• Venezuela on the brink before the parliamentary elections on sunday.
    28 replies, posted
[img]http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2015/11/30/103204102-RTX1V6RL.530x298.jpg?v=1448914528[/img] [i]Students take part in a rally against President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas on Nov. 21, 2015.[/i] [quote]Venezuela looks more and more like a powder keg as its parliamentary elections draw near. Demonstrations have wracked the country this year in even greater numbers than normal. A government prosecutor fled the country in October and claimed that the state pressured him to falsify evidenceagainst the top opposition leader. And just last week, Luis Manuel Diaz, secretary of the opposition Democratic Action Party, was gunned down at an event in central Venezuela. Democratic Action Party leaders pinned blame on President Nicolas Maduro's United Socialist Party. The ruling party, in turn, has denied any involvement in the killing and blames gang elements.[/quote] [url]http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/30/venezuela-on-edge-ahead-of-parliamentary-elections.html[/url] [quote]Venezuela is scheduled to hold elections on Sunday, and it may be one of the most competitive elections the country has seen recently, Thompson said. "Opinion polls over the last year really, have shown the party trailing the opposition," he said. The opposition has "been leading in some places by as much as 30 points, so it's pretty clear at this point that the opposition stands a chance of winning quite a few seats."[/quote] My fear is that neither side is going to accept the results, regardless of what the outcome is. The deterioration of civil society and the economy, not to mention that Venezuela has run out of cash reserves and is heavily indebted, plus Maduros corruption and mismanagement is going to make it almost impossible to get out of this crisis. There'll most likely be a lot of violence and a lot of people will be caught in the crossfire.
Maduro seems like the kind of person who won't give up his power without violence. This could get real ugly, real fast.
[QUOTE=Disgruntled;49237360]Maduro seems like the kind of person who won't give up his power without violence. This could get real ugly, real fast.[/QUOTE] I'm sure they will send in the army to prevent the situation from escalating and by doing this, they will escalate it.
The country's GDP is nearly 80% oil and that's either given out for free to Cuba and their neighbors or traded for necessary resources that Venezuela lacks. The government kept investing more into their dwindling oil sector and were stupid enough to set themselves and their people up for collapse [editline]3rd December 2015[/editline] I'm surprised Maduro hasn't been assassinated
[QUOTE=ghghop;49237529]The country's GDP is nearly 80% oil and that's either given out for free to Cuba and their neighbors or traded for necessary resources that Venezuela lacks. The government kept investing more into their dwindling oil sector and were stupid enough to set themselves and their people up for collapse [editline]3rd December 2015[/editline] I'm surprised Maduro hasn't been assassinated[/QUOTE] The government didn't even really invest into the oil sector either, funds set aside for it often mysteriously vanished, and oil production there has been in decline (despite having massive untapped reserves). I think even with an oil price of $40 Venezuela should have been still making a tidy profit from the export of oil (the reason its in dire straits is due to extreme mismanagement). And now Venezuela has a poverty rate higher than when Chavez took office in 1999. Virtually all of the few gains made under his administration have vanished in the past few years.
expecting it to get violent one way or another, im going to vote and then lock myself here and prepare for the worst
Will there be any sort of international intervention in the case the Venezuelan apocalypse starts?
[QUOTE=A B.A. Survivor;49237911]Will there be any sort of international intervention in the case the Venezuelan apocalypse starts?[/QUOTE] I think its very unlikely it will get that bad, but it will still be messy and potentially bloody especially if the military gets involved or Maduro's thugs start killing people.
[QUOTE=A B.A. Survivor;49237911]Will there be any sort of international intervention in the case the Venezuelan apocalypse starts?[/QUOTE] God, I hope it won't come to that. But given how Maduro blames Colombia and the US for everything, it wouldn't surprise me if things go down to shit real fast for the neighbours.
