate gain seems to be slowing down to an almost halt while Bernie is keeping up a good pace.
I really hope Bernie gets nominated, I'm still baffled at the fact that people are willing to support a crook.
[QUOTE=LoganIsAwesome;49873542]Sanders is destroying Clinton in Nebraska and Kansas.[/QUOTE]
Source?
Sanders needs to win Nebraska, Maine and Kansas, IMO. And not get totally blown out in Louisiana.
Michigan too, but Clinton was still leading there last I checked
[editline]5th March 2016[/editline]
Michigan is probably more important than all three of those, though. If he gets beat badly in Michigan, he's in a rough spot.
[QUOTE=rilez;49873647]Sanders needs to win Nebraska, Maine and Kansas, IMO. And not get totally blown out in Louisiana.
Michigan too, but Clinton was still leading there last I checked
[editline]5th March 2016[/editline]
Michigan is probably more important than all three of those, though. If he gets beat badly in Michigan, he's in a rough spot.[/QUOTE]
538 has him at a less than 1% chance of winning Michigan. IF that changes at all, it will never go above 10%.
He will probably win everywhere except Detroit.
[url]http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/march-5th-gop/[/url]
Site is a little slower getting results but generally tends to be more accurate
[QUOTE=patq911;49873720]538 has him at a less than 1% chance of winning Michigan. IF that changes at all, it will never go above 10%.
He will probably win everywhere except Detroit.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, the polls don't look great. I find it strange that he's polling poorly in Michigan, of all places.
For his sake, I hope they can pull off another Oklahoma turn around in Michigan. Three wins tonight would help. The town hall could help him, too.
[editline]5th March 2016[/editline]
Looking at the 538 projection, their last weighted poll was conducted March 1st. So I'd take that 99% projection with a grain of salt
[editline]5th March 2016[/editline]
I'd be interested to see a poll conducted after ST, considering most of his effort in Michigan took place afterwards
I ended up having to be out of town today, and didn't have nearly enough warning to fill out a absentee ballot request. So I don't get to vote against trump in our primary... Sorry, America.
[QUOTE=rilez;49873647]Sanders needs to win Nebraska, Maine and Kansas, IMO. And not get totally blown out in Louisiana.[/QUOTE]
God damn.. I have no idea how Bernie will win the Black Vote. That community has the Clintons on deity status.
Kansas called for Cruz
[editline]5th March 2016[/editline]
Or well maybe not, only one site called it with 12% polled
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.