• What's Next For Egypt: 3 Scenarios
    12 replies, posted
[IMG]http://media.npr.org/chrome/news/npr-home.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://media.npr.org/branding/blogs/parallels/branding_main-639a87ba9331cc23ba614e1767f2d2880dcec346.png[/IMG] [QUOTE][IMG]http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2013/08/18/egypt_3scenarios_custom-4a2ae33cb73e9803c126f66a8756e5403503034e-s40-c85.jpg[/IMG] [I]An army officer escorts an Islamist man from Cairo's Fateh mosque on Saturday. Islamist supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi holed up in the mosque on Friday, instigating a standoff with security forces surrounding the building.[/I][/QUOTE] [QUOTE]For two years, the conversation on Egypt centered on how to build a democracy. Suddenly the discussion has turned much darker, with some wondering aloud whether the largest Arab nation is hurtling toward civil war. [B]...[/B][/QUOTE] [QUOTE][B]1. Reconciliation.[/B] The military has been the dominant institution in Egypt for six decades while the Muslim Brotherhood has survived bans, crackdowns and restrictions throughout its history, which stretches back to 1928. [B]...[/B][/QUOTE] [QUOTE][B]2. Military Rule.[/B] The military can very likely maintain its grip, but there's little likelihood the country will be stable, let alone prosperous, as long as the generals are effectively calling the shots. [B]...[/B][/QUOTE] [QUOTE][B]3. Civil War.[/B] The Arab uprisings have spawned multiple conflicts. Syria is locked in a brutal civil war. Libya had an intense, if relatively brief war in 2011. Yemen still smolders with a persistent, low-level conflict. [B]...[/B][/QUOTE] [B]Read the rest of the article here:[/B] [url]http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/08/18/212636039/whats-next-for-egypt-3-scenarios[/url]
I think the Army did the right thing in deposing Morsi but they have handled the aftermath really badly. Arresting all the higher ups and Muslim Brotherhood members just after was a really bad idea.
[QUOTE=The mouse;41882651]I think the Army did the right thing in deposing Morsi but they have handled the aftermath really badly. Arresting all the higher ups and Muslim Brotherhood members just after was a really bad idea.[/QUOTE] Doesn't matter about that. That's meh shit. Shooting people just because they can shoot people is completely just like woah.
[QUOTE=The mouse;41882651]I think the Army did the right thing in deposing Morsi but they have handled the aftermath really badly. Arresting all the higher ups and Muslim Brotherhood members just after was a really bad idea.[/QUOTE] The thing is though Morsi was democratically elected. It is honestly a tough issue. Keep a leader who is a Muslim extremist or break the democracy by having the military force him out.
[QUOTE=matt000024;41882770]The thing is though Morsi was democratically elected. It is honestly a tough issue. Keep a leader who is a Muslim extremist or break the democracy by having the military force him out.[/QUOTE] Wasn't the problem that elections that discard part of the votes (currently any presidential election systems and those that have a threshold clause afaik) favour dissimilar candidates? Iirc the decision became between Morsi and a supporter of the previous regime, despite most people voting moderate because their support was too divided. [URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y3jE3B8HsE"]I'd love a system where I can give my vote to someone else if my first choice is thrown out.[/URL] (Germany doesn't have large direct election for candidates (if you don't count direct mandates in proportional elections), but voting for the smaller party I'd prefer would mean gambling my vote due to the 5%-rule.)
Egyptians everywhere seem pretty divided on the crisis. Apparently there have been pro-Morsi and pro-Military protestors shouting each other down in Canada as well.
It's an honest to god shitstorm in Egypt, with no good or bad side. I really hope it doesn't dissolve into another civil war, although I don't think that'd end well for the MB supporters since the Egyptian military is very capable. But that's all the more reason to keep its power in check. You can't build a legitimate democracy on military coups.
[QUOTE=matt000024;41882770]The thing is though Morsi was democratically elected. It is honestly a tough issue. Keep a leader who is a Muslim extremist or break the democracy by having the military force him out.[/QUOTE] He wasn't even[I] that[/I] extreme (for middle eastern politics heh). He is the moderate conservative of the Islam scale. The muslim brotherhood is just an old timey conservative party. At least that's part of it. [editline]18th August 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=The golden;41886161]Morsi was elected by the people so he could address Egypt's economy and get things rolling again after Mubarak. What's the first thing Morsi prioritized? Granting himself absolute power and an attempt to rewrite the constitution to be pro-muslim. The majority of Egyptians were not happy with him and were on the streets rioting. If the military did not oust Morsi then it just would have been the people that would have done it. It was only a matter of time. The crowds of anti-Morsi rioters were fucking huge.[/QUOTE] which is weird since they voted for him, and I don't think he ever campaigned on sweeping changes and big reforms. He's a conservative Islamist, change is slow for them. Doesn't mean he should be immediately ousted though
Democracies do not appear over night, especially when a country has had such a long history of dictatorships.