[QUOTE=Disgruntled;49237360]Maduro seems like the kind of person who won't give up his power without violence. This could get real ugly, real fast.[/QUOTE] so, because I'm sure the people who opened this thread are interested in the subject, I'm gonna offer a little explanation on what could happen this Sunday, and what are the consequences of each scenario. First of all, this Sunday, every Venezuelan is going to vote for 167 deputies, from 87 circuits, 60% of these circuits elect just one deputy, with the remaining, more populated ones elect either 2 or 3 in a mixed-member proportional representation format, that means, people vote both for a particular deputy and its party. Gerrymandering is a thing with this system, however, as circuits are established rather arbitrarily, and states (of which we have 23, which is a shitload considering we have less population and landmass than Florida) must necessarily have at least one deputy. Polls currently show that the government's approval rate is at an all time low, polls show that in many circuits that have historically voted for Chavez, on average, 70% of people polled think negatively of Maduro's administration, showing a clear trend of disenchantment within the Chavista voter base, which can easily be explained by the economic crisis that has affected Venezuela for the entire duration of Maduro's regime and how it's only got worse with every measure he has implemented. Current oil barrel prices are at $34, which is less than half of what it was at when Maduro took power, which has crippled the regime's usual technique of gaining votes right before the election through gifts for the general populace. A couple of scandals, including Maduro's relatives getting indicted in the US on drug charges, as well as the changing political landscape of Latin America have almost cemented this, there is just no time for the state. The reason why everyone seems so interested in this particular election, is because it is the last important election for the next couple of years, and this is therefore the very last moment the opposition has to wrestle power from Maduro's hands. If the opposition loses this, they lose the opportunity to call for Maduro's impeachment, and with the next presidential election being still 3 years away, this is a dire scenario for Venezuela. But the numbers seem solid, every single poll, even from agencies that have previously never given a single result other than clear wins for the Chavistas, have shown that the opposition is on it's way for a landslide victory, with PSUV, the government's party, only attaining 35% of the votes. For the very first time, many important figures in international politics are defending the opposition. And the government seems very well aware of this. Their campaign seems desperate, Maduro calls for winning "at all costs", a party called 'Min-Unidad', which is aligned with the government, is copying visual elements from the main opposition party (Mesa de la Unidad Democratica or MUD) in order to generate confusion among voters, and the government has started running ads that say the MUD will take away all the free stuff the government has given to people, on national television. They're scared, but have not been willing to compromise and negotiate with the opposition, which is worrying. So, there's 3 scenarios: 1) [B]The opposition gets 2/3rds of the deputies:[/B] This implies the near-instant demise of the Maduro administration. The opposition would be able to pass and revise laws, call for referendums to modify the constitution, without the government being able to intervene. Maduro currently has an enabling act granting him special powers, but this act expires on New Year's Eve, meaning that the opposition would be in the National Assembly in time to prevent another enabling act. They can also call for Maduro's impeachment by March 2016, when the second half of Maduro's presidential term is to begin. This is a very positive outcome for Venezuela as it would be the beginning of a new chapter in Venezuela's political history, however, militias and paramilitary groups aligned with Chavez may attempt to destabilize the country if such a result were to come this Sunday. [U]Likelyhood: low-medium[/U], this is a kind of very optimistic outcome the government is very unlikely to agree to. Since the state party controls every single power and institution, they are more than able to modify the results to prevent such a thing from happening. Unless, they are ready to step down. 2) [B]The opposition wins a majority lower than 2/3rds, or PSUV becomes a minority party:[/B] This is a very unsatisfactory result for both parties. The opposition would lack the power to do many things, but would have enough to directly oppose the government as it has intended to do for the past 17 years, and the government would most likely force a political deadlock, all while attempting to bypass the National Assembly in order to continue its autocratic, populist rule. Destabilization is not likely to occur right now with this result. [U]Likelihood: medium-high[/U], the polls show that people don't like Maduro more than they hate the opposition, and they most certainly love Chavez, but about a third of the population isn't really sure who to vote for. The opposition is likely to get a majority, PSUV is likely to not get many deputies, however, I think the remaining deputies will go to non-aligned parties that are against both the opposition and government. These parties are likely to agree with Maduro's impeachment, but unlikely to agree to necessary economic reforms the opposition wants. 3) [B]The government gets the majority:[/B] The polls were wrong somehow, and the government sweeps the election, retaining the spots in the National Assembly it already has. Destabilization is very likely to happen, as the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans are very unsatisfied with the current Assembly and the government, so we would likely see a repeat of the situation in 2014, only magnified as it would no longer involve just the major cities in Venezuela. It's very hard to predict what would happen after that, but it would most certainly not be good. [U]Likelihood: low[/U], this is a rather unlikely scenario that mostly means bad things for Venezuela, and it is really only possible through rigging the election. The government just lacks the popularity to get a majority in the Assembly again, the current one was elected under Chavez, and even then it could only get 96 deputies despite Chavez having 60% approval rate.
