Jupiter Impact Raises Likelihood of Future Asteroid Strikes - Polidicks

[QUOTE]Tuesday, May 18, 2010 The strike on Jupiter last year raises the likelihood of future impacts by an order of magnitude, says a new study. But what does it mean for the Earth? [IMG]http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/41976/Jovian-impact.jpg[/IMG] Last July, an amateur astronomer noticed that a mysterious dark bruise about the size of the Earth had suddenly appeared on the surface of Jupiter. Within hours, amateurs and professionals alike were training their instruments on the great planet to work out what had happened. The consensus was that Jupiter had been hit by a comet or asteroid. But the surprise was that it had happened so soon after the Shoemaker-Levy comet strike observed in 1994. The worry was that this strike must have important implications for the likelihood of future impacts. Today, Agustin Sánchez-Lavega from the University of the Basque Country in Bilbao and pals, publish their analysis of the impact and how it changes the probabilities of future impacts. They say the impactor was probably an icy object about 1 kilometre in diameter which came either from a group of main belt asteroids called Hilda asteroids or from a group of comets called the Jupiter Family. Estimating the likelihood of such impacts is hard for a gas giant like Jupiter because the events leave no long-lasting scars on the surface. Jupiter's bruise has already faded away. So astronomers have to rely on historical records. Before last year's impact, astronomers knew only of the Shoemaker-Levy impact and a possible impact observed by the Italian astronomer Giovanni Cassini in 1640. Together with other evidence such as crater counts on Jupiter's large moons and various theoretical calculations, astronomers guessed that Jupiter was liable to a strike perhaps as rarely as once in every 350 years. Sánchez-Lavega and co say that last year's strike significantly changes these numbers. Seeing two strikes in 15 years means that that Jupiter may be liable to be hit as often as once a decade. The reason we haven't seen impacts before is simple: digital cameras and image processing techniques have only become easily available to amateurs in the last ten years. (Before that, even professionals often had to rely on hand drawn pictures of the planets.) What Sánchez-Lavega and co do not address are the implications for the likelihood of Earth impacts, which is strange given the huge importance and public interest in such an event. The Shoemaker-Levy impact on Jupiter changed the way astronomers think about possible impacts and generated huge interest. Clearly Jupiter is at greater threat of future impacts than Earth: it is bigger and more massive by far and so is bound to attract more hits. But it can also send bodies our way. The current thinking is that a 1-kilometer object ought to hit Earth every 500,000 years or so. Needless to say, such an event would change our civilisation beyond recognition. If last year's impact on Jupiter increased the probability of another strike by an order of magnitude, by how much does it increases the probability of a strike on Earth? The public deserves an answer to this question and the fact that this team are silent on the matter is worrying. Let's hope Sánchez-Lavega and his colleagues are working on an answer as a matter of urgency. Ref: [URL=http://arxiv.org/abs/1005.2312]arxiv.org/abs/1005.2312[/URL]: The Impact Of A Large Object With Jupiter In July 2009 [/QUOTE] Source: [url]http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25191/[/url]

[quote]1-kilometer object ought to hit Earth every 500,000 years[/quote] What, no. If that were true nothing would ever evolve to any sort of complex level.

[QUOTE=Occlusion;22043140]What, no. If that were true nothing would ever evolve to any sort of complex level.[/QUOTE] Unless it kept landing in the sea. Or became much smaller in the atmosphere.

a 1-kilometer rock would hardly kill everything on the world. It could wipe out a big city though.

How can they say an object would hit the earth every X amount of years. It's not like it's a constant value. It's dynamic. It changes entirely depending so many variables that it's impossible to say even on average when the next one will hit.

[QUOTE=Jurikuer;22043359]How can they say an object would hit the earth every X amount of years. It's not like it's a constant value. It's dynamic. It changes entirely depending so many variables that it's impossible to say even on average when the next one will hit.[/QUOTE] It's called probability

[QUOTE=Jurikuer;22043359]How can they say an object would hit the earth every X amount of years. It's not like it's a constant value. It's dynamic. It changes entirely depending so many variables that it's impossible to say even on average when the next one will hit.[/QUOTE] The average is not the final word, it's only part of a probability distribution i.e. there's a certain probability that an asteroid will hit every 500,000 years, just like there's a certain probability that it will hit every 100,000 or 900,000 years. Ninja'd tl;dr: lern2statistics

To put that into some sort of context. A theoretical weapon that fires 5m diameter 20m long tungsten spikes impacting at a speed of 700mph would create a blast radius of about 5 miles. the asteroid believed to wipe out the dinosaurs was about 1-1.5 miles wide. so if a asteroid of 1KM hit us say in Europe or the north Atlantic it could eliminate around 40% of the world population with just its blast radius. If, like the asteroid that kill the dinosaurs it produces huge amounts of ash and dust the chances of humanity surviving for more than a few years would be very slim indeed.

500.000 years!!?!? [B]NOOOOO![/B]

jupiter just got stupider :xd: anyways i dont think we have anything to worry about, though this may freak out the 2012ers

I don't understand the point of this.. so what jupiter gets hit more often than we thought.. hasn't bothered us before.

[quote]1-kilometer object ought to hit Earth every 500,000 years[/quote] Wasn't the last impact 63 million years ago and wiped the dinosaurs out? I'm sure we would have found tons of craters by now if we would get hit that often.

[QUOTE=Occlusion;22043140]What, no. If that were true nothing would ever evolve to any sort of complex level.[/QUOTE] Biological organisms have a tendency to survive damn near anything, for example Pyrobolus Fumarii. Archaea bacteria that's optimum operation requires a temperature of 106 C and highly acidic surroundings. Bitch can survive an hours auto claving at at least 121 C :v: Don't write off that life is some fragile thing, cause it really isn't.

[img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Meteor.jpg[/img] Caused by 50m object And there's still 30+ Craters at 20km in diameter and more, The one I posted here is just over 1km

[QUOTE=Robber;22043539]Wasn't the last impact 63 million years ago and wiped the dinosaurs out? I'm sure we would have found tons of craters by now if we would get hit that often.[/QUOTE] Bullshit. Tons of impacts happen every year. Most asteroids are harmless. A rock 1km across wouldn't really do that much damage to the global environment. Firstly consider 70% of the earth is covered in water. Secondly, take into account the fact that asteroids burn up in the atmosphere and erosion also takes place.

[QUOTE]a mysterious dark bruise about the size of the Earth had suddenly appeared on the surface of Jupiter[/QUOTE] That doesn't mean the comet was the size of Earth, does it?

[QUOTE=Still 09;22044544]That doesn't mean the comet was the size of Earth, does it?[/QUOTE] No it means it was a helluva lot smaller. Wow google chrome recognises Helluva as an actual word... :what:

If it is going to hit in 500,000 years then I am sure we will have technology to develop counter measures for such things. I mean look how much we have advanced in the last 70 years, think about what we will have in [b]500,000![/b] Does not bother me anyway. I am a mortal being with an average lifespan of 70 years so yeah.

We're all going to die :ohdear:

[QUOTE=Robber;22043539]Wasn't the last impact 63 million years ago and wiped the dinosaurs out? I'm sure we would have found tons of craters by now if we would get hit that often.[/QUOTE] I had a nice chuckle at this

We could use another mass extinction, a fresh start for Earth. These "Human" things are really fouling the place up.

Yea we should wipe out humans and help our fellow Lions

Do you guys understand the [b]impact[/b] of this?