French election: Marine Le Pen could still become France's next president, new analysis finds - Polidicks

[quote]Far right leader Marine Le Pen could still win the French Presidential election, even though her opponent Emmanuel Macron appears to be well ahead in opinion polls, according to a new mathematical analysis. French physicist Serge Galam has published a fourteen-page paper which claims the Front National Leader could still win mathematically. His theory of “differentiated abstention” hinges on variation in voter turnout. Mr Macron was in first place after the first round of voting on Sunday, receiving 24 per cent of the vote to Le Pen’s 21.3 per cent - a difference in real terms of around 1 million votes. Candidates and their parties from across the political spectrum who lost out in the first round, including Francois Hollande’s Socialist party and the right wing Les Republicains, have called on their support base to back Mr Macron. It is widely believed that the former investment banker will win because he should attract a broader coalition of voters than the far-right Le Pen. However, Mr Galam has said that Ms Le Pen could win by 50.07 percent, if turnout for the two camps varies widely from pollsters’ estimates. In the table below, "A turnout x" represents voters who backed Le Pen in the first round, "B turnout y" Macron's votes. 'Actual Ia' and 'Actual Va' show the various configurations of the final vote, depending on how many of these voters turn out on the day. [t]https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2017/04/28/14/table.jpg[/t] "If 90 percent of people who said they would vote for Le Pen go through with it it, and at the same time only 65 percent of people who declared they would vote for Macron actually vote, then it's Marine Le Pen who wins the election with a score of 50.07 percent", the paper claims. Mr Galam said his theory “makes the likelihood that Marine Le Pen could be elected shift from impossible to improbable”[/quote] [url]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-marine-le-pen-win-next-france-president-mathematical-analysis-physicist-serge-galam-a7707931.html[/url] [url]https://www.thelocal.fr/20170427/heres-how-le-pen-can-mathematically-still-beat-macron[/url]

Hopefully not. I way rather see this Macaroon guy in power, even though I know little about him, than Le Pen. I could easily see Le Pen being even worse for France than Trump is here in the States.

Didn't she step down? Won't it just be her party that can win?

[Quote]"If 90 percent of people who said they would vote for Le Pen go through with it it, and at the same time only 65 percent of people who declared they would vote for Macron actually vote, then it's Marine Le Pen who wins the election with a score of 50.07 percent", the paper claims.[/quote] "Here's how [del]Bernie[/del] Le Pen can still win."

[quote]"If 90 percent of people who said they would vote for Le Pen go through with it it, and at the same time only 65 percent of people who declared they would vote for Macron actually vote, then it's Marine Le Pen who wins the election with a score of 50.07 percent"[/quote] wow! if every single person who intends to vote for Macron has an aneurysm on the way to the voting booth, Le Pen can pull through!

[QUOTE=Zenreon117;52161854]Didn't she step down? Won't it just be her party that can win?[/QUOTE] No. She's still running, she just abandoned her duties to focus on her campaign.

[QUOTE=Zenreon117;52161854]Didn't she step down? Won't it just be her party that can win?[/QUOTE] You don't represent a party in presidential elections, you represent yourself.

A cursory glance shows nothing wrong with the formula, and it's actually pretty similar to how Trump won despite the polls showing him having a slightly lower chance of winning, but the numbers are skewed far more against le Pen than they were against Trump.

[QUOTE=Raidyr;52162435]A cursory glance shows nothing wrong with the formula, and it's actually pretty similar to how Trump won despite the polls showing him having a slightly lower chance of winning, but the numbers are skewed far more against le Pen than they were against Trump.[/QUOTE] difference, these aren't polls they're actual votes and presumably two weeks won't have an impact on one's willingness to vote plus theres not enough time for the massive amount of smear that we have in our system

Thank you Melenchon for having France's second dumbest supporters.

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52163095]Thank you Melenchon for having France's second dumbest supporters.[/QUOTE] Muslims, Jews, immigrants, pro EU voters, centrists? Who?

[QUOTE=DogGunn;52163104]Muslims, Jews, immigrants, pro EU voters, centrists? Who?[/QUOTE] A lot of them hate Macron as much as Le Pen and won't vote in the second round. This is $hillary all over again. And why would centrists vote for him?

What the are chances Le Pen and her party is the controlled opposition or part of a pied piper strategy? What if she is the puppet of other players to make crony capitalists and less charismatic candidates more palatable? What if France is pulling the same shit Clinton did?

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52163126]A lot of them hate Macron as much as Le Pen and won't vote in the second round. This is $hillary all over again. And why would centrists vote for him?[/QUOTE] No, you missed my question. Who are the dumb voters?

Even if Le Pen doesn't get in this time around, she will probably get an even higher vote in 2022.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;52163674]Even if Le Pen doesn't get in this time around, she will probably get an even higher vote in 2022.[/QUOTE] Yeah, the amount of racists in politics and in the voting population seems to be increasing fast, so she's got a chance then.

[QUOTE=EcksDee;52163678]Yeah, the amount of racists in politics and in the voting population seems to be increasing fast, so she's got a chance then.[/QUOTE] Well no, its more along the lines that we won't see any major EU change, so the situation in France will just deteriorate.

[QUOTE=DogGunn;52163655]No, you missed my question. Who are the dumb voters?[/QUOTE] Mostly just the ones who won't vote during the second round because he lost.

