Turkish President Says "Worst Case" Unfolding In Syria - Polidicks

[QUOTE](Reuters) - Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Monday the "worst-case scenarios" were now playing out in Syria and Turkey would do everything necessary to protect itself, as its army fired back for a sixth day after a shell from Syria flew over the border. Gul said the violence in Turkey's southern neighbor, where a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad has evolved into a civil war that threatens to draw in regional powers, could not go on indefinitely and Assad's fall was inevitable. "The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in Syria ... Our government is in constant consultation with the Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately as you see, and it will continue to be done," Gul said. "There will be a change, a transition sooner or later ... It is a must for the international community to take effective action before Syria turns into a bigger wreck and further blood is shed, that is our main wish," he told reporters in Ankara. Turkey's armed forces have bolstered their presence along the 900-km (560-mile) border with Syria in recent days and have been responding in kind to gunfire and shelling spilling across from the south, where Assad's forces have been battling rebels who control swathes of territory. Turkey's Chief of Staff, General Necdet Ozel, travelled to the southern city of Adana to inspect the region patrolled by Turkey's 2nd Army, which protects the border with Syria, the military said on its website. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the escalation of the conflict along the Turkey-Syria border, as well as the impact of the crisis on Lebanon, were "extremely dangerous". "The situation in Syria has dramatically worsened. It is posing serious risks to the stability of Syria's neighbors and the entire region," he told a conference in Strasbourg, France. Ban said U.N. and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi would be heading back to the region this week. MILITARY MOVEMENTS The exchanges with Turkey mark the most serious cross-border violence in Syria's revolt against Assad, which began in March last year with peaceful protests for reform and has evolved into a civil war with sectarian overtones. "From now on, every attack on us will be responded to immediately. Every attack that targets our sovereignty, our security of life and property will find its response," Turkish government spokesman Bulent Arinc said after a cabinet meeting. Parliament last week authorized the deployment of Turkish troops beyond its borders although government officials said the move was meant as a deterrent rather than a "war mandate". "Turkey will decide itself when the situation necessitates acts mentioned in the motion the parliament passed last week. Nobody should think war will follow a parliament approval ... but we are more sensitive about our independence and sovereignty than most countries," Arinc said. Turkey's Dogan news agency said some 25 warplanes had been sent to a military base in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the southeast, and reported military sources as saying this was in connection with Syria and cross-border anti-terror operations. It said a large number of F-16 fighter planes landed at the base on Monday afternoon. Local sources confirmed there was heightened activity at the base but said this was related to operations against Kurdish militant bases in northern Iraq, not Syria. Separately, a convoy of military vehicles, including tanks loaded on trucks, travelled to the town of Akcakale on Monday to be deployed on the border, Dogan reported. Fighting further inside Syria also intensified on Monday. Syrian government forces advanced for the first time in months into the rebel-held Khalidiya district in the besieged central city of Homs. "They have occupied buildings that we were stationed in and we had to evacuate," a rebel fighter told Reuters by Skype. Skirmishes on the Syrian side of the border have been escalating and it is unclear who fired the shells that have crossed into Turkey. Damascus has said it fired into Turkey accidentally, but has failed to live up to pledges made last week, after a Syrian shell killed five civilians in Akcakale, to ensure no more ordnance flies across the border. Turkey launched its latest retaliatory strike on Monday after a mortar bomb fired from Syria landed in countryside in the Turkish province of Hatay some 150-200 m (yards) inside the district of Hacipasa, a Turkish official told Reuters. TRUCKS PATROLLING Further east, Syrian rebel sources in Raqqa province, which borders Akcakale, said they had seen five Turkish army trucks full of soldiers patrolling the border. NATO member Turkey was once an ally of Assad's but turned against him after his violent response to the uprising, in which activists say 30,000 people have died. Turkey has nearly 100,000 Syrian refugees in camps on its territory, has given sanctuary to rebel leaders and has led calls for Assad to quit. Its armed forces are far larger than Syria's. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at the weekend that a potential leader in an interim Syrian government could be Vice-President Farouq al-Shara. Reports in August said Shara, a former foreign minister who was appointed vice president six years ago, had tried to defect to neighboring Jordan, but Syrian state media subsequently said he had never considered leaving. "The opposition is inclined to accept these names. Farouq al-Shara has the ability to understand the system of the last 20 to 30 years," Davutoglu told the state broadcaster TRT. "Farouq al-Shara did not get involved in the recent incidents, the massacre, in a very wise and conscientious attitude. But perhaps there is nobody who knows the system better than al-Shara."[/QUOTE] [url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE8970J320121008[/url] [highlight](User was permabanned for this post ("Alt of perma'd user Celastias" - Orkel))[/highlight]

[QUOTE][Prepare For War][/QUOTE] Not going to happen, Turkey does not want a war. Plus you have chemical weapons, its a massive mess nobody else wants to get involved with. Sadly.