democracy in general doesn't seem to agree with the middle east culture. just about every "democracy" that was started in the aftermath of the second world war and in the 50s ended up as either a corrupt as fuck semi-dictatorship like egypt and pakistan or just a fully fledged dictatorship like iran and iraq (ok iraq kinda fits both)
[QUOTE=Sableye;41886962]democracy in general doesn't seem to agree with the middle east culture. just about every "democracy" that was started in the aftermath of the second world war and in the 50s ended up as either a corrupt as fuck semi-dictatorship like egypt and pakistan or just a fully fledged dictatorship like iran and iraq (ok iraq kinda fits both)[/QUOTE] Do you know how long it took Europe to get democracy? An awfully long time in their history. Democracies take a long time to form and most often need a small democratic parts of it to grease the wheels, like how the American colonies had many democratic governments on the local level which later led to the democratic government on a national level after independence. Places like Egypt don't have such small operations to grease the wheels to a better tomorrow and so must struggle, like many other non-middle eastern nations, to reach it.
[QUOTE=matt000024;41882770]The thing is though Morsi was democratically elected. It is honestly a tough issue. Keep a leader who is a Muslim extremist or break the democracy by having the military force him out.[/QUOTE] He was a terrible President, but I would not go as far as to call him an Extremist. He was simply a Moderate who was terrible at being President. [QUOTE=The mouse;41882651]I think the Army did the right thing in deposing Morsi but they have handled the aftermath really badly. Arresting all the higher ups and Muslim Brotherhood members just after was a really bad idea.[/QUOTE] Deposing a democratically elected President, even a terrible one, in a coup is a bad idea. Although one could find justification in kicking him out due to his power grabs, the ensuing massacres make Morsi and his presidency seem much better in comparison. Saying that Morsi failed due to being and Islamist reminds me of the age old Western notion that Arabs are incompatible with Democracy, a racist and politically convenient (remember how much money we gave to Mubarrak?) way of thinking. The truth is that many things lead to Morsi's ouster, much more than just his incompetence and power grabbing. This -> [url]http://mondediplo.com/2012/08/02egypt[/url] article in Le Monde Diplomatique sums everything up very well by dismantling the way the media has covered the coup. The article justly points out the inconsistencies in the number of protesters, the number of petition signatures, the charges against Morsi, and the way prices instantly fell and the way the police immediately began to work again as Morsi was carted off to an unknown base. The truth is that this entire series of events was a carefully orchestrated coup. The military, not satisfied with the possibility of a true democracy forming, worked with the entrenched Mubarrak era interests (the police and the corporations) to worsen the state of Egypt under Morsi. This, combined with Morsi's incompetence, allowed them to spur a protest movement against the government using an unreliable petition and exaggerated crowd counts. I am not dismissing the people who were on the streets that night, however, there was definitely extreme anger against Morsi. Once they removed Morsi from power, they made up criminal charges that had no existence before the coup in order to delegitimatize him furhter. The media has been taken over, and the new constitution in the works still has no civilian oversight over the military. The Military, not content with Spring, has once again returned to Winter, with the full support of the people, due to Morsi's unpopularity. There is no reason to be happy that Morsi is gone, and there is no silver lining in this dark cloud. At least there won't be any religious and conservative crap? Well, the article points out that some members of the new government were the same people who instituted virginity tests in the weeks after the Spring. Rapes are still extremely common during rallies, the only difference is that leftists are doing it instead of Islamists. What's next for Egypt is either Civil War or years of Military Dictatorship. In hindsight, all the military's promises during the Spring were political manoeuvres, in preparation for this coup. Whatever democracy they will set up will most likely be a sham. [editline]18th August 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;41887010]Do you know how long it took Europe to get democracy? An awfully long time in their history. Democracies take a long time to form and most often need a small democratic parts of it to grease the wheels, like how the American colonies had many democratic governments on the local level which later led to the democratic government on a national level after independence. Places like Egypt don't have such small operations to grease the wheels to a better tomorrow and so must struggle, like many other non-middle eastern nations, to reach it.[/QUOTE] I agree. Essentially, Morsi was powerless to remove the pro-Mubarak institutions from power, and they conspired against him. Besides the government itself, there was nothing else to grease the cogs of democracy, only rusty remains of the old system to hinder it.
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