Pols see polls point to Romney triumph; ‘hidden vote’ to crush Obama
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Pols see polls point to Romney triumph; ‘hidden vote’ to crush Obama
Washington times Wednesday, October 31, 2012
[quote]The tidal wave of anti-debt, anti-big-government voters that swamped Democrats in the 2010 congressional elections is readying itself again, poised to sweep Mitt Romney into the Oval Office, some political observers say.
“It’s very, very likely,” veteran Republican campaign pollster John McLaughlin said, predicting a Romney tsunami Tuesday.
“Romney has surged in all the target states,” Mr. McLaughlin said. “The undecided vote is not really undecided. They overwhelmingly disapprove of the job the president has done and will largely vote against the incumbent. It’s a hidden vote that will vote against the president.”
His prediction flies in the face of most polling, which shows a tight national race between Mr. Romney and President Obama, and state polls that show Mr. Obama leading in most battlegrounds. The only poll that shows Mr. Romney clearly winning is the respected Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters, which gives the Republican nominee a 5 percentage-point advantage.
Gallup also correctly predicted the 2010 wave that powered the GOP to capture more than five dozen seats in the House — based in large part on a swell of intensity for Republicans.
Just ahead of Election Day that year, Gallup predicted: “The 2010 elections could be historic from the standpoint of producing unusually large Republican gains in Congress. But the elections are already historic for a midterm election in the levels of enthusiasm Americans, and particularly, Republicans, have for voting this year.”
Mr. McLaughlin, the GOP pollster, said he sees that same enthusiasm for Republicans boiling beneath pollsters’ sights this year — and so do some leaders of the tea party, which harnessed voters’ resentment against spending and government expansion.
“Not only is the coming wave taking place at the federal level, but the untold story is taking place at the state and local level, which will have massive political implications for decades to come,” said National Tea Party Patriots co-founder and former national coordinator Mark Meckler, who is predicting a Romney win by 6 percentage points. “That wave is already in motion and cannot be reversed.”
Toby Marie Walker, a tea party coordinator in Waco, Texas, said she sees the same momentum, which she said will deliver more Senate seats to the GOP than pollsters suggest, and will give Mr. Romney 54 percent of the national vote.
“I’m doing lot of phone calls talking to independents in other states,” said Ms. Walker. “I’ve seen a shift in the past 30 days, going from an even split to 60 [percent] to 70 percent saying they have no confidence in Obama. That’s not what I’m hearing from pollsters and pundits but from real people.”
Not all anti-debt rebels are drinking that tea, though.
Alaska tea partyer David Eastman waved off the prospects of a Romney tsunami, saying small-government voters don’t have much enthusiasm for Mr. Romney.
“For my own part, anti-big-government voters do not seem overly enthused by a Romney campaign that is anti-big government only insofar as it is contrasted with the excesses of the present administration,” he said.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres said he sees little evidence of a congressional wave this time because his polling shows an even split between Democrats and Republicans on the generic ballot, which asks voters whether they will be backing a Republican or a Democrat for Congress this year.
“Nevertheless, in the presidential race, independents who had voted by an 8-point margin for Obama are now voting against Obama by double digits,” Mr. Ayres said. “We saw this trend coming literally 18 months ahead of the 2012 election.”
Nate Silver, who wrote the FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times, said the election is moving in Mr. Obama’s direction. He said there is a 77 percent chance Mr. Obama wins, and his current forecast gives Mr. Obama nearly 300 electoral votes, up 10 from a week ago.
Mr. Silver’s data-driven approach to election predictions has won rave reviews from politicos. He said if Gallup is right and Mr. Romney’s lead is that big, then the Republican is a “virtual lock” to win Tuesday. But if the state polls, which generally give Mr. Obama leads in the key states, are correct, then the president will survive.
In his Wednesday post, Mr. Silver said: “Just about every method for evaluating the election based on state polls seems to hint at a very slight lead in the popular vote, as well as an Electoral College victory, for President Obama.”
Mr. McLaughlin, however, said the backlash against Mr. Obama from Hurricane Sandy is overriding all that.
“Those without power who are cutting down trees in the Northeast and are very upset post-hurricane — if they lack power through Election Day, they will not be kind to the incumbent president or his party,” he said.[/quote]
Source:[url]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/31/analysts-say-polls-point-to-romney-triumph[/url]
[quote]Alaska tea partyer David Eastman waved off the prospects of a[B] Romney tsunami[/B][/quote]
The mental image is downright hilarious.
