Yeah. You read it right.
[img]http://fdforms.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/284181326775018.jpg[/img]
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-05/ruble-whipsaws-top-forecasters-as-worst-currency-becomes-best[/url]
[quote]
For one of the toughest jobs in financial markets, try predicting the ruble.
As Russia’s currency went from the [B]world’s worst performer to the best in the first three months of this year[/B], it caught out even the most accurate forecasters. Oil’s drop to near a six-year low and cuts in interest rates, previous indicators of a weakening ruble, were swept aside as the cease-fire in Ukraine became the bigger determinant.
“None of my expectations regarding the ruble came true,” Evgeny Shilenkov, the head of trading at Veles Capital LLC in Moscow, said by phone on Thursday. Shilenkov had forecast the ruble would weaken as much as 3.6 percent in the quarter. “This is our new reality -- there are too many different factors affecting the ruble, there are too many elements in the ruble matrix. [B]The ruble is completely unpredictable[/B].”
Investors should stay focused on eastern Ukraine to gauge the ruble’s direction, said Simon Quijano-Evans, the head of emerging-market research at Commerzbank AG in London, whose forecasts in the past four quarters came the closest to matching the market moves. He predicts a 3.9 percent advance in the ruble this quarter and gains for domestic bonds, based on a prolonged cease-fire averting the prospect of tougher Western sanctions and crude avoiding a further slump.
Swings in the ruble underline the difficulty for analysts. One-month implied volatility for the currency was the highest in the world at the end of the quarter, raising the cost of hedging and making moves harder to predict. The ruble slumped 46 percent last year, the most among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
[B]‘Unenviable’[/B]
“Currency forecasting is, in principle, an unenviable task,” said Ivan Tchakarov, a Moscow-based economist at Citigroup Inc., the second-most accurate ruble forecaster by Bloomberg data. Tchakarov had predicted the ruble weakening in the first quarter. “It becomes even more difficult during times of excessive market turbulence, which was the case in Russia over the last couple of months,” he said by e-mail Thursday.
The ruble rallied 4.4 percent in the first quarter, even as the Bank of Russia cut its benchmark borrowing rate a total of 300 basis points and Brent crude traded at an average of $55.17 a barrel, 29 percent lower than in the previous three months. The ruble advanced for a fourth day, adding 1.8 percent to 55.6060 versus the dollar as of 5:24 p.m. in Moscow on Monday.
[B]Complex Interplay[/B]
The gains of the first quarter will likely continue in the second, according to Tatiana Orlova, chief Russia economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. Russian companies will need to buy fewer dollars because foreign-debt payments will be 42 percent less than in January through March, she said.
The currency will strengthen 5.1 percent to 55.4 against the dollar by the end of June, Orlova predicts. RBS was the sixth-most accurate forecaster for the ruble, the Bloomberg survey showed.
Tchakarov disagrees, and bases his forecast on declining oil prices. He sees the ruble slumping 13 percent in the second quarter to 67 versus the dollar as Citigroup predicts the glut in crude reaching a peak and prices dropping to $40 per barrel.
Oil in New York closed last week at $49.14 per barrel and is down 7.8 percent this year. Brent, the benchmark used to price Russia’s main export blend, has fallen 4.2 percent in the period to $54.95.
The ruble is also subject to changes in the economy and developments in Ukraine.
While analysts predict the economy will contract 2.8 percent in the first quarter, it unexpectedly grew 0.4 percent in the fourth. Even as the February cease-fire between pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine government troops eased concern sanctions will be tightened, the sides continue to swap blame for frequent violations.
“It is the multitude and complex interplay of different factors driving the ruble exchange rate that made forecasting it so difficult,” RBS’s Orlova said.[/quote]
Rev up those economical predictions!
[QUOTE][B]The Ruble is completely Unpredictable[/B][/QUOTE]
I guess the ruble is the real world equivalent to bit coin.
[quote]He predicts a 3.9 percent advance in the ruble this quarter and gains for domestic bonds, [B]based on a prolonged cease-fire averting the prospect of tougher Western sanctions and crude avoiding a further slump.[/B][/quote]
Right now that seems like a big if
So basically what they've said is, that trying to predict what the Ruble will do is a complete waste of time because at any given moment it could skyrocket or plummet.
I don't know why you're so pleased man, your currency is so flimsy that it changes at the drop of a hat, I can't imagine wanting to get involved in that shit if I was in business.
How exactly has the Ruble become the "best"? Isn't it still [b]way[/b] below its value below the sanctions, like, dramatically so? Every single currency graph seems to be showing that, I mean it's certainly rising but how would that make it the best, it's still really weak
[QUOTE=Elspin;47468646]How exactly has the Ruble become the "best"? Isn't it still [b]way[/b] below its value below the sanctions, like, dramatically so? Every single currency graph seems to be showing that, I mean it's certainly rising but how would that make it the best, it's still really weak[/QUOTE]
Well, it says in the article it dropped in value by like 50%, but it climbed by almost 6%, so that means it's the best right?
Right guys?
Good thinking Putin, having Orthodox priests bless the banks' servers.
[QUOTE=Rapscallion92;47468626]So basically what they've said is, that trying to predict what the Ruble will do is a complete waste of time because at any given moment it could skyrocket or plummet.
I don't know why you're so pleased man, your currency is so flimsy that it changes at the drop of a hat, I can't imagine wanting to get involved in that shit if I was in business.[/QUOTE]
How am i pleased by that exactly?
I've just shared news that caugh everyone offguard here aswell, it's not like i am celebrating or something.