If they go to war, I hope they sweep through Syria fast and put an end to it all. I'm hoping for a month, maybe two, to do so. Anything longer than that and it's just another dragged out bloody conflict. [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=laserguided;37967107]Not going to happen, Turkey does not want a war. Plus you have chemical weapons, its a massive mess nobody else wants to get involved with. Sadly.[/QUOTE] Rarely do you find nations that [I]do[/I] want war. I think it's that Turkey feels that it's going to [I]have[/I] to step in soon due to these border conflicts now.

[QUOTE=laserguided;37967107]Not going to happen, Turkey does not want a war. Plus you have chemical weapons, its a massive mess nobody else wants to get involved with. Sadly.[/QUOTE] Wanting a war and getting into one are two entirely different things. Turkey does not want a war, that much you have right, but they're not afraid to fight one if push comes to shove.

But is it really worth the money for deviated shells from either side landing a few hundred meters into their side of the line? They fortified the border and retaliate to them. Plus a war with Syria would cost probably over a hundred thousand lives and then throw chemical weapons into the mix. I can't see them getting into a big war, they specifically said they dont want it to become their version of Iraq or Afghanistan.

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;37967109]If they go to war, I hope they sweep through Syria fast and put an end to it all. I'm hoping for a month, maybe two, to do so. Anything longer than that and it's just another dragged out bloody conflict. [editline]8th October 2012[/editline] Rarely do you find nations that [I]do[/I] want war. I think it's that Turkey feels that it's going to [I]have[/I] to step in soon due to these border conflicts now.[/QUOTE] Turkey could probably run over syria in a few weeks i'd bet. seeing how they're already worn from fighting.

What everyone else said If they went to war, Turkey could end all the bullshit fighting over there is one foul swoop

[QUOTE=laserguided;37967107]Not going to happen, Turkey does not want a war. Plus you have chemical weapons, its a massive mess nobody else wants to get involved with. Sadly.[/QUOTE] Chemical weapons are a can of worms that they would have to be insane to use. Mustard gas shells are pretty limited in effectiveness against military targets. Gas masks are almost undoubtedly standard issue for the Turkish military, just like most NATO nations. Using the shells on civilian targets would bring hurt like Syria couldn't imagine. Whether Turkey decided to invoke article 5 officially or not of the North Atlantic Treaty, it is extremely likely that at least several NATO nations would move for direct intervention. Chemical weapons are considered WMD's and actually using them is a BAD plan.

[QUOTE=thelurker1234;37967429]Turkey could probably run over syria in a few weeks i'd bet. seeing how they're already worn from fighting.[/QUOTE] I think it rides a lot on how the rebels react to Turkey invading. On the face of it, you would think "enemy of my enemy", but I know Turkish-Arab relations are murky at best and a Turkish victory isn't necessarily a rebel victory. What legitimacy would the rebels have if they were simply given power by Turkey instead of earning it themselves? I'm not saying they wouldn't have a right to it, but I'm sure a few will see it as Turkey "stealing their thunder" in a sense. Best case scenario, rebels fully align with Turkey and work with them all the way to putting a lead slug in Assad's head. Worse case scenario, the rebels see Turkey invading just as bad as Assad (for whatever bigoted, nationalistic, or simply ignorant reason) and this civil war turns into a three faction war.

[QUOTE=GunFox;37967499]Chemical weapons are a can of worms that they would have to be insane to use. Mustard gas shells are pretty limited in effectiveness against military targets. Gas masks are almost undoubtedly standard issue for the Turkish military, just like most NATO nations. Using the shells on civilian targets would bring hurt like Syria couldn't imagine. Whether Turkey decided to invoke article 5 officially or not of the North Atlantic Treaty, it is extremely likely that at least several NATO nations would move for direct intervention. Chemical weapons are considered WMD's and actually using them is a BAD plan.[/QUOTE] Well if they know they're going to loose, why not take down their army with them. I don't think turkey issues full chemical weapons suites. I'm not sure.

Syria will beat the crap out of turkey.

Please Turkey don't descend into barbarism, war is unnecessary.

[QUOTE=Lonestriper;37967608]Please Turkey don't descend into barbarism, war is unnecessary.[/QUOTE] Their southern frontier has already turned into a hell beyond barbarism and it's spilling into their home. What would you have them do?

[QUOTE=Lonestriper;37967608]Please Turkey don't descend into barbarism, war is unnecessary.[/QUOTE] They are already at that point, they banned booze.

[QUOTE=iseeyou;37967550]Syria will beat the crap out of turkey.[/QUOTE] A country that has consumed pretty much the biggest part of its military resources in fighting the rebels has a chance of beating a country that hasn't been in a war for a while, has its full military resources at disposition, and has the UN and NATO to back them up. Yeah sure. If this does happen though shit is gonna hit the fan so hard. Syria is fucking with the wrong people and is pretty much pissing on the only thing that allowed it to butcher the civilians freely, and that is the relative lack of action from the UN regarding them.