[quote]“It’s very, very likely,” veteran Republican campaign pollster John McLaughlin said, predicting a Romney tsunami Tuesday.[/quote]
Bias in article. Cannot be taken seriously
Article summarised
[quote]The tidal wave of anti-debt, anti-big-government voters that swamped Democrats in the 2010 congressional elections is readying itself again, poised to sweep Mitt Romney into the Oval Office, some political observers say.
“It’s very, very likely,” veteran Republican campaign pollster John McLaughlin said, predicting a Romney tsunami Tuesday.
“Romney has surged in all the target states,” Mr. McLaughlin said. “The undecided vote is not really undecided. They overwhelmingly disapprove of the job the president has done and will largely vote against the incumbent. It’s a hidden vote that will vote against the president.”[/quote]
GOP supporters predict GOP victory
[quote]His prediction flies in the face of most polling, which shows a tight national race between Mr. Romney and President Obama, and state polls that show Mr. Obama leading in most battlegrounds. The only poll that shows Mr. Romney clearly winning is the respected Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters, which gives the Republican nominee a 5 percentage-point advantage.
Gallup also correctly predicted the 2010 wave that powered the GOP to capture more than five dozen seats in the House — based in large part on a swell of intensity for Republicans.
Just ahead of Election Day that year, Gallup predicted: “The 2010 elections could be historic from the standpoint of producing unusually large Republican gains in Congress. But the elections are already historic for a midterm election in the levels of enthusiasm Americans, and particularly, Republicans, have for voting this year.”
Mr. McLaughlin, the GOP pollster, said he sees that same enthusiasm for Republicans boiling beneath pollsters’ sights this year — and so do some leaders of the tea party, which harnessed voters’ resentment against spending and government expansion.
“Not only is the coming wave taking place at the federal level, but the untold story is taking place at the state and local level, which will have massive political implications for decades to come,” said National Tea Party Patriots co-founder and former national coordinator Mark Meckler, who is predicting a Romney win by 6 percentage points. “That wave is already in motion and cannot be reversed.”
Toby Marie Walker, a tea party coordinator in Waco, Texas, said she sees the same momentum, which she said will deliver more Senate seats to the GOP than pollsters suggest, and will give Mr. Romney 54 percent of the national vote.
“I’m doing lot of phone calls talking to independents in other states,” said Ms. Walker. “I’ve seen a shift in the past 30 days, going from an even split to 60 [percent] to 70 percent saying they have no confidence in Obama. That’s not what I’m hearing from pollsters and pundits but from real people.”[/quote]
Gallup is the only poll which suggests they are correct, but Gallup was right in 2010! Tea Partyers say this proves Romney will win
[quote]Not all anti-debt rebels are drinking that tea, though.
Alaska tea partyer David Eastman waved off the prospects of a Romney tsunami, saying small-government voters don’t have much enthusiasm for Mr. Romney.
“For my own part, anti-big-government voters do not seem overly enthused by a Romney campaign that is anti-big government only insofar as it is contrasted with the excesses of the present administration,” he said.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres said he sees little evidence of a congressional wave this time because his polling shows an even split between Democrats and Republicans on the generic ballot, which asks voters whether they will be backing a Republican or a Democrat for Congress this year.
“Nevertheless, in the presidential race, independents who had voted by an 8-point margin for Obama are now voting against Obama by double digits,” Mr. Ayres said. “We saw this trend coming literally 18 months ahead of the 2012 election.”[/quote]
However, even some Tea Partyers and Republicans say this is bullshit
[quote]Nate Silver, who wrote the FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times, said the election is moving in Mr. Obama’s direction. He said there is a 77 percent chance Mr. Obama wins, and his current forecast gives Mr. Obama nearly 300 electoral votes, up 10 from a week ago.
Mr. Silver’s data-driven approach to election predictions has won rave reviews from politicos. He said if Gallup is right and Mr. Romney’s lead is that big, then the Republican is a “virtual lock” to win Tuesday. But if the state polls, which generally give Mr. Obama leads in the key states, are correct, then the president will survive.
