Donald Trump is really unpopular with general election voters, and Cruz probably wouldn't win either - Polidicks

[url]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/[/url] [quote]Several recent stories, like this one from the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa, report that influential Republicans have become increasingly resigned to the prospect of Donald Trump as their nominee. One theme in these stories is that the GOP “donor class” seems to have persuaded itself that Trump might not be such a bad general election candidate. On that point, the donor class is probably wrong. It’s hard to say exactly how well (or poorly) Trump might fare as the Republican nominee. Partisanship is strong enough in the U.S. that even some of his most ardent detractors in the GOP would come around to support him were he the Republican candidate. Trump has some cunning political instincts, and might not hesitate to shift back to the center if he won the GOP nomination. A recession or a terror attack later this year could work in his favor. But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy. Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)[/quote] [quote]You could plausibly argue that Ted Cruz would be a worse nominee than Trump despite having better favorability ratings and faring slightly better in general election head-to-heads.3 There’s reasonably clear evidence that voters tend to punish candidates with “extreme” (far right or far left) ideologies, and by statistical measures Cruz would be the most conservative nominee since (and possibly including) Barry Goldwater in 1964. Trump’s ideology is harder to pin down.[/quote]

because people are tired of the republican bullshit they may have good 50 years ago ( well besides pro jim crow law ) but now they just bend over for big companys

Trump is basically the way of the Republicans telling the truth of what they believe but he does it in a such a stupid way that noone actually believes anyone can preach such bullshit and laughs it off rather than realising what pricks the Republicans actually are.

Trump is the demagogue that the republicans have always wanted He says the party line without any bullshit nicities in the way. Why people actually like that, I don't know, but they do. I appreciate brutal honesty, but not pointlessly frank honesty

I'm glad that Cruz doesn't stand a chance. He said that the legalization of gay marriage was the darkest day in US history (worse than 9/11, etc.), and he wanted to violate international law to carpet bomb the Middle East.

[QUOTE=Banhfunbags;49567487]I'm glad that Cruz doesn't stand a chance. He said that the legalization of gay marriage was the darkest day in US history (worse than 9/11, etc.), and he wanted to violate international law to carpet bomb the Middle East.[/QUOTE] It's so shocking to me that Cruz is apparently coming out as a possible contender for the nomination. Cruz is such a pathetic looking person, he just looks weak and wimpy and sad, he sounds like Ned Flanders and he is the overall physical embodiment of disgusting television evangelicals (which is of course why he's gaining support, given that this is America). [editline]20th January 2016[/editline] Plus his politics suck but that's a given. His physical appearance and demeanor though are just repulsive lol.

Well, I'm glad. The guy is a psychopath.

Rubio should be the next bet then. Of course he's conservative but he just seems a little more sane.

[QUOTE=Banhfunbags;49567487]I'm glad that Cruz doesn't stand a chance. He said that the legalization of gay marriage was the darkest day in US history (worse than 9/11, etc.), and he wanted to violate international law to carpet bomb the Middle East.[/QUOTE] IIRC, Cruz changed his mindset of gay marriage, hes against it personally, but thinks it shouldnt be illegal. He tolerates it.

I'm fine with Rubio winning, though I'd really like Rand to get up there.

Is there a better source for this? I was googling the headline but only got links back to the website in the OP The sources they use for this article are [URL]http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster[/URL] (which shows trump ahead of everyone, if not tied) The Gallup poll which is an opinion article on a poll hosted on Gallup's own website [URL]http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188177/trump-image-among-democrats-independents-negative-gop-candidate.aspx[/URL] Which contradict most polls across the country [URL]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html[/URL] You can scroll down and click on any source that the poll numbers are gathered from

[QUOTE=Monkah;49567555]I'm fine with Rubio winning, though I'd really like Rand to get up there.[/QUOTE] i agree that paul would be the best candidate but unfortunately he wont win

[QUOTE=srobins;49567496]It's so shocking to me that Cruz is apparently coming out as a possible contender for the nomination. Cruz is such a pathetic looking person, he just looks weak and wimpy and sad, he sounds like Ned Flanders and he is the overall physical embodiment of disgusting television evangelicals (which is of course why he's gaining support, given that this is America). [editline]20th January 2016[/editline] Plus his politics suck but that's a given. His physical appearance and demeanor though are just repulsive lol.[/QUOTE]He's supposedly a very intelligent person, graduated valedictorian from high school and won top speaker award at two debate championships, too bad his policies are shit and he comes off as a terrible person. He knows how to talk and manipulate people to be on his side, which is scary since he doesn't believe in climate change, doesn't believe in same-sex marriage (but does believe it's up to the states whether or not to decide if it should be legal), opposes net neutrality, favors the death penalty, etc. He's a big advocate for states rights which is probably the only positive thing about him. luckily his chances of winning are pretty slim (HOPEFULLY), at this point it'll probably be down to either Hilliary or Sanders.

