UK General Election Day and Results: 'Parliament is Well Hung.' - Polidicks

[IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/f5e0a7f5a891b9e705ba7def0c89860a.png[/IMG] [B][HIGHLIGHT]HUNG PARLIAMENT HAS HAPPENED[/B][/HIGHLIGHT] [highlight]\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\//////////////////////////////[/highlight] [highlight]Join us on Discord:[/highlight] [url]https://discord.gg/hsNkhug[/url] [highlight]//////////////////////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\[/highlight] [B][highlight]LIVE UPDATES:[/highlight][/B] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40171454[/url] [B]Tories set to be largest party; forming coalition with DUP.[/B] [quote]Theresa May has said she will put together a government with the support of the Democratic Unionists that can provide "certainty" for the future. Speaking after visiting Buckingham Palace, she said only her party had the "legitimacy" to govern, despite falling eight seats short of a majority. Later, she said she "obviously wanted a different result" and was "sorry" for colleagues who lost their seats. But Labour said they were the "real winners". The Lib Dems said Mrs May should be "ashamed" of carrying on. The Tories needed 326 seats to win another majority but, with 649 out of the 650 seats declared, they fell short and must rely on the DUP to continue to rule. [/quote] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40219030[/url]

The Conservatives should just stop with these snap votes because they just keep biting themselves in the ass.

I am not counting my chickens, I'd loved to get hyped up for this but I am getting a sinking feeling that the day after the votes are cast the Tories are still going to be in charge.

Difficult to see how May could stay on as leader if there was a hung parliament, considering she was supposed to win in a historic landslide that would herald at least ten years of Conservative dominance I'll believe the hung parliament when I see it though

While I'd be happy to see the Tories fuck off, I don't believe this too much. But it's something to keep an eye on over the next week. Still a massive fuck-up for May whichever way you cut it. Literally everyone thinks this was a crap idea by this point.

[QUOTE=Jcorp;52297477]While I'd be happy to see the Tories fuck off, I don't believe this too much. But it's something to keep an eye on over the next week. Still a massive fuck-up for May whichever way you cut it. Literally everyone thinks this was a crap idea by this point.[/QUOTE] We all stand to benefit from Miss May's misfortune

The Yougov prediction is completely out of touch with reality and pretty much every other pollster or prediction. For Example It fails to take into account that in many seats Ukip are either not standing, in which case there will be a larger than usual swing to the Conservatives. [URL="http://elections.newstatesman.com/constituency-forecasts/"] The Newstatesman's forecast shows the Tories on 359 Seats and Labour on 209[/URL] [URL="https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=²¶&RLId=²²&PId=±´ºµ´&UId=´¹¹¹¼&RpId=25"] Lord Ashcroft's forecast shows the Tories on 396 and Labour on 180[/URL] Meanwhile other pollsters which show a large Tory lead are taking into account differential turnout, I.e the unlikelihood of younger, more labour inclined voters not turning out.

This is like shooting someone in the shoulder and they fall over, and then you go up to them to send some lead to their head but suddenly they stab you in the kneecap with a pen.

[QUOTE=The mouse;52297512]The Yougov prediction is completely out of touch with reality and pretty much every other pollster or prediction. For Example It fails to take into account that in many seats Ukip are either not standing, in which case there will be a larger than usual swing to the Conservatives. [URL="http://elections.newstatesman.com/constituency-forecasts/"] The Newstatesman's forecast shows the Tories on 359 Seats and Labour on 209[/URL] [URL="https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=²¶&RLId=²²&PId=±´ºµ´&UId=´¹¹¹¼&RpId=25"] Lord Ashcroft's forecast shows the Tories on 396 and Labour on 180[/URL] Meanwhile other pollsters which show a large Tory lead are taking into account differential turnout, I.e the unlikelihood of younger, more labour inclined voters not turning out.[/QUOTE] It's why polls are shit. But it's also nice to see a swing to labour no matter if it's true or not. I remain cautiously optimistic.

[QUOTE=Shadow801;52297559]It's why polls are shit. But it's also nice to see a swing to labour no matter if it's true or not. I remain cautiously optimistic.[/QUOTE] Polls are shit? Polls are an extremely useful and mostly quite accurate method of determining public opinion.

[QUOTE=Mr Kotov;52297447]The Conservatives should just stop with these snap votes because they just keep biting themselves in the ass.[/QUOTE] How many "snap votes" do you think have occurred?

[QUOTE=Stopper;52297573]Polls are shit? Polls are an extremely useful and mostly quite accurate method of determining public opinion.[/QUOTE] How can you say that when we have two polls saying completely different things here? The most they are telling us is that Labour isn't doing as well as the Conservatives, but not by how much. They could be in the running to get 180, 209 or almost as much as the tories. Which is it?

