Great Barrier Reef not likely to survive if warming trend continues, says report
29 replies, posted
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/09/great-barrier-reef-not-likely-to-survive-if-warming-trend-continues-says-report[/url]
[QUOTE]
The Great Barrier Reef will not survive coral bleaching if current sea temperature trends continue, according to a new report charting increases over the past three decades which blames manmade climate change for the problem.
The study found thermal stress to coral reef areas was three times more likely when its investigation finished in 2012 compared with when it began in 1985, forecasting "more frequent and more severe" bleaching through the middle of this century.
[...]
"The likelihood of the reef being able to survive through that is extremely low," the report’s co-author, Scott Heron of the NOAA, told Guardian Australia. "If annual severe bleaching was happening across 98% of global reefs, it is very unlikely the Great Barrier Reef would be maintained."
The report found 97% of 60,000 coral reef locations risked bleaching across the timeframe studied, with "drastic increases" expected to follow. "Coral bleaching events have become and will continue to become more frequent and severe," it reads.
[/QUOTE]
And it will.
We are standing before one of the greatest catastrophes in history, and we're not doing enough to counter it. In fact, we have no shortage of people denying it altogether in government, business, etc.
This is heartbreaking.
[QUOTE=Lambeth;51536183]And it will.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I turned up the water temperature on my salt water tank by a couple degrees and it was just fine. It lasted a good, long 6 months. This climate change thing is way overblown.
I thought reports already said the reef was guaranteed to die even if we turned everything around, and that was months ago.
Is there a timeframe on how soon this could happen?
Anyone who believes simulation theory might as well give it up, cause I don't think we're gonna have any decedents to speak of running ancestor simulators.
So exactly what impact would this have anyways?
give me a worst case scenario, as well as a "technically may not be that bad" one
People will say that everything is fine and "there is no global warming/it's not as bad as scientists make it out to be" even when millions of people start dying because of it.
[Sp]After all, this is the reality we live in right now.[/sp]
[editline]16th December 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=J!NX;51536596]So exactly what impact would this have anyways?
give me a worst case scenario, as well as a "technically may not be that bad" one[/QUOTE]
Worst case scenario is a global extinction event, humanity is lucky if it survives this century.
[QUOTE=J!NX;51536596]So exactly what impact would this have anyways?
give me a worst case scenario, as well as a "technically may not be that bad" one[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=OvB;50189265]Coral reefs dying? Very badly for everyone. Fisheries collapse being on the low side of the spectrum, worldwide terrorism, famine, and economic collapse being on the high side.
Pretty much everything in the ocean depends on reefs for one thing, and if they don't, they depend on something that depends on the reefs. Without the reefs, an already over-exploited ocean is going to suffer. You can expect seafood to collapse, countries that depend on it (poor countries, especially) are going to fall apart into chaos and starvation. Terrorism and piracy will follow. People will try to immigrate to the west because their families will have to starve starve or resort to theft in their home countries. Global tourism will fall apart, losing many, many billions in revenue. Those countries that depend on that as part of their GDP will collapse (see: Caribbean) The seafood industry in the west will collapse, leaving thousands, if not millions globally out of work. The stock markets will fall apart because of all the global turmoil and the global economy will follow suit. The death of the ocean causes the collapse of what we know.
We've seen this in the small scale already. Somalia didn't resort to piracy because they felt like it or because some drug lord told them to. They became pirates because they were fishermen, and foreign fishing vessels exhausted their coastal waters during the war. Leaving them without work, food, and livelihood. To feed their families they resorted to chasing away the foreigners with guns and piracy. Organized crime and terrorism took advantage of the situation, and the rest is history.[/QUOTE]
More info:
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/07/the-great-barrier-reef-a-catastrophe-laid-bare[/url]
[QUOTE]
The thick seaweed is a sign of extreme ecosystem meltdown. Fish can no longer use the coral structure as shelter – blocked by the plants – and before long the coral structures themselves are likely to collapse, leaving little chance of full recovery within the next 10 years.
When the coral dies, the entire ecosystem around it transforms. Fish that feed on the coral, use it as shelter, or nibble on the algae that grows among it die or move away. The bigger fish that feed on those fish disappear too. But the cascading effects don’t stop there. Birds that eat fish lose their energy source, and island plants that thrive on bird droppings can be depleted. And, of course, people who rely on reefs for food, income or shelter from waves – some half a billion people worldwide – lose their vital resource.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=BlindSniper17;51536664]More info:
[url]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/07/the-great-barrier-reef-a-catastrophe-laid-bare[/url][/QUOTE]
All of that apocalyptic sounding stuff is discounting the effect some of the coral depending species [I]might[/I] have on global ecosystem and other calamities that might coincide with the death of coral reefs on Earth.
As I said, worst case scenario is "rocks fall, everybody dies".
good to see just how royally fucking the earth we're doing right now.
reminds me of that animation that shows all the land that will get swallowed up by the seas as global warming continues and the ice caps melt.
[QUOTE=Damjen;51536695]All of that apocalyptic sounding stuff is discounting the effect some of the coral depending species [I]might[/I] have on global ecosystem and other calamities that might coincide with the death of coral reefs on Earth.
As I said, worst case scenario is "rocks fall, everybody dies".[/QUOTE]
I don't think the 'possibility' of total ecosystem collapse is something to be responded to with "I'll take my chances".
[QUOTE=1239the;51536751]I don't think the 'possibility' of total ecosystem collapse is something to be responded to with "I'll take my chances".[/QUOTE]
yeah this isn't just "oh some animals die out so what" this is more "some animals die out causing many others to die out, many of which are consumed by humans, and then plants don't get pollinated and suddenly our crops aren't enough to feed us all and there's mass food shortage".