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52163752]Mostly just the ones who won't vote during the second round because he lost.[/QUOTE] Not "because he lost". Macron thinks our votes should go to him just like that, and he keeps bashing our ideas. While Le Pen is actually trying to get us (not that she'll succeed). But if you want 20% of the voters to vote for you, maybe, I don't know, do your job as a uniting figure? Give us a little something? Again it's not a one turn election, we know exactly how everyone voted on the first turn. If he thinks he doesn't stand a chance against Le Pen and need our votes, we're open to negotiate. But theses are the people that bashed the France Insoumise movement more than the National Front. They are more afraid of us than racist anti-Europe facists, somehow. Theses are the people that told hamon to stay in the race just so we couldn't pass the first turn, because they prefer to run against the FN. How do you react to that? To me they are the ones that are making the FN gain so many voters. I won't play that game.

[QUOTE=NapyDaWise;52163978]Theses are the people that told hamon to stay in the race just so we couldn't pass the first turn, because they prefer to run against the FN. How do you react to that? To me they are the ones that are making the FN gain so many voters. I won't play that game.[/QUOTE] What? They both stayed in the race because they failed to broker a deal. It's as much Mélenchon's fault as it is Hamon's. Pointing at some centrist boogeyman doesn't exonerate them. I've seen "Insoumis" complain about "Hamon voters not voting strategically" and "costing them the race" and in the same breath advocate for abstention in the second round. Fucking hypocrites. Really hope you're not one of those.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;52163711]Well no, its more along the lines that we won't see any major EU change, so the situation in France will just deteriorate.[/QUOTE] so what makes you think all this, Mr. "i have been demonstrated to be wrong about almost all of my EU based opinions almost all of the time"

As Macron and Le Pen struggle for votes they can't quite get, facists and champagne socialists come out of the woodwork with the intent to fragment melenchon's constituency in the legislative election. The socialist party is as shambles. Nicolas Dupont Aignan has endorsed Marine Le Pen in turn two, possibly alienating a chunk of his constituency in Yerre. There is no downside to playing the waiting game, poll's closed until next sunday anyways.

if she wins somehow I'm gonna have a heart attack for sure my heart can only take so many upsets in such a short timespan

You can always prove mathematically that someone [I]could[/I] win, the question is the likelihood of that happening. And in his own words: [QUOTE]Mr Galam said his theory “makes the likelihood that Marine Le Pen could be elected shift from impossible to improbable”[/QUOTE] It's basically "If enough people vote for the other person, they win!" - it's neither novel, nor very insightful. It's not impossible that Le Pen wins, but it is very improbable. While Le Pen may have higher than expected turnout, I feel like this theory than upset candidates always have a higher pull than the "status quo" is flawed - more people voted for Hillary, for example, than Trump. I especially don't think you'll see 40 percent higher turnout among likely Le Pen voters; perhaps higher than for Macron, but not to that degree.

[QUOTE=_Axel;52164003]What? They both stayed in the race because they failed to broker a deal. It's as much Mélenchon's fault as it is Hamon's. Pointing at some centrist boogeyman doesn't exonerate them. I've seen "Insoumis" complain about "Hamon voters not voting strategically" and "costing them the race" and in the same breath advocate for abstention in the second round. Fucking hypocrites. Really hope you're not one of those.[/QUOTE] Oh no that's not what I'm saying. In a perfect voting system Hamon's 6% would have representation and I'd be happy about it. What I'm saying, is that Hamon got played hard, backstabbed from everywhere, while everybody in the PS went full Macron. 6% is not a result that one of the biggest party should have had. People were angry with Hollande, and didn't vote Hamon because of that. But Hollande supports Macron. However, I feel Hamon got told by the PS to stay in the race so they could get their money back, not by pure conviction. Hamon even endorsed Melenchon if he got past the 1st turn. I think I just feel bad for the guy, he was turned into ridicule, got 6% out of a party that was used to get 20/30%, when he actually sounded way better than his predecessors. So yeah I'm more mad at Macron's movement stealing Hamon's voters over Hollande's results, while Hollande endorsed Macron, and basically did a lite version of Macron's "program" during his 5 years in the office. All of that played right into Macron and Le Pen's hands. To get back to the subject, this "analysis" proves nothing. Also, I'm sure there were a lot of Le Pen voters in the first turn that just voted for her to make a point, as it is the case with every elections over here.

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52163095]Thank you Melenchon for having France's second dumbest supporters.[/QUOTE] where is the dumb rating

[QUOTE=_Axel;52161874]"Here's how [del]Bernie[/del] Le Pen can still win."[/QUOTE] To be fair a low voter turnout for normal sensible option and a high voter turnout for the angry protest option is a very reasonable thing to expect.

[QUOTE=DogGunn;52163655]No, you missed my question. Who are the dumb voters?[/QUOTE] You can be dumb and vote for any candidate. Justification is an important thing and is not always attached to whether a candidate himself is actually good or bad. I hated a lot of Bernie voters because their reasons often boiled down to "i want free shit my dude" as an example, and I say that as someone who voted Bernie.

[QUOTE=Rossy167;52164254]To be fair a low voter turnout for normal sensible option and a high voter turnout for the angry protest option is a very reasonable thing to expect.[/QUOTE] So is high voter turnout against the FN when you look at the 2002 election.

To be honest at this point I don't really give a fuck about Macron's policies, he's the guy who's facing Le Pen so he gets my vote. If you decide to purposefully ignore the second round of the elections because your first choice didn't get through then you're a prissy crybaby bitch for ignoring the fucking incredible gift that is the second round in the French voting system.