[editline]6th April 2015[/editline]
[QUOTE=CoilingTesla;47468670]Good thinking Putin, having Orthodox priests bless the banks' servers.[/QUOTE]
The Holy buff was never a bluff.
[IMG]https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/25546454/ShareX/2015-04-06_11-18-51.png[/IMG]
Truly an incredible performer. I should have invested in the ruble years ago.
[QUOTE=Rapscallion92;47468648]Well, it says in the article it dropped in value by like 50%, but it climbed by almost 6%, so that means it's the best right?
Right guys?[/QUOTE]
it sounds like the article is written by Ray from Trailer Park Boys. He's not seeing the vast amount of how much has been lost, only the small amount it has gained and thinking it's coming better
the rub stands for rubbish
seriously tho good job based putin
[QUOTE=Rapscallion92;47468648]Well, it says in the article it dropped in value by like 50%, but it climbed by almost 6%, so that means it's the best right?
Right guys?[/QUOTE]
Reminds me of this xkcd comic
[img]https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/fastest_growing.png[/img]
You can't just say "Wow! Look at how fast this is growing!" without considering just how bad it is, I mean if the Zimbabwean dollar grew 400% in a single day it would still be worth about a penny
Best currency unless you look out of this very very specific window we chose to make up this story thanks for the click and reading by the way.
[QUOTE=Elspin;47468785]You can't just say "Wow! Look at how fast this is growing!" without considering just how bad it is, I mean if the Zimbabwean dollar grew 400% in a single day it would still be worth about a penny[/QUOTE]
On the contrary, if you convert a million USD to Zimbabwean dollars, and then the Zimbabwean dollar grows 400% in a single day, then overnight you have enough Zimbabwean dollars to convert back to five million USD.
To an investor, the rate of growth and promise of return are absolutely what's important, not the absolute value, which is of more relevance to international businesses. Right now the ruble is in a slump so it's the perfect time to invest.
[QUOTE=catbarf;47469067]On the contrary, if you convert a million USD to Zimbabwean dollars, and then the Zimbabwean dollar grows 400% in a single day, then overnight you have enough Zimbabwean dollars to convert back to five million USD.
To an investor, the rate of growth and promise of return are absolutely what's important, not the absolute value, which is of more relevance to international businesses. Right now the ruble is in a slump so it's the perfect time to invest.[/QUOTE]
If they had said "The ruble is the best currency to invest in" I'd be a little more neutral on the article but to call it just "the best currency" is what I take issue with :v:
I mean the people it matters most to is the Russian people and I imagine if your currency is still worth very little on the international scale it's of small comfort that some investors made a lot of money off a little recovery
I doubt it will recover anytime soon, oil is being predicted to stay sub 50$/barrel, Russia's last budget was pegged at oil being 110$/barrel. The Russian economy and by extension it's currency are still very much based on oil prices. Plus the sanctions are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
[QUOTE=Sableye;47469216]I doubt it will recover anytime soon, oil is being predicted to stay sub 50$/barrel, Russia's last budget was pegged at oil being 110$/barrel. The Russian economy and by extension it's currency are still very much based on oil prices. Plus the sanctions are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]
Ruble was predicted to never be fewer than 59 rubles for 1 dollar. Right now it is 56 and decreasing.
Economics nowadays can be realy unpredictable.
What stops someone from buying 100 euro worth of roubles, then in few years time selling them? (if it ever recovers)
[QUOTE=arleitiss;47476092]What stops someone from buying 100 euro worth of roubles, then in few years time selling them? (if it ever recovers)[/QUOTE]
Nothing at all, in fact some people make a living from this kind of trading. It's called foreign exchange.
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market[/url]
[QUOTE=arleitiss;47476092]What stops someone from buying 100 euro worth of roubles, then in few years time selling them? (if it ever recovers)[/QUOTE]
Nothing. You'll just be eating a fee for currency conversion, but if the value of the currency changes wildly then you can make some money on it.
The article is saying the ruble could be the best currency because this is Bloomberg Business and it's aimed at investors. To an investor, volatility is dangerous, but the prospect of the Russian economy bouncing back represents an attractive opportunity.
[QUOTE=hrak;47476099]Nothing at all, in fact some people make a living from this kind of trading. It's called foreign exchange.
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market[/url][/QUOTE]
By saying someone I meant myself, I thought there is some catch behind this?
[QUOTE=Deathtrooper2;47468603]I guess the ruble is the real world equivalent to bit coin.[/QUOTE]
i wonder how long it'll take for crowds of fat investors that chant "its the future you dont understand" to appear in the moscow stock exchange
[QUOTE=arleitiss;47476123]By saying someone I meant myself, I thought there is some catch behind this?[/QUOTE]
I think if you only buy one hundred euro worth, it might end up being only a small profit or none at all depending on how the ruble ends up, because broker fees eat up a good percent of smaller transactions
[QUOTE=hrak;47476153]I think if you only buy one hundred euro worth, it might end up being only a small profit or none at all depending on how the ruble ends up, because broker fees eat up a good percent of smaller transactions[/QUOTE]
ah, thats what I thought, I guess this can be profitable only if you spend like 50'000 Euros on roubles.
[QUOTE=arleitiss;47476190]ah, thats what I thought, I guess this can be profitable only if you spend like 50'000 Euros on roubles.[/QUOTE]
Not to mention taxes depending on where you are. I know the US taxes currency exchange gains.
According to hidden sources found within Russian social network, on the current moment Rouble is at a high - a whooping 1 RUB to 1 RUB! No sanctions can diminish the POWER OF ROUBLE
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