-snip-
[QUOTE=Propane Addict;51536215]Yeah, I turned up the water temperature on my salt water tank by a couple degrees and it was just fine. It lasted a good, long 6 months. This climate change thing is way overblown.[/QUOTE]
That's actually a good experiment to try.
[QUOTE=Sims_doc;51538222]That's actually a good experiment to try.[/QUOTE]
It's only part of the picture of what's actually happening.
We're looking at a situation where ocean warming, pH drops, and an excess nutrient load are hitting the reef all at the same time.
Bump your water temp up to 29C, drop your pH down to 8.1 or lower, let your phosphates and nitrates accumulate, and dump in some copper for good measure. For extra FUN!, break your colonies by hand to represent increased storm activity, and throw in some crown-of-thorns starfish to represent their population boom.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51536713]good to see just how royally fucking the earth we're doing right now.
reminds me of that animation that shows all the land that will get swallowed up by the seas as global warming continues and the ice caps melt.[/QUOTE]
We're not fucking the earth, we're just fucking over ourselves and a bunch of other species. If this is catastrophic enough that it wipes humans out, the earth will recover with time, it'll take awhile, but it'll come back.
Honestly the planet would bounce back fairly quickly without us
[QUOTE=Arc Nova;51538565]Honestly the planet would bounce back fairly quickly without us[/QUOTE]
The planet isn't going anywhere.
Life as we know it might. If we trigger another scenario like that of the Permian-Triassic extinction event it could take life millions of years to recover. That's a long time scale for us humans, but not that big of a deal for the earth itself.
[QUOTE=1legmidget;51538580]The planet isn't going anywhere.
Life as we know it might. If we trigger another scenario like that of the Permian-Triassic extinction event it could take life millions of years to recover. That's a long time scale for us humans, but not that big of a deal for the earth itself.[/QUOTE]
yup
I don't know enough about ocean currents and localized oceanic chemistry to know how the reef is going to be affected long-term by what's already in the water. I read that the State of Washington is expecting to deal with low pH water for ~30 some years even if we were to cut all CO2 emissions permanently today, as the carbonic acid is already in deep currents that take that long to reach them. That's 30 years worth of damage done that we're currently powerless to prevent.
I'm sure the GBR is going to have to deal with something similar.
[QUOTE=Sims_doc;51538222]That's actually a good experiment to try.[/QUOTE]
why bother when it's already happening right before our eyes???!
Whenever I see people complain about us killing the planet I'm reminded of that George Carlin skit,
[video]https://youtu.be/YawTvnyoqbU[/video]
It's still not a good thing at all obviously, but the Earth is going absolutely nowhere
[QUOTE=angelangel;51538701]why bother when it's already happening right before our eyes???![/QUOTE]
There's some research being done on breeding/conditioning corals to survive in these new ocean conditions so that we can attempt to reseed reefs with cultured corals. That I think is useful.
Of course the organisms I'm most interested in (gorgonians and sponges for them terpenoids) are also some of the ones with the lowest success rate in captive care and breeding.
But yeah, I wish we didn't have to crash tanks for the public for people to understand what's going on.
[QUOTE=1239the;51536751]I don't think the 'possibility' of total ecosystem collapse is something to be responded to with "I'll take my chances".[/QUOTE]
We're completely and utterly fucked, the damage is already done. I just said that the situation might be even [I][B]worse[/B][/I] because of things we don't know about.
There might be an algae or a fish or a bacteria exclusive to Great Barrier Reef that's absolutely [B][I][U]necessary[/U][/I][/B] to the survival of current global ecosystem and nobody knows about it because so much stuff lives there
[QUOTE=Damjen;51539532]We're completely and utterly fucked, the damage is already done. I just said that the situation might be even [I][B]worse[/B][/I] because of things we don't know about.
There might be an algae or a fish or a bacteria exclusive to Great Barrier Reef that's absolutely [B][I][U]necessary[/U][/I][/B] to the survival of current global ecosystem and nobody knows about it because so much stuff lives there[/QUOTE]
We still have several last-ditch options open, like geo-engineering. Just that it will cause massive problems in the short term for long term safety.
[QUOTE=1239the;51545443]We still have several last-ditch options open, like geo-engineering. Just that it will cause massive problems in the short term for long term safety.[/QUOTE]
Thankfully the most reasonable and quickest solution with the least drawbacks is Solar Radiation Management, specifically cloud brightening.
Get a fleet of drone ships that suck up seawater and mist it out into the air to create artificial clouds to reflect the sunlight.
[IMG]http://cdns.yournewswire.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Cloud-brightening-geoengineering-696x445.jpg[/IMG]
Of course this isn't permanent, the CO2 is still there, but its a last-ditch time buyer whilst we get our shit in order.
[QUOTE=Lambeth;51536183]And it will.[/QUOTE]
avatar fits
[QUOTE=LoneWolf_Recon;51548828]Thankfully the most reasonable and quickest solution with the least drawbacks is Solar Radiation Management, specifically cloud brightening.
Get a fleet of drone ships that suck up seawater and mist it out into the air to create artificial clouds to reflect the sunlight.
[IMG]http://cdns.yournewswire.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Cloud-brightening-geoengineering-696x445.jpg[/IMG]
Of course this isn't permanent, the CO2 is still there, but its a last-ditch time buyer whilst we get our shit in order.[/QUOTE]
This also doesn't fix the acidification problem from too much co2 which will kill the reefs anyway.
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