In his Wednesday post, Mr. Silver said: “Just about every method for evaluating the election based on state polls seems to hint at a very slight lead in the popular vote, as well as an Electoral College victory, for President Obama.”
Mr. McLaughlin, however, said the backlash against Mr. Obama from Hurricane Sandy is overriding all that.
“Those without power who are cutting down trees in the Northeast and are very upset post-hurricane — if they lack power through Election Day, they will not be kind to the incumbent president or his party,” he said.[/quote]
Nate Silver says Obama will win. But a GOP supporter said Obama will suffer because of the backlash over Hurricane Sandy, despite just [url=http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/storm-response-earns-obama-praise-amid-the-elections-deadlock-drama/]8% of Americans[/url] disapproving of his response.
I really hope not. Romney makes me nervous. Nervous because I don't know what he's going to do once he's in office. He doesn't reveal a lot of things and he flips back and forth between a ton of policies. We know what Obama's plans are for his presidency. Also Romney's stare makes me uncomfortable.
I just can't trust someone like Romney, I don't know, something about him just seems off and makes me worried thinking what might happen if he becomes President.
Reminds me of Nixon's concept of the "silent majority" except being applied gratuitously.
Glaber, you forgot to post 3 sources this time, I am disappointed in you
Washington times Glaber?
Just come join us and post the Washington Post!
[QUOTE=areolop;38276884]Bias in article. Cannot be taken seriously[/QUOTE]
If it was bias the other way, I doubt it would raise any concern here...
[QUOTE=smurfy;38276896]Article summarised
GOP supporters predict GOP victory
Gallup is the only poll which suggests they are correct, but Gallup was right in 2010! Tea Partyers say this proves Romney will win
However, even some Tea Partyers and Republicans say this is bullshit
Nate Silver says Obama will win. But a GOP supporter said Obama will suffer because of the backlash over Hurricane Sandy, despite just [url=http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/storm-response-earns-obama-praise-amid-the-elections-deadlock-drama/]8% of Americans[/url] disapproving of his response.[/QUOTE]
Start your own news site.
[QUOTE=Wealth + Taste;38277466]If it was bias the other way, I doubt it would raise any concern here...[/QUOTE]
Except that it would. And has every other time a really biased liberal article was posted on facepunch.
[QUOTE=Wealth + Taste;38277466]If it was bias the other way, I doubt it would raise any concern here...[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Raidyr;38276167]New SH drinking game.
Every time someone says "But if it was [B]Obama[/B], Facepunch would" take a drink.[/QUOTE]
Romney's $5,000 hurricane donation effort thread
[QUOTE=Sottalytober;38269554]where's the proof?
i could write the exact same article about pres. obama and every would just be slurpin' that shit up - i know facepunch is biased but c'mon...word of mouth ain't proof[/QUOTE]
paul ryan's dishwashing thing
[QUOTE=Clio;38058923]tbh if it was obama on the pic you'd all be praising him :v:[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=daijitsu;38277634][/QUOTE]
also "If it wasn't apple, facepunch would"
[QUOTE=daijitsu;38277634][/QUOTE]
shit I knew I shouldn't have bought that absinthe yesterday
Karl Rove also said Romney would win.
Course the Republicans would say their party would win. It's natural.
[editline]1st November 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=Melkor;38277561]Except that it would. And has every other time a really biased liberal article was posted on facepunch.[/QUOTE]
Every fucking thread.
Every fucking thread there's always a post saying, "WELL IF IT WAS THE OTHER WAY!"
I have a feeling our economy is going to get better over the next four years, regardless of who's in office. We're just recovering from a recession, it's going to happen naturally. But if Romney gets elected, Republicans will say that's the only reason anything is getting better, when I'm sure it would have been just as good, if not better, had Obama retained the Presidency. I'm just afraid Romney will come in at the right time to make himself look good, when Obama came in at the wrong time, to make him look bad, what with the recession (caused in part by Bush) starting just as he took office.
Of course, that's if Romney even wins. I don't trust the article at all but regardless of the credibility of this one article it [i]is[/i] a tight race by any standards.
[QUOTE=Wealth + Taste;38277466]If it was bias the other way, I doubt it would raise any concern here...[/QUOTE]
hmm yes [IMG]http://i473.photobucket.com/albums/rr97/tyke_bike_mike/gifs/balekermitnod.gif[/IMG] excellent point
[editline]1st November 2012[/editline]
on a scale from stoked to megastoked how stoked is everybody about romney's concession speech with the guy just grimacing his way through the entire thing and people wailing in the audience
Almost had to complain about the bias, then I saw it was Glaber who posted the thread. Then it all makes sense.