[QUOTE=srobins;49567496]It's so shocking to me that Cruz is apparently coming out as a possible contender for the nomination. Cruz is such a pathetic looking person, he just looks weak and wimpy and sad, he sounds like Ned Flanders and he is the overall physical embodiment of disgusting television evangelicals (which is of course why he's gaining support, given that this is America). [editline]20th January 2016[/editline] Plus his politics suck but that's a given. His physical appearance and demeanor though are just repulsive lol.[/QUOTE] Ted Cruz has what doctors call a "punchable face". [QUOTE=cody8295;49567575]i agree that paul would be the best candidate but unfortunately he wont win[/QUOTE] It's a sad time when the most reasonable candidate is no longer in the big dog debates and with no chance of recovering. Personally I would love to see a Sanders v Paul debate.

[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49567561]Is there a better source for this? I was googling the headline but only got links back to the website in the OP The sources they use for this article are [URL]http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster[/URL] (which shows trump ahead of everyone, if not tied) The Gallup poll which is an opinion article on a poll hosted on Gallup's own website [URL]http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188177/trump-image-among-democrats-independents-negative-gop-candidate.aspx[/URL] Which contradict most polls across the country [URL]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html[/URL] You can scroll down and click on any source that the poll numbers are gathered from[/QUOTE] A better source than Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of every state in the 2012 election, 49/50 states in 2008, and every Senate race in both years? No

[QUOTE=smurfy;49567672]A better source than Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of every state in the 2012 election, 49/50 states in 2008, and every Senate race in both years? No[/QUOTE] Maybe this is the year that he'll be wrong

[QUOTE=smurfy;49567672]A better source than Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of every state in the 2012 election, 49/50 states in 2008, and every Senate race in both years? No[/QUOTE] Nate also said that Trump's popularity spree was going to be over months ago. I love Nate and all, but this whole election is just bizarre.

[QUOTE=Kirbunny431;49567707]Nate also said that Trump's popularity spree was going to be over months ago. I love Nate and all, but this whole election is just bizarre.[/QUOTE] He said that it was likely, not certain. He's a statistician, if he says 'there's a 75% chance that this will happen' and it doesn't happen it doesn't mean his predictions are unreliable.

It's a joke. And a bit sad

My father, one of the most right people I know, who has a degree in political science, said that he hopes Trump is elected so that the Republican Party disintegrates and reforms into something new

This is the least likable election ever. All the top tier candidates besides Sanders are disliked. Clinton vs Cruz or Trump would just be a contest of who people hate the least, which is Clinton. If you have to choose a dishonest and slimy politician, at least choose the one who is most effective at it.

WAIT did they run the numbers on doc brown?

[QUOTE=person11;49567759]This is the least likable election ever. All the top tier candidates besides Sanders are disliked. Clinton vs Cruz or Trump would just be a contest of who people hate the least, which is Clinton. If you have to choose a dishonest and slimy politician, at least choose the one who is most effective at it.[/QUOTE] What. Every candidate is "disliked" in some way. How is it possible for Sanders to be the only not "disliked" candidate?

[QUOTE=CatFodder;49567739]He said that it was likely, not certain. He's a statistician, if he says 'there's a 75% chance that this will happen' and it doesn't happen it doesn't mean his predictions are unreliable.[/QUOTE] Fair enough. I completely failed to think about it that way.

[QUOTE=person11;49567759]This is the least likable election ever. All the top tier candidates besides Sanders are disliked. Clinton vs Cruz or Trump would just be a contest of who people hate the least, which is Clinton. If you have to choose a dishonest and slimy politician, at least choose the one who is most effective at it.[/QUOTE] I'm soo glad someone said it. I try to somewhat keep up with politics but this year's election is a huge joke, besides Sanders, who seems the most solid out of everyone. But that's just my two cents.

[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49567561]Is there a better source for this? I was googling the headline but only got links back to the website in the OP The sources they use for this article are [URL]http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster[/URL] (which shows trump ahead of everyone, if not tied) The Gallup poll which is an opinion article on a poll hosted on Gallup's own website [URL]http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188177/trump-image-among-democrats-independents-negative-gop-candidate.aspx[/URL] Which contradict most polls across the country [URL]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html[/URL] You can scroll down and click on any source that the poll numbers are gathered from[/QUOTE] That's because you just read an advertorial, not a news article. See: gamergate, pretty much anything every published by the Mail or Guardian over the last fifteen years.

If Trump wins the nomination, the election was basically handed to a democrat.

[QUOTE=Kirbunny431;49567707]Nate also said that Trump's popularity spree was going to be over months ago. I love Nate and all, but this whole election is just bizarre.[/QUOTE] It's so bizarre that I wouldn't be surprised if Trump just took a bite out of those numbers then used the remains to beat the Universe into submission.

Talked with some guys who were in the the wars in Korea and Vietnam. I was surprised when they all agreed on how much they hate Trump in contrast to my grandparents who generally think Trump is "telling it how it is" and that "he'll stick up for America". I may not have much faith in humanity, but I will still write in Bernie Sanders on the ballot if I have to, just so I can criticize other people for voting for Trump/Hillary.

[QUOTE=LoganIsAwesome;49568141]If Trump wins the nomination, the election was basically handed to a democrat.[/QUOTE] Don't underestimate the stupidity of Trump and Republican only/Sanders/Hilary lost voters. Some would vote for Trump because Sanders/Hilary lost. Hell, there are Republicans who would vote only Republican even if the nominee is hated by them or is an overall bigot that "tells how it is" and "speaks from the heart." Its true that Trump speaks the truth, the problem is that his truth is a bunch of racist/sexist hate speech half the time and the other half is basically stupid shit.