Chinese think tank warns US it will emerge as loser in trade war
30 replies, posted
[QUOTE]Ding Yifan, a policy guru at the Development Research Centre, said China could respond by selling holdings of US debt, estimated at over $1.5 trillion (£963bn). This would trigger a rise in US interest rates. His comments at a forum in Beijing follow a string of remarks by Chinese officials questioning US credit-worthiness and the reliability of the dollar.
China's authorities seem split over how to respond to moves on Capitol Hill for legislation to punish Beijing for holding down the yuan. The central bank has ruled out use of its "nuclear weapon", insisting that it would not exploit its $2.45 trillion of foreign reserves for political purposes. "The US Treasury market is a very important market for China," it said.
However, the mood is hardening on both sides of the Pacific. The dispute risks escalating if China's trade surplus with the US climbs further and more US jobs are lost. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who has taken a softly-softly line in the past, said on Friday that China had done "very little" to correct the undervaluation of the yuan since ending the dollar peg in June.
Mr Ding reflects thinking among some in the Poltiburo, who seem convinced that the US is in decline and that China's rise as an exporter of goods and capital give it the upper hand.
"They are utterly wrong," said Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research. "The lesson of the 1930s is that surplus countries with structurally weak domestic demand come off worst in a trade war."
He described the implicit threat to sell Treasuries as "empty bluster" because Beijing's purchase of these bonds is a side-effect of its yuan policy. "Bring it on: it will weaken the dollar, which is what the US wants. The interest rate effect can be countered by the Fed."
"Some Chinese officials seem to believe that buying Treasuries underpins US public spending. In fact China's mercantilist policy is forcing the US to run large deficits against its own interest. China should be terrified of a trade war."
[/QUOTE]
Source: [url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8002719/Chinese-think-tank-warns-US-it-will-emerge-as-loser-in-trade-war.html[/url]
:911::china:
Everyone knew this from the start.
This is what I was talking about in the other threads. This is the ONLY kind of war between China and America, an economic one.
[QUOTE=teh pirate;24898483]Considering how jumpy and paranoid the US government's been recently, it could turn bloody if China tried to screw us over.[/QUOTE]
Go away. "Sir Obama the CHINESE STOCKS ARE HIGHER THAN OURS"
[I]"Prepare the submarines."[/I]
Considering how jumpy and paranoid the US government's been recently, it could turn bloody if China tried to screw us over.
Oh boy its just like Fallout 3!
Well look at it this way, around 70% of the products you buy in the US are made in china. We are the market for the vast majority of all their goods, including cars, tools electronics, clothing, ext. If they think they have the upper hand on exported goods consider what would happen if we stopped trade with them all together. If then really want to screw us, we can take them down right along with us.
[QUOTE=will721;24899081]Well look at it this way, around 70% of the products you buy in the US are made in china. We are the market for the vast majority of all their goods, including cars, tools electronics, clothing, ext. If they think they have the upper hand on exported goods consider what would happen if we stopped trade with them all together. If then really want to screw us, we can take them down right along with us.[/QUOTE]
They export to whole world, not only USA. They could live without the share of exports USA gives them. USA couldn't live without the share of cheap imports from China.
They're bluffing.
Bring it on.
Mr. Ding is a Ding Dong.
[QUOTE=Awesomecaek;24899172]They export to whole world, not only USA. [B]They could live without the share of exports USA gives them. [/B]USA couldn't live without the share of cheap imports from China.[/QUOTE]
Not really. USA and China need eachother.
In the true American way we'll just end up defecting on our "loans."
:v:
This would force us to produce own goods domestically, it'll hurt badly in the short term, but in the long term it could benefit the US greatly.
[QUOTE=will721;24899081]Well look at it this way, around 70% of the products you buy in the US are made in china. We are the market for the vast majority of all their goods, including cars, tools electronics, clothing, ext. If they think they have the upper hand on exported goods consider what would happen if we stopped trade with them all together. If then really want to screw us, we can take them down right along with us.[/QUOTE]
Actually, China needs us much more then we need them. They depend on our consumers to fund their economy, and on top of that, the U.S., Japan and Australia(the top three biggest food exporters in the world, I might add) are responsible for feeding a large portion of China's population.
