UK Tory MP Stephen Phillips resigns over 'irreconcilable policy differences' with government

[smurfy]

[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37872899[/url]
[quote]Conservative MP Stephen Phillips has quit over "irreconcilable policy differences" with the government.

The MP, who has held the Lincolnshire seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham since 2010, backed leaving the EU but has accused ministers of ignoring Parliament since the Brexit vote.

He said he was "unable properly to represent the people who elected me".

It comes as Theresa May said she was confident she would win a legal battle over her approach to Brexit talks.[/quote]

[BlackMageMari]

[QUOTE=smurfy;51306912][url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37872899[/url][/QUOTE]

How much of a majority does May have when it comes to voting for Brexit?

[FlashMarsh]

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51307163]How much of a majority does May have when it comes to voting for Brexit?[/QUOTE]

All very theoretical, but:

[IMG]http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/BA5A/production/_90060774_mps_declare_eu_stance_22_06_16_624gr.png[/IMG]

Current MPs:
Conservative: 328
Labour: 231
SNP: 54
DUP: 8
Liberal Democrat: 8
Independent: 4
Sinn Féin: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3
SDLP: 3
UUP: 2
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
UKIP: 1
Vacant: 2
Total number of seats: 650
Actual government majority: 14

That's 156 near-guaranteed votes in favour. A Parliamentary majority is 314. Her current majority is 14 (when considering vacant seats, Sinn Fein and a non-voting speaker), but this falls if Sinn Fein vote.

However, the important question is how the remaining MPs will vote. I would guess that all but around 5-10 Conservative MPs would follow a whipped vote to support leaving the EU. I would also guess that all SNP and Lib Dem MPs would oppose the bill. Labour would probably feel unable to whip against the bill, and regardless, it seems unlikely that May wouldn't gain at least 20 or so Labour defectors who are either sympathetic to Brexit, concerned about undermining the referendum, or concerned about UKIP pressures in the constituency. As such, I find it extremely likely (over 90%, if you make me put a number on it) the bill would pass. Also I probably calculated this wrong but whatever.