If I wasn't busy atm, I'd go through the political threads for the past few months and make a tally for every time that phrase was said.
[editline]1st November 2012[/editline]
In a similar related move, Fox Nation is claiming that the economy was great under President Bush, I'd post that article, but I don't feel like posting an obvious opinion piece.
I hope so. Sorry but the extreme bias on FP just makes me hope Romney wins just to see the tears, even if I'd vote for Obama if I was in the US.
[QUOTE=acds;38277898]I hope so. Sorry but the extreme bias on FP just makes me hope Romney wins just to see the tears, even if I'd vote for Obama if I was in the US.[/QUOTE]
Hey broheim, 'believing in things' is not the same thing as 'bias'.
Polling averages done with tested methodologies like 538 are calling an Obama win. Believing that Obama will win isn't 'bias'.
[QUOTE=Nikota;38277831]If I wasn't busy atm, I'd go through the political threads for the past few months and make a tally for every time that phrase was said.
[editline]1st November 2012[/editline]
In a similar related move, Fox Nation is claiming that the economy was great under President Bush, I'd post that article, but I don't feel like posting an obvious opinion piece.[/QUOTE]
Didn't he downright tank the blooming economy caused by Clinton?
[QUOTE=acds;38277898]I hope so. Sorry but the extreme bias on FP just makes me hope Romney wins just to see the tears, even if I'd vote for Obama if I was in the US.[/QUOTE]
I'll go with you here and say that there's a bias against Romney. Most of us here don't like him and for honest reasons. The guy's a liar and a cheat who only got picked because everyone else was nuttier than he was. He constantly changes positions on a daily basis and that just isn't a quality a leader should have. We have no idea what any of his actual plans are, and most of what he's said so far in terms of actual policy as of the third debate, is an echo of what Obama has been saying, but while denouncing Obama. He shouts five point plan, while saying, "Wait till after the election" whenever it's asked for details.
His running mate and other republicans were constantly shouting for the Ryan budget for two years, and now he want's to be disconnected from it as if it never happened. Both of them lack any form of integrity and I actually have fun laughing at how Mitt Romney goes against most of the ideas that his father advocated for.
[editline]1st November 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=Van-man;38277961]Didn't he downright tank the blooming economy caused by Clinton?[/QUOTE]
Yep.
[QUOTE=acds;38277898]I hope so. Sorry but the extreme bias on FP just makes me hope Romney wins just to see the tears, even if I'd vote for Obama if I was in the US.[/QUOTE]
That's not funny.
[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Times#Political_leanings[/url]
[quote]The political views of The Washington Times are often described as conservative. The Washington Post reported: "the Times was established by Moon to combat communism and be a conservative alternative to what he perceived as the liberal bias of The Washington Post."[/quote]
:suicide:
538 is predicting a solid win for Obama, and I trust them way more than I trust a GOP pollster.
[QUOTE=Van-man;38277961]Didn't he downright tank the blooming economy caused by Clinton?[/QUOTE]
Yes. The economy was very good under Bush for a while but that was pretty much all Clinton's doing. It takes years for legislation to really start taking an effect on the economy, which is why everything tanked in Bush's last year as president and why we're just starting to really recover four years later. The Economy would continue to improve in the short term even if Romney were to win (and his ghostly, shapeshifting tax non-plan, whatever that turns out to be, would probably get the credit because nobody seems to realize this).
Have any of you ever stopped by 270 to win?
[url]http://www.270towin.com/[/url]
I think its really cool to find some statistics about the probability of winning
[QUOTE=acds;38277898]I hope so. Sorry but the extreme bias on FP just makes me hope Romney wins just to see the tears, even if I'd vote for Obama if I was in the US.[/QUOTE]
If Romney wins, FP will be full of headlines insisting Romney didn't win legally, that broad GOP conspiracy discarded votes, that Romney-Koch-Limbaugh-Bain-HIG voting machine company "owned" by "people" who "trace" back to "Romney" fucked with electronic voting machines, etc.
Just like the people who insist Obama isn't President because he wasn't born in America. :v:
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