Predicting Massive earthquake to hit Japan in 4 years.
31 replies, posted
[IMG]http://www.alcon.com/en/img/alcon-locations/maps_eastasia_japan_t.gif[/IMG]
[QUOTE]
For a country still on edge nearly a year after the giant March 11 Tohoku earthquake, Japanese scientists Monday issued a jarring forecast: Tokyo will likely face its own large temblor within the next four years.
Researchers at Tokyo University’s Earthquake Research Institute said there’s a 70% probability the long-feared “big one” will hit the southern Kanto region, which includes Tokyo’s neon-lit jungle, by 2016. It’s an ominous consequence of last year’s game-changing magnitude 9.0 earthquake, the most powerful recorded to hit Japan.
The government agency studying seismic activity has long said the odds of a mag-7-plus quake hitting Tokyo were 70% over 30 years. But Tokyo University researchers now say that the tireless bursts of quakes in the months since March 11 are a mathematical omen signaling a strong quake will occur far sooner than later. University researchers now say the odds of Tokyo or outlying suburban areas getting hit with such a powerful quake in 30 years are now 98%.
According to the researchers, a large earthquake strikes in proportion to the number of smaller shakes — measuring about magnitude-3 to 5 — that break out in the region. In other words, the more small tremors there are, the greater the probability a devastating one will hit.
Based on observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Tokyo University researchers said there has been a more-than-five-fold jump in the number of earthquakes measuring magnitude 6 or below in the Tokyo area since March 11. In all, there have been 577 earthquakes registering a magnitude-5 or above in Japan from March 11 to the end of 2011, about four times the average annual amount logged between 1996-2005, according to the JMA.
“The balance has changed since March 11,” Shinichi Sakai, a research associate at the Earthquake Research Institute, told JRT. Mr. Sakai said the March 11 quake jerked the fault lines underground in a way that has changed the coastal landscape as well as the sea bed below. It also mounted pressure on nearby sea floors like those beneath Hokkaido and the Kanto region. If the rate of smaller earthquakes persist, it is likely Tokyo will see a big one strike at its doorstep in the near future.
“It’s the same as when one person in a line of people holding hands falls then those around him are likely to get pulled down too,” said Mr. Sakai. “The Kanto region is similarly being affected by the March 11 earthquake.”
Mr. Sakai said while pinpointing the exact location of where the pending temblor will take place is impossible, researchers will attempt to narrow down field of possibilities. He said they will also revise various scenarios of what would occur given the new time frame.
The latest forecast has grabbed the attention local residents, with the term “within four years” trending on Twitter since early Monday. Some users on the microblogging site tweeted that while the threat of the big one hovered in the back of their minds, the new calculation has made them more aware of the need to make emergency preparations. By the afternoon, Japan’s major dailies had published the news prominently on their websites.
The last big quake to hit Tokyo was the Great Kanto earthquake, a magnitude-7.9 jolt that struck on Sept. 1, 1923. About 105,0000 were killed in the Tokyo metropolitan area, many of which were caused by crumbling houses and fires that quickly engulfed the city. Officials say stricter building codes and new technologies developed over the years would curb significantly the toll
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[URL="http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/01/23/big-tokyo-quake-forecast-by-2016/"]http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/01/23/big-tokyo-quake-forecast-by-2016/[/URL]
God seems to hate anime a lot.
Well there goes the housing market.
[QUOTE=AceOfDivine;34355933]God seems to hate anime a lot.[/QUOTE]
Japan has earthquakes every 6 months. Seriously-
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan[/url]
Look at this shit.
Why Japan? They make good candy.
[QUOTE=Glorbo;34355952]Japan has earthquakes every 6 months. Seriously-
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan[/url]
Look at this shit.[/QUOTE]
[b]Massive[/b] Earthquake =/= Earthquake
[QUOTE=zzaacckk;34355965][b]Massive[/b] Earthquake =/= Earthquake[/QUOTE]
Well the small earthquakes aren't that significant are they?
There's probably an earthquake going on where you live right now. You just don't notice it.
I hope my friends there will be ok.
Modern Japanese cities are build with earthquakes in mind, so I bet it won't be such a disaster as the one in 1923. My dad happened to be on a bussiness trip to Japan last year during the quake. He said the locals were hardly fazed by the quake. It's a common occurrence.
Tsunamis on the other hand...
Japan's fucked.
Tokyo residents have been preparing for this for decades. I hope they're ready.
Also, hopefully it won't cause a similar tsunami to the Tohoku one but in the Kanto area, that would be truly disastrous.
