• Afghanistan's government 'could collapse' after 2014 - report
    22 replies, posted
[QUOTE]A new report on Afghanistan warns that the departure of Nato forces in 2014 could be followed by the government's collapse and even civil war, unless steps are taken now. The International Crisis Group (ICG) says the Afghan police and army are unprepared for security responsibility. It added that polls in two years' time would be "plagued" by fraud unless the state acted to ensure a clean vote. The Afghan government labelled the predictions "nonsense and garbage". "Our nation was not born in 2002. We have a history of 5,000 years. We have fought against superpowers in the past. Our national police and army are ready to defend the country's soul and sovereignty," a statement said. The government spokesman added that if the international community fulfilled its pledges of future support, Nato's withdrawal in 2014 would not make any difference. But the report from the Brussels-based group is stark in its prediction that the Western-backed government in Afghanistan could be on course for what it calls a devastating political crisis after 2014. It states that "steps to ensure a stable transition must begin now to prevent a precipitous slide toward state collapse. Time is running out." That same year elections are due in Afghanistan and the report predicts that the forthcoming polls will be as fraudulent as the last ones. "It is a near certainty that under current conditions the 2014 elections will be plagued by massive fraud. Vote-rigging in the south and east, where security continues to deteriorate, is all but guaranteed," the report warns. The report also says that Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai - who is not allowed to run again - may be trying to "stack the deck" for a favoured candidate. The government statement asserted that forthcoming polls would be "free and fair and without any foreign interference." But the ICG report concludes that failure to act on these issues could indirectly lead to a political impasse that would provide a pretext for the declaration of a state of emergency, which could in turn lead to the collapse of the state. It made several recommendations to parliament, the election commission and the international community to help assure a peaceful political transition. Nato combat troops are set to withdraw by the end of 2014, but a central plank of the strategy is that foreign soldiers will serve alongside and train Afghans for many years to come.[/QUOTE] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19868043[/url] Ah whats new, the country has always been a shit hole and probably always will be a shit hole.
[QUOTE=dunkace;37956835][b]probably always will be a shit hole.[/b][/QUOTE]
Going the way of the other government propped up by US military intervention it seems [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] minus the communists of course
You'd think this shit would be obvious by now. South Vietnam for example. Learn from your mistakes? I guess not.
What else is new? The middle east has been at war with itself for three millenia at least. Likely will be for another three millenia as well.
All that man power wasted, I think Nato best take a seat up with Russia and open a bottle. Because its only going to turn out the same way.
middle east was peaceful haven of incredible culture before america came and destroyed everything great and used their propaganda to make everyone hateful towards the people of the middle east. [highlight](User was permabanned for this post ("Alt of perma'd user Muffy, Brain etc" - Orkel))[/highlight]
It could collapse [I]tomorrow[/I].
[QUOTE=Marbalo;37957122]The people of Afghanistan need to evolve and grow into the concept of a free, Western and democratic lifestyle by themselves, and only when they are ready, should they overthrow the Taliban and help shape their country into a better place. Having drones flying overhead 24/7 and patrols marching into villages on an hourly basis is just interfering with the process.[/QUOTE] I disagree pretty heavily with the 'need to evolve' into a westernised lifestyle, Afghanistan is perfectly capable, like all other countries, to integrate a free democracy into their culture without having to import western culture or ideas. [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] ideas beyond the actual concept of democracy
They doing okay before we fucked these regions after WW2.
[QUOTE=Killuah;37957389]They doing okay before we fucked these regions after WW2.[/QUOTE] [url]http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/05/27/once_upon_a_time_in_afghanistan[/url]
[QUOTE=Killuah;37957389]They doing okay before we fucked these regions after WW2.[/QUOTE] Well great, but a lot of regions were fucked even more during ww2 and managed to prop themselves up fairly well. And the serious deterioration happened in the 70's and 80's
[QUOTE=Megafan;37958590][url]http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/05/27/once_upon_a_time_in_afghanistan[/url][/QUOTE] That looks fucking beautiful compared to how it is today.. Wonder how the country would have looked like if the Soviet union didn't invade in the 70s
Karzai is corrupt as fuck to be honest.
[QUOTE=Killuah;37957389]They doing okay before we fucked these regions after WW2.[/QUOTE] Actually, I'd say that it really wasn't World War II that did them in as much as it was World War I after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, who had a holding over the lion's share of the Middle East. After it was dismantled, very little thought was put into the forming of the new nations, forming nations that intertwined different and hostile ethnic backgrounds and religious devotions (e.g. Sunnis and Shiites). The U.S. actually sent out a few diplomats to try to divide the empire up in a way that would be largely agreed throughout the Middle East, but these suggestions were thrown out during the considerations for the Treaty of Versailles by the other Allied powers. Of course, this was likely because the U.S. had only been involved in the war for one or two years so they had very little seniority over the other countries that had been fighting since it had broken out back in 1914. So really, most of the Middle Eastern countries were bound to be unstable from the very start just because of the way they were divided up upon the end of the first world war. There's not much you can do to stop it unless you were to completely topple the countries in question and establish new ones that better fit the ethnic and religious properties of each region, but even then there would be conflict between different countries and not just infighting.
Duh. I'm looking forward to seeing Karzai's corrupt head on a stake. Everybody knows as soon as we're gone, they'll fight it out and someone will end up in control.
In other news, the ocean does, in fact, contain water
there is nothing but sand and camels anyway, who cares. [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] i mean afghanistan is literally the biggest shithole of the mideast.
[QUOTE=MightyMax;37960323]there is nothing but sand and camels anyway, who cares. [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] i mean afghanistan is literally the biggest shithole of the mideast.[/QUOTE] But it's also sitting on a three trillion dollar lithium deposit and it's been pretty decent in the past. It's a tough fix, but possible.
[QUOTE=Fhenexx;37960361]But it's also sitting on a three trillion lithium deposit and it's been pretty decent in the past. It's a tough fix, but possible.[/QUOTE] Oh, wow. I didn't know that. How about we do invest in it a little bit and at least have a mining town that isn't made of sand patties and camel cum.
[QUOTE=Marbalo;37957122]This is what happens when you try to force a democratic lifestyle on people through war. Obviously NATO isn't entirely to blame here, as the region has been subject to invasions for over a thousand years now, but the latest US-led 'intervention' was foolish to assume it could be the one to finally succeed in turning things for the better. There's a reason why they call the place; "Where empires go to die". The people of Afghanistan need to evolve and grow into the concept of a free, Western and democratic lifestyle by themselves, and only when they are ready, should they overthrow the Taliban and help shape their country into a better place. Having drones flying overhead 24/7 and patrols marching into villages on an hourly basis is just interfering with the process.[/QUOTE] Why "Western"?
[QUOTE=Marbalo;37957122] The people of Afghanistan need to evolve and grow into the concept of a free, Western and democratic lifestyle by themselves, and only when they are ready, should they overthrow the Taliban and help shape their country into a better place.[/QUOTE] None of this will ever happen.
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