[QUOTE=Shadow801;52297618]How can you say that when we have two polls saying completely different things here? The most they are telling us is that Labour isn't doing as well as the Conservatives, but not by how much. They could be in the running to get 180, 209 or almost as much as the tories. Which is it?[/QUOTE] "which is it" would be an aggregate meta-analysis of polls weighted based on methodology (such as individual weighting to counter-act online or phone-based polling, and accounting for voter turnout), bias, and accounting for herding. [editline]31st May 2017[/editline] And YouGov has a "B" from 538, and their poll does proper weighting and whatnot. The weighting and sample size and everything checks out okay, it isn't some random poll. (YouGov also has a +1.6% average bias towards democrat, the liberal party in the US, so it's possible this poll is slightly skewed as such also.) [T]http://puu.sh/w76ei/7c58af510c.png[/T] As to your question, there's an election tracker for yougov polls only. However, these are infamously much less accurate than even polling, which already has a +/- margin of error. [url]https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/[/url] Doing further research, YouGov does have significant bias, and the history of their polling indicates such (most likely, according to the atlantic, due to their polling model being based on smaller geographical areas); however, regardless of YouGov being around 3-6 percentage points off in favor of labour, the trend is very, very much towards a labour surge and it continues to narrow. [T]http://puu.sh/w76Kj/c76e313748.png[/T] [T]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png[/T] [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017[/url]

A surprise Labour victory would actually make me laugh so much since it would be the biggest backfire for the Conservatives

I half wonder if she'll just be all 'LOLJK We're not having an election after all'. Can she even do that with a non-scheduled election she called early?

Nah that ship has sailed and we're in the lifeboats as we watch HMS Strong and Stable career towards the waterfall.

[QUOTE=Morbo!!!;52297500]We all stand to benefit from Miss May's misfortune[/QUOTE] I'll die laughing if she ends up losing the premiership because she was so cocky to call for a snap election while being unable to either walk the walk or talk the talk. Hers would be the second shortest tenure in modern British history.

how shit do you have to be to have one of the biggest leads at the start of a campaign and massive public support, only to fuck it all up and squander literally every advantage that you have given to you on a silver platter?

Im getting a little excited at the prospect of a Corbyn government but we gotta factor in the silent voter

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52298883]how shit do you have to be to have one of the biggest leads at the start of a campaign and massive public support, only to fuck it all up and squander literally every advantage that you have given to you on a silver platter?[/QUOTE] Ask the US Democrats.

Yea no way this'll happen unfortunately. The last yougov poll says a lot, anyone pro brexit will probably vote Conservative. Shame the trust in Labours NHS policies doesn't override that.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBN9cMeXUAAyrN-.jpg[/img] Theresa May and Her Team™ have all the answers.

[QUOTE=Grizz;52299094][img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBN9cMeXUAAyrN-.jpg[/img] Theresa May and Her Team™ have all the answers.[/QUOTE] I'm very clear that May realises she made a boo boo

[QUOTE=Grizz;52299094][img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBN9cMeXUAAyrN-.jpg[/img] Theresa May and Her Team™ have all the answers.[/QUOTE] She literally said nothing except, this thing is good, everything is good

[QUOTE=Shadow801;52299100]She literally said nothing except, this thing is good, everything is good[/QUOTE] That's nothing new for Tory doctrine though:[video]https://youtube.com/watch?v=qewb5K5XOms[/video]

them losing a lot of votes could hurt them even if it doesn't mean losing seats overall a safe seat being turned into a contested one is still a headache to deal with (having to mobilise resources to rescue it) - something you took for granted in previous elections is no longer so and the sitting MP might feel more inclined to work hard if their re-election is in serious doubt

YouGov is, without a doubt, finished in the UK if we see a repeat of 2015 - which is sadly likely. [media]https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870246144798068736[/media] New Wales poll due later.

[QUOTE=Grizz;52299212]YouGov is, without a doubt, finished in the UK if we see a repeat of 2015 - which is sadly likely. [media]https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870246144798068736[/media] New Wales poll due later.[/QUOTE] That IS just for London though, and London is well-known as a Labour hotspot.

[QUOTE=MissZoey;52299225]That IS just for London though, and London is well-known as a Labour hotspot.[/QUOTE] It's a trend occurring across the country though. Labour's core is returning.

regardless of what happens, the Conservative party as we know it is pretty fucked. i wouldnt be surprised if they vote No Confidence over May if she loses seats.