[QUOTE=Big Bang;49249533]-snip-[/QUOTE] Thanks for taking the time to type this out, solid post.
From what I can tell from the full picture is no matter what there will be a wave of violence... it will be the PSUV that will cause the most of it... actually there is another scenario... the PSUV will try to get a state of emergency (legally or illegally), then it will make him do a (legal or Illegal) emergency re-election, with the opposing party banned from the re-election. It sounds stupid or exaggerated, but I actually can see that happening...
[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;49249703]From what I can tell from the full picture is no matter what there will be a wave of violence... it will be the PSUV that will cause the most of it... actually there is another scenario... the PSUV will try to get a state of emergency (legally or illegally), then it will make him do a (legal or Illegal) emergency re-election, with the opposing party banned from the re-election. It sounds stupid or exaggerated, but I actually can see that happening...[/QUOTE] That's not gonna happen, sorry. It has no basis in law, you can't force another election, and you also cannot prevent a political party from joining said election, if you were to do that, you might as well just remove the National Assmelby altogether, and the government knows that such a stupid course of action will only get them coup'd or worse. They won't do that. Violence sadly tends to always occur in Venezuelan elections, it is a violent country after all, but I don't expect it to get out of control except on the third scenario I listed.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49237836]The government didn't even really invest into the oil sector either, funds set aside for it often mysteriously vanished, and oil production there has been in decline (despite having massive untapped reserves). I think even with an oil price of $40 Venezuela should have been still making a tidy profit from the export of oil (the reason its in dire straits is due to extreme mismanagement). And now Venezuela has a poverty rate higher than when Chavez took office in 1999. Virtually all of the few gains made under his administration have vanished in the past few years.[/QUOTE] Ya since Chavez nationalised their oil companies, they have not had much outside investment in their oil fields, which meant that they would have to continue investing but they never did so their production costs are outrageously high, their oil company is horribly mismanaged, and they have doubled down on what little revanue they recieve
Fuck sakes the day hasn't even started and there's already people dead, can't find sources in English, sorry. [url]http://www.eluniversal.com/sucesos/151205/balacera-en-centro-de-votacion-deja-un-militar-y-un-delincuente-muerto[/url]
[QUOTE=Big Bang;49255935]Fuck sakes the day hasn't even started and there's already people dead, can't find sources in English, sorry. [url]http://www.eluniversal.com/sucesos/151205/balacera-en-centro-de-votacion-deja-un-militar-y-un-delincuente-muerto[/url][/QUOTE] Cripes, I hope you stay safe man. Hoping that things don't get too shit down there tomorrow.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49256171]Cripes, I hope you stay safe man. Hoping that things don't get too shit down there tomorrow.[/QUOTE] they're desperate, but they won't intimidate us. they know they're going to lose.
But the question is, if the opposition wins, will Maduro accept it, or they will manipulate the votes so his party magically wins, and blaming the rest of politics as "corrupt politicians backed by imperalists"?
I wish there was some way I could help with this
I just voted, there's reports of an alarming about of null votes due to people not knowing how to work the system. IDK why that is to be honest, since you just have to press two buttons, but if it reaches more than a million that's sufficient grounds for the election to be redone.
[QUOTE=Big Bang;49258602]I just voted, there's reports of an alarming about of null votes due to people not knowing how to work the system. IDK why that is to be honest, since you just have to press two buttons, but if it reaches more than a million that's sufficient grounds for the election to be redone.[/QUOTE] Big Bang... sorry to be paranoid... but that may be a sign of election rigging.
[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;49258712]Big Bang... sorry to be paranoid... but that may be a sign of election rigging.[/QUOTE] No, it's a sign that there wasn't sufficient training for people. They don't know that you must wait for the machine to display your choices on the screen before you press the vote button. Again, I just voted, I followed instructions and my vote came out fine.
God why I'm so paranoid... If the government did follow through with that shit... a coup would happen...
I think we won, actually. I don't have any official news yet. the voting centers have closed by now and the votes should be getting transmitted.
[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;49258809]God why I'm so paranoid... If the government did follow through with that shit... a coup would happen...[/QUOTE] IIRC the military has been paid off to be on side
Holy fuck I think we actually won, and by a lot, 2/3rds majority on the National Assembly. they're taking a REAL long time to announce the results.
The opposition won! government=46 opposition=99
Ohhh so thats why everybody at my apartment went crazy and woke me up :v:
This will only mean good things for the future, I hope
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