We in America can live without cheap goods. They can't live without food.
"Ding Yifan" Seems like an idiot who shouldn't have a job right now, though, they have legitimate concern over the structure of the dollar a "war" isn't what i would call it.
I would call the USA a host and China a parasite (economically) or if you want to be more gracious, it is a symbiotic relationship.
It would be more appropriately named a "Going down with the ship" as opposed to a "war".
Calling in their debt would be a bold move, though, it would mean serious repercussions on United States politics, economy and many other things.
wait a second... maybe that's why they're trying to become self-sufficient.. so they can fuck with america
my god
'ding yifan'
why does his name make me laugh?
yiff my ding?
[QUOTE=LODY;24926596]'ding yifan'
why does his name make me laugh?
yiff my ding?[/QUOTE]
Probably because your immature and most likely 12 or has the mental capacity of a 12 year old
it could actually strengthen the dollar, by making all the things higher priced. The less you have for something, the more that currency will mature. the prices will decrease with the strength of the dollar increasing, Because we'd have to save up more money to buy the things we need, less cash in the flow of things, The lower the prices drop.
[QUOTE=Gordy H.;24914404]Actually, China needs us much more then we need them. They depend on our consumers to fund their economy, and on top of that, the U.S., Japan and Australia(the top three biggest food exporters in the world, I might add) are responsible for feeding a large portion of China's population.
We in America can live without cheap goods. They can't live without food.[/QUOTE]
Good sources please. Prefferably from an American .gov institution please.
[editline]11:29PM[/editline]
Why are you assuming USA is the only country in the world? Are you that narrow minded?
[editline]11:31PM[/editline]
China Exports to U.S.
Of the $287.8 billion in American imports from China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Computer accessories, peripherals and parts …US$28.9 billion (10.1% of China to U.S. exports, up 12.4% from 2005)
Miscellaneous household goods (e.g. clocks) … $26.5 billion (9.2%, up 17.2%)
Toys & sporting goods (e.g. bicycles) … $22.2 billion (7.7%, up 10.2%)
Computers … $17.4 billion (6%, up 20.2%)
Non-cotton household furnishings & clothing … $14.6 billion (5.1%, up 11.3%)
Video equipment (e.g. DVD players) … $14.5 billion (5.0%, up 34.9%)
Household furniture … $13.2 billion (4.6%, up 14.3%)
Footwear ... $10.7 billion (3.7%, up 11.1%)
Cotton household furnishings & clothing … $9.9 billion (3.4%, up 29.6%)
Telecommunications equipment … $8.3 billion (3.0%, up 23.7%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Exports to U.S.
Below are American imports from China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Zinc … US$8.6 million (up 616% from 2005)
Nickel … $25.9 million (up 273%)
Lumber … $74.7 million (up 213%)
Specialized mining & oil processing equipment … $96.6 million (up 188%)
Oil field drilling equipment & platforms … $1.6 billion (up 182%)
China Imports from U.S.
Of the $55.2 billion in American exports to China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Semi-conductors … US$5.9 billion (10.6% of China from U.S. imports, up 74.7% from 2005)
Civilian aircraft … $5.3 billion (9.6%, up 39.7%)
Soybeans … $2.5 billion (4.6%, up 12.5%)
Plastics …. $2.2 billion (3.9%, up 18.8%)
Raw cotton … $2.1 billion (3.7%, up 47%)
Industrial machines … $1.97 billion (3.6%, up 29%)
Copper … $1.86 billion (3.4%, up 99.7%)
Computer accessories … $1.82 billion (3.3%, up 27.5%)
Aluminum … $1.7 billion (3.1%, up 90.3%)
Steelmaking material … $1.69 billion (3.1%, up 11.9%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Imports from U.S.
Below are American exports to China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Unmanufactured tobacco … US$61.4 million (up 3127% from 2005)
Corn … $22.6 million (up 2963%)
Oilseeds & food oils … $60.7 million (up 970%)
Precious metals … $305 million (up 205.2%)
Railway transportation equipment … $220 million (up 146%)
[editline]11:32PM[/editline]
US Census Bureau - Foreign Trade Statistics
[editline]11:32PM[/editline]
Where are all the food?