[QUOTE=Clavus;34356009]My dad happened to be on a bussiness trip to Japan last year during the quake. He said the locals were hardly fazed by the quake. It's a common occurrence.[/QUOTE]
A quake of that magnitude is by no means a common occurence, but they were relatively ready for it anyway.
Japan totally isn't a country which deserves such things.
[QUOTE=pawelte1;34356105]Japan totally isn't a country which deserves such things.[/QUOTE]
No country "deserves" a disaster such as a earthquake.
Oh no not the Kanto region, all those poor pokemon. :ohdear:
When you set up a country on a part of the Earth where not two, but SEVERAL tectonic plates meet you've GOT to expect this kind of shit to happen on a semi-regular basis. It doesn't really come as any surprise to me.
Poor Japan. As soon as they start recovering they're hit again and again.
[QUOTE=sltungle;34356323]When you set up a country on a part of the Earth where not two, but SEVERAL tectonic plates meet you've GOT to expect this kind of shit to happen on a semi-regular basis. It doesn't really come as any surprise to me.[/QUOTE]
Like anyone knew any of this when they settled.
[QUOTE=barttool;34356536]Like anyone knew any of this when they settled.[/QUOTE]
Of course not, but we know that NOWADAYS, so it's not really news. Japan is earthquake prone - it's common knowledge.
but how in 4 years if 2012????
[QUOTE=sltungle;34356568]Of course not, but we know that NOWADAYS, so it's not really news. Japan is earthquake prone - it's common knowledge.[/QUOTE]
And, to make up for it, Japan has some of the most resilient structures out there. Had it not been for the tsunami, the 9.0 that struck last year would not have done exceptional damage.
[QUOTE=pawelte1;34356105]Japan totally isn't a country which deserves such things.[/QUOTE]
WOw my grandad was in pearl harbour and if he was alive he would smash you in the face with an eagle
[editline]23rd January 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=Rich209;34356164]No country "deserves" a disaster such as a earthquake.[/QUOTE]
ummmmmmm peARL HARBOUR????/???
[QUOTE=Nytol_;34356599]but how in 4 years if 2012????[/QUOTE]
Because the world isn't going to end anytime soon.
[QUOTE=Uber|nooB;34356773]WOw my grandad was in pearl harbour and if he was alive he would smash you in the face with an eagle
[editline]23rd January 2012[/editline]
ummmmmmm peARL HARBOUR????/???[/QUOTE]
You are hopefully referring to the retarded Facebook posts made about the disaster last year, yeah? If not, then prepare for a box fort.
[QUOTE=Clavus;34356009]Modern Japanese cities are build with earthquakes in mind, so I bet it won't be such a disaster as the one in 1923. My dad happened to be on a bussiness trip to Japan last year during the quake. He said the locals were hardly fazed by the quake. It's a common occurrence.
Tsunamis on the other hand...[/QUOTE]
Yep, I was at Carrefour, everyone didn't even give a shit, the lights were shaking. They continued buying their shit
while this may sound dumb to some, is there any way to.. well stop this from happening?
i know people round the world work on fancy new buildings that can withstand minor quakes but is there stuff they can do to prevent it (most damage isn't from the huge buildings anyway it's from all the little residential housing?
just out of curiosity.
I think the US makes the earthquake with a machine to slow down Japanese programme of exporting indoctrination media
3rd Cold war
[QUOTE=_Maverick_;34356942]while this may sound dumb to some, is there any way to.. well stop this from happening?
i know people round the world work on fancy new buildings that can withstand minor quakes but is there stuff they can do to prevent it (most damage isn't from the huge buildings anyway it's from all the little residential housing?
just out of curiosity.[/QUOTE]
As long as the tectonic plates keep moving, we'll keep having earthquakes; simple as that. There is literally nothing we can do to stop them; all we can do is build stronger buildings.
[QUOTE=hegrec;34355942]Well there goes the housing market.[/QUOTE]
Not really. Most houses in Japan are worthless after a couple years. They don't sell their plastic prefab houses.
Only proper buildings are effected.
[QUOTE=Uber|nooB;34356773]
ummmmmmm peARL HARBOUR????/???[/QUOTE]
Fat Man and Little Boy were way worse than Pearl Harbor.
Japan's done a fairly good job so far making buildings resilient to the elements. It's usually things like tsunamis that cause the major damage.
It's going to suck if there is a major one in Tokyo, though. I'd rather not see things like Tokyo Tower fall.
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