[QUOTE=iseeyou;37967550]Syria will beat the crap out of turkey.[/QUOTE] It probably won't considering other countries might step in...

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;37967722]Their southern frontier has already turned into a hell beyond barbarism and it's spilling into their home. What would you have them do?[/QUOTE] Maintain their border, preventing Syrian incursions and rebels using Turkish land as an attacking platform.

[QUOTE=Lonestriper;37967783]Maintain their border, preventing Syrian incursions and rebels using Turkish land as an attacking platform.[/QUOTE] They're trying and failing. Syria fires shells into their territory for long enough, and return fire just won't be enough to stop it after a while.

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;37967804]They're trying and failing. Syria fires shells into their territory for long enough, and return fire just won't be enough to stop it after a while.[/QUOTE] Provocation like that does not and should not require a similar response, stooping to war is a failure of restraint. Turkey and its people will be better off avoiding war between them and Syria.

[QUOTE=Lonestriper;37967850]Provocation like that does not and should not require a similar response, stooping to war is a failure of restraint. Turkey and its people will be better off avoiding war between them and Syria.[/QUOTE] also if the conflict kept going on more lives could be lost than if turkey jumped in.

War is inevitable for this. A major reason why Syria is even being aggressive is because Turkey is damming up the headwaters of the Tigris and Euprates rivers with their GAP project in order to provide 25% of the nations hydro power, and provide massive amounts of water for farming. Those two rivers are literally lifeblood for Syria, Iraq, etc (aka all the countries south of Turkey, and the middle east in general). The best weapon turkey has for this is that they can literally attempt to dam up the rivers fully or re-route them, making it so Syria expereinces severe drought. After all, the best way to defeat a castle is to cut off their food supply.

[QUOTE=Lonestriper;37967850]Provocation like that does not and should not require a similar response, stooping to war is a failure of restraint. Turkey and its people will be better off avoiding war between them and Syria.[/QUOTE] Turkey and its people are already being hurt and affected by this war with Syria. They can't just sit on their asses and keep letting themselves get hit. I try to take the most pacifist course of action I can, but sometimes there really is sadly no other choice but to fight back. [editline]9th October 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=KorJax;37967897]War is inevitable for this. A major reason why Syria is even being aggressive is because Turkey is damming up the headwaters of the Tigris and Euprates rivers with their GAP project in order to provide 25% of the nations hydro power, and provide massive amounts of water for farming. Those two rivers are literally lifeblood for Syria, Iraq, etc (aka all the countries south of Turkey, and the middle east in general). The best weapon turkey has for this is that they can literally attempt to dam up the rivers fully or re-route them, making it so Syria expereinces severe drought. After all, the best way to defeat a castle is to cut off their food supply.[/QUOTE] I thought that was going to affect Iraq harder than Syria, since most of Syria's population is in the southwest of the nation, away from the rivers?

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;37967902]Turkey and its people are already being hurt and affected by this war with Syria. They can't just sit on their asses and keep letting themselves get hit. I try to take the most pacifist course of action I can, but sometimes there really is sadly no other choice but to fight back.[/QUOTE] Wars of self-defense are easily justifiable, I get that. I just don't believe it is necessary by Turkey to escalate the conflict any further than it has, as doing so will only increase the response by Syria.

Sitting around and playing as a peaceful party is just going to harm Turkey more. The Syrians have proven that no matter what they're not going to stop this bullshit until a higher power comes in and forces them to, and the Turks will probably be the ones to do it. Regardless of your humanitarian "omg war is evil plz stop" standpoint, odds are that shit is gonna get sour. The Syrians are begging for war, and that's what they'll get.

It's only a matter of time until one of Syria shells kills more citizens from Turkey and Turkey declares war.

Pretty sure a war is already going down in syria. the civil kind

Everybody needs to hug one another and shut the fuck up. Problem solved.

To be honest I can't imagine that the Syrien military is stupid enough to fire at Turkey. Rebells trying to draw in Turkey seems much more likely to me.

Russia is Syria's biggest ally. If Turkey takes actions and world organizations backing the nation up, russians may as well cut diplomatic relations with the world and provoke another Cold War.

[QUOTE=No Party Hats;37968028]Sitting around and playing as a peaceful party is just going to harm Turkey more. The Syrians have proven that no matter what they're not going to stop this bullshit until a higher power comes in and forces them to, and the Turks will probably be the ones to do it. Regardless of your humanitarian "omg war is evil plz stop" standpoint, odds are that shit is gonna get sour. The Syrians are begging for war, and that's what they'll get.[/QUOTE] This, shit will get worse for Turkey if they just stand their ground. I think it's time that Turkey got involved.