[editline]11:35PM[/editline]
Conclusion: [b]Stop pulling shit from your ass[/b]
[editline]11:36PM[/editline]
Of course no one will read this post cause you are afraid to admit that US is a country depending on other and that's soon going to fall.
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
"China is the world's top producer of agricultural products by value, with total production of about Y 4,078 billion (US$536 billion), says the WTO report. "Despite rising value of production, the contribution of agriculture to GDP continued to decline, falling from 11.1 percent in 2006 to 10.7 percent in 2008 and 10.6 percent in 2009 because of even more rapid growth in other sectors of the economy."
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
Exports from China increased by 8.7 percent in 2008, according to WTO. Agricultural products accounted for 2.5 percent of China's total exports. Its largest food export market is Japan.
[editline]11:42PM[/editline]
I can't see how they are getting fed by US, Japan and Australia.
[QUOTE=Swebonny;24928499]Good sources please. Prefferably from an American .gov institution please.
[editline]11:29PM[/editline]
Why are you assuming USA is the only country in the world? Are you that narrow minded?
[editline]11:31PM[/editline]
China Exports to U.S.
Of the $287.8 billion in American imports from China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Computer accessories, peripherals and parts …US$28.9 billion (10.1% of China to U.S. exports, up 12.4% from 2005)
Miscellaneous household goods (e.g. clocks) … $26.5 billion (9.2%, up 17.2%)
Toys & sporting goods (e.g. bicycles) … $22.2 billion (7.7%, up 10.2%)
Computers … $17.4 billion (6%, up 20.2%)
Non-cotton household furnishings & clothing … $14.6 billion (5.1%, up 11.3%)
Video equipment (e.g. DVD players) … $14.5 billion (5.0%, up 34.9%)
Household furniture … $13.2 billion (4.6%, up 14.3%)
Footwear ... $10.7 billion (3.7%, up 11.1%)
Cotton household furnishings & clothing … $9.9 billion (3.4%, up 29.6%)
Telecommunications equipment … $8.3 billion (3.0%, up 23.7%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Exports to U.S.
Below are American imports from China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Zinc … US$8.6 million (up 616% from 2005)
Nickel … $25.9 million (up 273%)
Lumber … $74.7 million (up 213%)
Specialized mining & oil processing equipment … $96.6 million (up 188%)
Oil field drilling equipment & platforms … $1.6 billion (up 182%)
China Imports from U.S.
Of the $55.2 billion in American exports to China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Semi-conductors … US$5.9 billion (10.6% of China from U.S. imports, up 74.7% from 2005)
Civilian aircraft … $5.3 billion (9.6%, up 39.7%)
Soybeans … $2.5 billion (4.6%, up 12.5%)
Plastics …. $2.2 billion (3.9%, up 18.8%)
Raw cotton … $2.1 billion (3.7%, up 47%)
Industrial machines … $1.97 billion (3.6%, up 29%)
Copper … $1.86 billion (3.4%, up 99.7%)
Computer accessories … $1.82 billion (3.3%, up 27.5%)
Aluminum … $1.7 billion (3.1%, up 90.3%)
Steelmaking material … $1.69 billion (3.1%, up 11.9%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Imports from U.S.
Below are American exports to China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Unmanufactured tobacco … US$61.4 million (up 3127% from 2005)
Corn … $22.6 million (up 2963%)
Oilseeds & food oils … $60.7 million (up 970%)
Precious metals … $305 million (up 205.2%)
Railway transportation equipment … $220 million (up 146%)
[editline]11:32PM[/editline]
US Census Bureau - Foreign Trade Statistics
[editline]11:32PM[/editline]
Where are all the food?
[editline]11:35PM[/editline]
Conclusion: [b]Stop pulling shit from your ass[/b]
[editline]11:36PM[/editline]
Of course no one will read this post cause you are afraid to admit that US is a country depending on other and that's soon going to fall.
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
"China is the world's top producer of agricultural products by value, with total production of about Y 4,078 billion (US$536 billion), says the WTO report. "Despite rising value of production, the contribution of agriculture to GDP continued to decline, falling from 11.1 percent in 2006 to 10.7 percent in 2008 and 10.6 percent in 2009 because of even more rapid growth in other sectors of the economy."
