• Trump’s first housing move tanks mortgage applications 3.2%
    10 replies, posted
[quote] A plunge in applications for government-insured loans was behind a drop in overall mortgage volume last week. Total mortgage applications fell 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Volume was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Most notable was a 13 percent drop in FHA applications — a direct result of the Trump administration reversing a cut in the FHA's annual mortgage insurance premium just hours after the inauguration. That cut was the last major policy act of the Obama administration and would have decreased monthly payments for thousands of new, lower-income borrowers. FHA applications increased immediately after the cut was announced, and lenders have reported that many of those have also been withdrawn. The Trump administration's nominee for secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Ben Carson, said he wanted to examine the cut further, along with the fiscal health of the FHA's insurance fund, and make sure a cut in premiums wouldn't increase taxpayer risk. "Following the decision to suspend a proposed decrease in the FHA mortgage insurance premium, FHA refinance applications dropped more than 25 percent, while FHA purchase applications fell almost 6 percent," said Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA. [/Quote] [URL="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/trumps-first-housing-move-tanks-mortgage-applications.html"]CNBC[/URL] Make America Uncertain Again
Don't worry, only Hillary-voting mortgage adjusters will be laid off as a result of the market slowdown. :downs: The amount of buyer's remorse generated in the immediate wake of Trump's inauguration is amazing. I just wish I could trust that America will have learned a lesson from this.
I'm in the midst of looking for a house. Honestly, interest rates are among the lowest in years, but Donald is quickly making that go up in smoke.
[QUOTE=Alxnotorious;51761190]I'm in the midst of looking for a house. Honestly, interest rates are among the lowest in years, but Donald is quickly making that go up in smoke.[/QUOTE] Interest rates are historically still pretty low, but they are on the rise. Last time I checked the numbers, at least, averages had shot up by about 0.7%, which is quite a bit more substantial than it may sound for the uninitiated. That effectively results in a 7%~ decrease in buying power. Of course, that was last month. It may have climbed a bit higher, leveled off, or even slightly lowered since then. Either way, Trump's order ain't especially great news for current low income buyers. FHA loans are typically the go-to option for first time and low income homebuyers, because of the low down payment requirements, lack of prepayment penalty, etc.
So BDA, how does this affect house prices?
I'm buying a home in spring/summer this year. How fucked am I?
[QUOTE=Gamerman12;51761344]I'm buying a home in spring/summer this year. How fucked am I?[/QUOTE] Well it'll be a worse time than now, but it's probably just going to get worse so I wouldn't really worry about it. Kind of a thing you can't really avoid, just gotta live with it
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;51761100]Don't worry, only Hillary-voting mortgage adjusters will be laid off as a result of the market slowdown. :downs: The amount of buyer's remorse generated in the immediate wake of Trump's inauguration is amazing. I just wish I could trust that America will have learned a lesson from this.[/QUOTE] [IMG]https://i.redd.it/xa1ligg3w3dy.jpg[/IMG]
[QUOTE=FalcoLombardi;51761331]So BDA, how does this affect house prices?[/QUOTE] It's another big step towards a major reversal. This alone is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on prices (or at least I wouldn't think so), but combined with everything else going on in the national real estate market, it's becoming increasingly clear that things are about to change for the worse for sellers. If I had to guess, I'd say that we will officially transition into a housing downturn in Q4 of this year, maybe Q1 of next year. We'll see ~4-6 years of more or less consistently declining property values before we start our climb again, if previous trends hold true. Of course, I don't have a crystal ball. There could always be some event or policy that triggers a much more rapid decline, or which could sustain our current momentum past my projected estimates. [editline]1st February 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Gamerman12;51761344]I'm buying a home in spring/summer this year. How fucked am I?[/QUOTE] Well, generally speaking, you're buying at just about the worst possible time. Property values are still within the range of all time highs, and inventory is very, very low. Average time on market where I work is only 13 days, which is bonkers. Tons of competition among buyers! That said, interest rates are still pretty darn low, which works in your favor. Interest rate is arguably more important than property value, as it has a big impact on your monthly mortgage payments. Every 1% change in interest rate is roughly the same as a 10% change in buying power on your monthly mortgage payments. As for resale value, as long as you plan to live in your next home for 5-10 years, you'll probably be able to ride out the decline before you're ready to sell, and at least break even, if not make a tidy profit. Shorter term, you'd almost certainly take a big loss. Disclaimer: it's important to keep in mind that real estate markets are incredibly local. Your specific market may not necessarily behave in line with the national trends. Consult a local professional. PS: Let me refer you to one of your local agents so I can make money. :pudge:
[QUOTE=1239the;51761727][IMG]https://i.redd.it/xa1ligg3w3dy.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE] As my dad validly pointed out, this doesn't give you enough info. Logically, the people seaching "regret voting for" would most likely be typing "regret voting for trump", but the graph only shows "regret voting for", so it could mean that those search terms are coming from people typing "regret voting for Hillary in the primaries" You should also show this part of the page [t]https://i.imgur.com/gqYbSeY.png[/t] :v: [sp]the regret voting for Obama was probably from 2008[/sp]
:tinfoil: I wonder if Trump is crashing the housing market so more people will have to stay at his hotels
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