• France's Le Pen says protectionism can spur GDP growth to 2.5 percent by 2021
    26 replies, posted
[quote]Far-right National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who is campaigning on a platform of economic nationalism, says France's GDP growth would accelerate to 2.5 percent toward the end of her first term if she wins the upcoming election. Le Pen wants to drop the euro currency, a move that would throw the future of the European single currency into doubt, and vows to re-negotiate France's relationship with the European Union, promising a referendum on EU membership if those talks fail. In an interview with newspaper Ouest-France, Le Pen described her 2.5 percent growth forecast by 2021 as "extremely reasonable". "From the moment I implement intelligent protectionism that will fight against unfair international competition, it will turn the economy around," Le Pen was quoted as saying, adding that growth will be accompanied by an increase in purchasing power. France's economy, the second biggest in the euro zone, has not expanded at that rate since 2004. Hobbled by heavy regulation and high unemployment, French GDP growth in 2016 was an anemic 1.1 percent and is predicted to reach 1.5 percent this year.[/quote] populists making spurious promises OwO what's this? although didn't trump promise 7% or something. [URL]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-lepen-idUSKBN17F2O8[/URL]
If Trump promised 7% I will fucking die laughing, I didn't hear that one. That's the kind of statement that would leave even the most senile economist snorting.
Protectionism reduces overall economic productivity though. Because, yknow... It's functionally identical to a tax.
[QUOTE=ForgottenKane;52105280]If Trump promised 7% I will fucking die laughing, I didn't hear that one. That's the kind of statement that would leave even the most senile economist snorting.[/QUOTE] Whoops, gave it a google search and the real number he gave was 4%. IIRC 7% was actually the GDP growth he'd need to make his tax cuts/spending increases pay for themselves. 4% is still pretty crazy though
[QUOTE=ForgottenKane;52105280]If Trump promised 7% I will fucking die laughing, I didn't hear that one. That's the kind of statement that would leave even the most senile economist snorting.[/QUOTE] If you know economists, then you'd know that only half of them would do that. They are 50/50 split on most topics in existence.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;52105827]If you know economists, then you'd know that only half of them would do that. They are 50/50 split on most topics in existence.[/QUOTE] just like climate scientists are 50/50 split on climate change, fox news told me so.
Economics isn't always an exact science so you can make up shit by tossing some random statistics together, and get away with it before anyone actually ran the numbers.
[QUOTE=Clavus;52105975]Economics isn't always an exact science so you can make up shit by tossing some random statistics together, and get away with it before anyone actually ran the numbers.[/QUOTE] Not being an "exact science" doesn't mean you can just make shit up. It means you get absolute precision, like in mathematics.
Urgh she's gonna win isn't she.
[QUOTE=Boilrig;52105827]If you know economists, then you'd know that only half of them would do that. They are 50/50 split on most topics in existence.[/QUOTE] They're split on whether large scale government spending in recessions or bailing out bands are good strategies, not on whether pigs are likely to take to the skies in the near future.
[QUOTE=Occlusion;52106037]Urgh she's gonna win isn't she.[/QUOTE] Polls say she'll make second round, but lose pretty handily to Macron. But who knows
[QUOTE=shadow_oap;52106716]Polls say she'll make second round, but lose pretty handily to Macron. But who knows[/QUOTE] Most polls have put her with ~2% between Macron and herself in the 2nd Round. It's very likely that apathetic voters may cause her to get elected. We are pretty much seeing another repeat of the US elections, if that does happen.
[QUOTE=shadow_oap;52106716]Polls say she'll make second round, but lose pretty handily to Macron. But who knows[/QUOTE] [img]http://truthfeed.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-09-at-9.13.24-AM.png[/img] never feel like something is too crazy to happen, because that's when you let it happen
[QUOTE=Boilrig;52105827]If you know economists, then you'd know that only half of them would do that. They are 50/50 split on most topics in existence.[/QUOTE] [citation needed] [url]http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/free-trade[/url] [editline]15th April 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Clavus;52105975]Economics isn't always an exact science so you can make up shit by tossing some random statistics together, and get away with it before anyone actually ran the numbers.[/QUOTE] What the hell? Not true at all. (I mean to the making shit up part) In some instances IT IS an exact science. The more data we have for things happening nowadays, the easier we can prove or disprove economic models. For example in international trade (Check Feenstra for any reference) most models who were held to be true were actually shown to be false in these last decades (90's-00's-10's) thanks to all the data explosion that happene during said timeframe. Nobody will believe you if you toss some random data and get some regressions from it just like that. Your model has to have assumptions grounded on logical arguments that do follow real data from other science or should there be a lack of that, be "sound". The problem is when people listen to economists on subjects they have no idea. For example, did you know that most of the people who deny or oppose action to climate change are economists or businessmen?