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
Exports from China increased by 8.7 percent in 2008, according to WTO. Agricultural products accounted for 2.5 percent of China's total exports. Its largest food export market is Japan.
[editline]11:42PM[/editline]
I can't see how they are getting fed by US, Japan and Australia.[/QUOTE]
Damn thats a lot of edits!
[QUOTE=Swebonny;24928499]Good sources please. Prefferably from an American .gov institution please.
Where are all the food?
[editline]11:35PM[/editline]
Conclusion: [b]Stop pulling shit from your ass[/b]
[editline]11:36PM[/editline]
Of course no one will read this post cause you are afraid to admit that US is a country depending on other and that's soon going to fall.
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
"China is the world's top producer of agricultural products by value, with total production of about Y 4,078 billion (US$536 billion), says the WTO report. "Despite rising value of production, the contribution of agriculture to GDP continued to decline, falling from 11.1 percent in 2006 to 10.7 percent in 2008 and 10.6 percent in 2009 because of even more rapid growth in other sectors of the economy."
[editline]11:38PM[/editline]
Exports from China increased by 8.7 percent in 2008, according to WTO. Agricultural products accounted for 2.5 percent of China's total exports. Its largest food export market is Japan.
[editline]11:42PM[/editline]
I can't see how they are getting fed by US, Japan and Australia.[/QUOTE]
why do you hate america?
Being right by using American sources isn't hating America.
[QUOTE=bazyboy;24936140]why do you hate america?[/QUOTE]
Since when does stating facts = hate america??
why cant people just accept the fact that america rules? seriously, every empire has ruled over the world. now it's american's turn. deal with it cause we are here to stay.
[QUOTE=bazyboy;24939816]deal with it cause we are here to stay.[/QUOTE]
China is next most likely. deal with it
[QUOTE=bazyboy;24936140]why do you hate america?[/QUOTE]
He's proving you wrong and you automatically assume he hates america? You're an idiot.
[editline]04:38PM[/editline]
[QUOTE=bazyboy;24939816]why cant people just accept the fact that america rules? seriously, every empire has ruled over the world. now it's american's turn. deal with it cause we are here to stay.[/QUOTE]
And no, you're not ruling over the world.
[QUOTE=Zezibesh;24940082]China is next most likely. deal with it[/QUOTE]
There's only one way great empires deal with their twilight and collapse. And it's threw blood.
China has had us by the economic nutsack for years now.
This is only because our expected standards of living are so high. We have the power to produce much more than China, however there's no reason to waste and average American with four years of high school and two years of college under his/her belt in a fucking sweat shop. I would also point out that China can't support industrial growth without American help. Who do you think makes all the machinery that occupies all those Chinese factories? Obviously a trade war would also deal a critical blow to the US economy, however, China would fare just as badly if not worse.
[editline]12:25PM[/editline]
[QUOTE=Swebonny;24928499]Good sources please. Prefferably from an American .gov institution please.
[editline]11:29PM[/editline]
Why are you assuming USA is the only country in the world? Are you that narrow minded?
[editline]11:31PM[/editline]
China Exports to U.S.
Of the $287.8 billion in American imports from China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Computer accessories, peripherals and parts …US$28.9 billion (10.1% of China to U.S. exports, up 12.4% from 2005)
Miscellaneous household goods (e.g. clocks) … $26.5 billion (9.2%, up 17.2%)
Toys & sporting goods (e.g. bicycles) … $22.2 billion (7.7%, up 10.2%)
Computers … $17.4 billion (6%, up 20.2%)
Non-cotton household furnishings & clothing … $14.6 billion (5.1%, up 11.3%)
Video equipment (e.g. DVD players) … $14.5 billion (5.0%, up 34.9%)
Household furniture … $13.2 billion (4.6%, up 14.3%)
Footwear ... $10.7 billion (3.7%, up 11.1%)
Cotton household furnishings & clothing … $9.9 billion (3.4%, up 29.6%)
Telecommunications equipment … $8.3 billion (3.0%, up 23.7%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Exports to U.S.
