Canadian Economy likely to report second quarter of contraction
20 replies, posted
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21657396-recession-may-already-have-started-government-which-facing-election?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/aroughride
[QUOTE]THERE are many ways for a government to spin the news that the economy it manages may have entered a recession. Stephen Harper, Canada’s Conservative prime minister tried breeziness. “I’ve seen a lot worse,” he said at the Calgary Stampede, a rodeo that attracts about 1m visitors (pictured). Joe Oliver, the finance minister, went for stubborn optimism. “We are going to see solid economic growth this year,” he insisted.
The numbers argue against him. The economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. The second was no better, says Emanuella Enenajor, an economist at Bank of America. If so, the economy was technically in recession. This is awkward for Mr Harper, who hopes to win another term in office in a national election to be held on October 19th.
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[QUOTE]But with the sharp fall in oil prices over the past year, Canada now threatens to move from leader to laggard. The consensus forecast for economic growth is around 2% in 2015, which would put Canada in the middle of the pack of G7 economies, but that will probably be revised downward. In that rich-country group, only France and Italy have higher unemployment rates.
Growth is now dangerously dependent on consumer credit and rising house prices, both of which could swiftly drop. The average price of a detached house in Vancouver is C$1.4m ($1.1m); in Toronto it is C$1.1m. The central bank thinks housing is overvalued by as much as 30%; the biggest domestic risk to growth is over-borrowing by consumers, most of which is housing related, it warns. Philip Cross, a former chief economist at Statistics Canada, points out that the share of income that households need to service their debt is at an all-time low. But he worries about what will happen if interest rates or unemployment suddenly rise. Canada, which escaped the worst effects of the rich world’s credit bubble, may be creating a smaller one of its own.[/QUOTE]
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It's well past time to kick Harper out. Fingers crossed this fall.
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;48163521]It's well past time to kick Harper out. Fingers crossed this fall.[/QUOTE]
Damn straight. He's done nothing good for Canada.
The Conservative government here in Newfoundland even shut down the Confederation building for fucksakes, I don't know why, there was no reason given.
Why are so many seats in the Canadian Senate vacant? I know it is a tad off topic but it seems to be quite a few considering the Senate's size.
[QUOTE=LoganIsAwesome;48163615]Why are so many seats in the Canadian Senate vacant? I know it is a tad off topic but it seems to be quite a few considering the Senate's size.[/QUOTE]
Because of expense scandals in the Senate exposed a couple years ago, and Harper isn't bothered enough to appoint more.
No one should be surprised given the spectacularly shit track record of neoliberal economic policies. The fact that the country could witness what Mike Harris did to Ontario and say "oh yeah, we want that but everywhere" makes me sick to my stomach. We need to heave Steve in a bad way.
[QUOTE=AtomicWaffle;48163749]No one should be surprised given the spectacularly shit track record of neoliberal economic policies. The fact that the country could witness what Mike Harris did to Ontario and say "oh yeah, we want that but everywhere" makes me sick to my stomach. We need to heave Steve in a bad way.[/QUOTE]
Would you not say that this is more to do with oil prices, which Harper has little to no control over?
[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;48163843]Would you not say that this is more to do with oil prices, which Harper has little to no control over?[/QUOTE]
Harper's the one who's been doing his best to turn Canada into an oil state, first and foremost, at the expense of the environment and Canada's international reputation. The Harper government has muzzled all government scientists working in climate or environmental research and they can only talk to reporters with government approval -- because talking about climate change hurts public support for the Conservative government's kleptocratic oil fantasies. He also pulled Canada out of the Kyoto Protocol, the first nation to withdraw from the greenhouse emission reduction effort to great international embarrassment.
[URL="http://facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1413117"]He's also been quietly erasing feminist icons from natiional recognition and replacing them with his own dumb fucking face.[/URL] Traditionally, the sitting government refers to itself as The Canadian Government -- because that's what it is. King Stevie has insisted that as much public branding and PR as possible describe it as "the Harper government". As far as I'm aware, this narcissistic bullshit is unprecedented in post-confederation Canadian history.
So, no, Harper's an oil man who depended on oil votes to get in, and now he gets to sleep in the bed he made.
I hope he loses his seat. Calgary Southwest, the fate of the nation depends on you.
And yet it was Chretien who started us down this oil path when he began selling off the government's interests in oil and its industries and, after committing to Kyoto, increased our carbon emissions to levels that made it impossible to meet our Kyoto commitments.
[QUOTE=DaCommie1;48163896]And yet it was Chretien who started us down this oil path when he began selling off the government's interests in oil and its industries and, after committing to Kyoto, increased our carbon emissions to levels that made it impossible to meet our Kyoto commitments.[/QUOTE]
I've got a wheelbarrow of shit to throw at Chretien but at this point he's a tired old man, while Harper is our sitting Prime Minister. One of the two has been more capable of doing something in the last decade.
I suppose I can agree with that. It's like how the McWynnety Liberals in Ontario keep blaming everything on Mike Harris when they've been in power for 15 years.
[QUOTE=DaCommie1;48163918]I suppose I can agree with that. It's like how the McWynnety Liberals in Ontario keep blaming everything on Mike Harris when they've been in power for 15 years.[/QUOTE]
It's one thing to fuck up a political and economic situation, it's an entirely different thing to have the power to fix it and spectacularly fail, as the Cons have done and are doing. In Ontario Mike Harris tore shit down, the NDP under Rae stood haplessly in the pile, and the Liberals have been doing jack shit ever since. But they weren't exactly helped along by the Federal government, for whom the blame lies for the collapse of the manufacturing sector in the province. Where Harper is concerned, he's not only failed to fix pre-existing problems with our economy and society, but actively and knowingly made them worse.
Rae came before Harris. Harris tore everything down because Rae fucked it up.
Also the Liberals have had the ability to "fix" any "problems" they claim Harris caused, and yet instead they've spent the last 15 years fucking the province up even worse. So they didn't just spectacularly fail to fix old problems, they left those old problems there and piled a mountain of new ones on top of it.
Sorry Canada, but honestly oil production based economies are a tad bit unstable, massive growth when there's high oil prices but massive contraction when oil prices crash. Guess political croniesm isn't exclusive to the US though
[QUOTE=DaCommie1;48164361]Rae came before Harris. Harris tore everything down because Rae fucked it up.
Also the Liberals have had the ability to "fix" any "problems" they claim Harris caused, and yet instead they've spent the last 15 years fucking the province up even worse. So they didn't just spectacularly fail to fix old problems, they left those old problems there and piled a mountain of new ones on top of it.[/QUOTE]
I was wrong, sorry. Still, my point still stands that we've had three successively shit governments who've been woefully inept at solving the problems of previous ones, and a federal government that has done little if nothing to actually help.
As an actor living in Victoria, this is kinda great.
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;48163879]
I hope he loses his seat. Calgary Southwest, the fate of the nation depends on you.[/QUOTE]
I'm starting to lose hope that we're going to elect the NDP in any ridings in Alberta with how angry people seem to already be with our provincial government even though they've barely done anything yet. I'm really hoping the anger is just a vocal minority and I'll be proven wrong, but I don't have much hope.
[QUOTE=SIRIUS;48164948]As an actor living in Victoria, this is kinda great.[/QUOTE]
movie or play( live show ) .?
TBH Harper was no longer needed once we dodged the 2008 stock market crash.
Was he really even needed then?
[QUOTE=theevilldeadII;48165927]movie or play( live show ) .?[/QUOTE]
Lower dollar means more films shot here
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