[QUOTE=Judas;52106729][img]http://truthfeed.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-09-at-9.13.24-AM.png[/img] never feel like something is too crazy to happen, because that's when you let it happen[/QUOTE] France uses pop vote dont they? Hillary won the pop vote like the national polls predicted. But yes, its healthy to be skeptical especially this far out.
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;52106724]Most polls have put her with ~2% between Macron and herself in the 2nd Round. It's very likely that apathetic voters may cause her to get elected. We are pretty much seeing another repeat of the US elections, if that does happen.[/QUOTE] Which polls?
[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;52107521]Which polls?[/QUOTE] [IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017.png[/IMG] What about this one from Wikipedia?
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;52106724]Most polls have put her with ~2% between Macron and herself in the 2nd Round.[/QUOTE] Never seen any such poll. Source? [QUOTE=ChadMcGoatMan;52107537][IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017.png[/IMG] What about this one from Wikipedia?[/QUOTE] This is for the first round... [QUOTE=Judas;52106729][img]http://truthfeed.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-09-at-9.13.24-AM.png[/img] never feel like something is too crazy to happen, because that's when you let it happen[/QUOTE] France's electoral system is nowhere near the clusterfuck that is the American system, thus more predictable. Not saying polls are always right, but pointing to the US to demonstrate the opposite doesn't really work.
[QUOTE=_Axel;52107690]Never seen any such poll. Source? This is for the first round... France's electoral system is nowhere near the clusterfuck that is the American system, thus more predictable. Not saying polls are always right but pointing to the US to demonstrate the opposite doesn't really work.[/QUOTE] Seems like I was misreading the polls on Wikipedia, my bad. Either way though from what I'm seeing on [URL="http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1"]PresiTrack[/URL], Macron's lead is dropping while she is gaining, and it's worth noting that some have predicted that roughly 1/3rd to 53% will abstain from voting in France, which Macron most certainly be hurting from.
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;52107733]Seems like I was misreading the polls on Wikipedia, my bad. Either way though from what I'm seeing on [URL="http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1"]PresiTrack[/URL], Macron's lead is dropping while she is gaining.[/QUOTE][t]https://i.imgur.com/wiezuzA.jpg[/t] Seems steady to me? Or are you talking about the first turn? Which doesn't really matter unless he gets overtaken by Fillon or Mélenchon. And even then Fillon would have about a 16% lead. The only thing that's unsure is how Mélenchon would perform. [Quote]And it's worth noting that some have predicted that roughly 1/3rd to 53% will abstain from voting in France, which Macron most certainly be hurting from.[/quote] First round or second round abstention? I find it hard to believe that a second round with Lepen would see such high abstention considering how it turned out in 2002.
Why the fuck have you guys allowed anyone affiliated with a party called the [I]National Front [/I]to get anywhere near the office of president? [U][I][B]NATIONAL. FUCKING. FRONT.[/B][/I][/U]​
What's this obsession with economic growth? Surely there's a limit on it, no?
[QUOTE=Smug Bastard;52129393]Why the fuck have you guys allowed anyone affiliated with a party called the [I]National Front [/I]to get anywhere near the office of president? [U][I][B]NATIONAL. FUCKING. FRONT.[/B][/I][/U]​[/QUOTE] [I]Well if we want progress, we have to be tolerant of other people's view points[/I][sp]regardless of whether the view point is tolerant of innocents.[/sp]
what's so important and necessary about achieving 2.5% growth though? france is already a really wealthy country and in her current condition you can't really boost growth without pulling some kind of dirty trick
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;52130369]what's so important and necessary about achieving 2.5% growth though? france is already a really wealthy country and in her current condition you can't really boost growth without pulling some kind of dirty trick[/QUOTE] People like getting told their country will be richer, even if they don't benefit from the growth directly.
It wouldn't kill you to read about how a country's elections work, or what the polls even are and mean before you post tbh
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