Below are American imports from China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Zinc … US$8.6 million (up 616% from 2005)
Nickel … $25.9 million (up 273%)
Lumber … $74.7 million (up 213%)
Specialized mining & oil processing equipment … $96.6 million (up 188%)
Oil field drilling equipment & platforms … $1.6 billion (up 182%)
China Imports from U.S.
Of the $55.2 billion in American exports to China in 2006, the following product categories had the highest values.
Semi-conductors … US$5.9 billion (10.6% of China from U.S. imports, up 74.7% from 2005)
Civilian aircraft … $5.3 billion (9.6%, up 39.7%)
Soybeans … $2.5 billion (4.6%, up 12.5%)
Plastics …. $2.2 billion (3.9%, up 18.8%)
Raw cotton … $2.1 billion (3.7%, up 47%)
Industrial machines … $1.97 billion (3.6%, up 29%)
Copper … $1.86 billion (3.4%, up 99.7%)
Computer accessories … $1.82 billion (3.3%, up 27.5%)
Aluminum … $1.7 billion (3.1%, up 90.3%)
Steelmaking material … $1.69 billion (3.1%, up 11.9%)
Fastest-Growing Chinese Imports from U.S.
Below are American exports to China in 2006 with the highest percentage sales increases from 2005.
Unmanufactured tobacco … US$61.4 million (up 3127% from 2005)
Corn … $22.6 million (up 2963%)
Oilseeds & food oils … $60.7 million (up 970%)
Precious metals … $305 million (up 205.2%)
Railway transportation equipment … $220 million (up 146%)
[/QUOTE]
Look at the things on these lists. This just proves my earlier point. The US could theoretically convert its industrial infrastructure to manufacture twice as many shoes, shirts, etc. as china.
China, on the other hand, doesn't have the fiscal backing, the industrial capacity, nor the educated populace required to mass produce superconductors, drilling rigs, industrial materials, etc.
Despite what our trade deficit says, they're still 100 years behind us. Loreal cosmetics produces all their products in one plant in Pennsylvania run by three people. Cambell's soup produces all their tomato soup for the entire year over the course of 3 weeks in a plant in New Jersey run by 24 people. If you live in the UK or Germany you can boast similar economic efficiency otherwise keep your baseless opinions about America's inferiority to yourself. :911:
[editline]12:27PM[/editline]
[QUOTE=XIII_GT;24939392]Since when does stating facts = hate america??[/QUOTE]
When you draw incorrect conclusions from said facts, to no other conceivable end.
[QUOTE=Jewsus;24953569]
Look at the things on these lists. This just proves my earlier point. The US could theoretically convert its industrial infrastructure to manufacture twice as many shoes, shirts, etc. as china.
China, on the other hand, doesn't have the fiscal backing, the industrial capacity, nor the educated populace required to mass produce superconductors, drilling rigs, industrial materials, etc.
Despite what our trade deficit says, they're still 100 years behind us. Loreal cosmetics produces all their products in one plant in Pennsylvania run by three people. Cambell's soup produces all their tomato soup for the entire year over the course of 3 weeks in a plant in New Jersey run by 24 people. If you live in the UK or Germany you can boast similar economic efficiency otherwise keep your baseless opinions about America's inferiority to yourself. :911:
[editline]12:27PM[/editline]
When you draw incorrect conclusions from said facts, to no other conceivable end.[/QUOTE]
You got to be kidding me. I wonder who has "baseless opinion", the one that state the cold hard facts or the one that twist them with some "theoretically convert its industrial infrastructure to manufacture". NO that's not the case. What I showed you is how it looks like now, in real life.
Also why you don't assume that China can do the same thing regarding super-conductors and other imported goods, if USA stops to trade with China? China is the biggest exporter in the world. China has other countries to export goods to.
Also, my post was aimed towards Gordy.H's ridiculous claim that Australia, Japan and USA is feeding China. While in the real case, China has the biggest agricultural value of over 500 billion dollars. And exports 2.5 percent of the agriculture products it produce.
I don't find relevancy in bringing some cosmetic maker or soup maker into this.
And no, they aren't [b]one hundred[/b] years behind USA. That's just childish.
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