Leaked UK government report says Brexit will damage growth - Polidicks

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/brexit-would-damage-uk-growth-says-leaked-cabinet-report[/url] [quote]Brexit would leave the UK worse off under three possible scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all, according to a leaked government analysis of the economic impact of leaving the EU. The document was meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week but was leaked in an embarrassing development for Theresa May and David Davis, the Brexit secretary. It said national income would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period. The government would not comment on leaked documents but sources stressed the analysis did not cover May’s preferred option of a bespoke deal amounting to a “deep and special partnership” with the EU.[/quote]

no words only embarrassment

I mean, economists have been echoing this for a couple of years now, but the leavers hate authority figures so much that they ignored these warnings.

Oh no, who could have ever guessed!

[QUOTE=EXPLOOOSIONS!;53093696]no words only embarrassment[/QUOTE] [url]https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be?utm_term=.um0Ba8PZ5#.xu6JZ6lmG[/url] [quote]Asked why the prime minister was not making the analysis public, a DExEU source told BuzzFeed News: "Because it's embarrassing."[/quote]

Shock and horror.

[QUOTE]May’s preferred option of a bespoke deal amounting to a “deep and special partnership” with the EU.[/QUOTE] You mean like... remaining in the EU? I can't believe the UK government is allowing a train crash to happen while they stand there looking at the emergency brake handle for two full years.

So now experts [I]and[/I] the totally incompetent say Brexit will damage growth. That makes it unanimous?

[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;53093769]So now experts [I]and[/I] the totally incompetent say Brexit will damage growth. That makes it unanimous?[/QUOTE] It was always going to damage growth, but it was by how much, depends now how this bespoke deal turns out.

Truly unexpected.

[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;53093769]So now experts [I]and[/I] the totally incompetent say Brexit will damage growth. That makes it unanimous?[/QUOTE] Yeah but my mate Garry down the pub reckons we spend like a billion pounds a week on the EU and his missus works at the bank so I reckon he's probably right.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;53093783]It was always going to damage growth, but it was by how much, depends now how this bespoke deal turns out.[/QUOTE] Wasn't one of the big "reasons" for leaving the whole: "EU has slow growth, its time to leave this sinking ship behind! [Rule Britannia tune]"

You mean the UK government has finally found out what anyone with half a brain found out years ago? Man, what a revelation! Truly, Brexit was founded upon great ideas and well thought-out strategies!

Ego > growth They'd rather take the hit to growth than admit they are wrong and being fucking stupid I hate this country

[QUOTE=Boilrig;53093783]It was always going to damage growth, but it was by how much, depends now how this bespoke deal turns out.[/QUOTE] Rofl I remember a few months ago you told us all "WE DONT KNOW YET"

[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;53093797]Wasn't one of the big "reasons" for leaving the whole: "EU has slow growth, its time to leave this sinking ship behind! [Rule Britannia tune]"[/QUOTE] I think it was more: "The EU as a global market share is shrinking as the rest of the world catches up and opportunities beyond the EU are expanding, and we can continue to trade with the EU anyway. [Rule Britannia tune]" [QUOTE=Killuah;53093842]Rofl I remember a few months ago you told us all "WE DONT KNOW YET"[/QUOTE] You do understand we still don't know, especially if the UK government is going to continue its push for a bespoke deal which they may or may not get, then we'll know, then with the current upbeat of the global economy, its been mentioned it may reduce the effects as well.

can we please just accept that the vote was a huge mistake and scrap this colossal mess anyone with a brain can see this is going to be a huge disaster

[QUOTE=Scot;53093858]can we please just accept that the vote was a huge mistake and scrap this colossal mess anyone with a brain can see this is going to be a huge disaster[/QUOTE] Part of the problem, if I remember correctly, is that the people without brains are distributed among voting districts in such a way that it would be suicide for any major party to put a stop to Brexit.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;53093855]You do understand we still don't know, especially if the UK government is going to continue its push for a bespoke deal which they may or may not get, then we'll know, then with the current upbeat of the global economy, its been mentioned it may reduce the effects as well.[/QUOTE] No, your point was 'we don't know if it will boost or hinder growth yet'. We now do know (and have known since the beginning, really) that it's the latter.

guys you are arguing with boilrig on EU / referendum matters. [B][I]STOP. It leads nowhere. Ignore him.[/I][/B]

iirc - he doesn't even live in UK?

[QUOTE=arleitiss;53093951]iirc - he doesn't even live in UK?[/QUOTE] NZ or Australia, he's not actually part of the UK nor will experience any of the absolute garbage he's proposing

Just proving what everyone already knew, that no matter what deal the UK gets out of Brexit, none will be as good as not leaving at all.

[QUOTE=_Axel;53093879]No, your point was 'we don't know if it will boost or hinder growth yet'. We now do know (and have known since the beginning, really) that it's the latter.[/QUOTE] Here I was thinking the leak was a speculative analysis. Know, predict, they're basically synonymous anyway.

[QUOTE=Electrocuter;53093976]Just proving what everyone already knew, that no matter what deal the UK gets out of Brexit, none will be as good as not leaving at all.[/QUOTE] WO! HOLD ON NOW! I find that offensive! Quit being a weak traitor We got loads: Blue passport More jobs (for international trade deals lawyers) Less foreigners

[QUOTE=Electrocuter;53093976]Just proving what everyone already knew, that no matter what deal the UK gets out of Brexit, none will be as good as not leaving at all.[/QUOTE] yeah the next few years are going to be tough but in 40 years we'll be top of the world again!!! :eng101s:

[QUOTE=Boilrig;53093855]I think it was more: "The EU as a global market share is shrinking as the rest of the world catches up and opportunities beyond the EU are expanding, and we can continue to trade with the EU anyway. [Rule Britannia tune]" You do understand we still don't know, especially if the UK government is going to continue its push for a bespoke deal which they may or may not get, then we'll know, then with the current upbeat of the global economy, its been mentioned it may reduce the effects as well.[/QUOTE] [url]https://facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1586748&p=52918806&viewfull=1#post52918806[/url] [editline]30th January 2018[/editline] [QUOTE=Instant Mix;53093956]NZ or Australia, he's not actually part of the UK nor will experience any of the absolute garbage he's proposing[/QUOTE] Didn't know, thanks for the info.

[QUOTE=Killuah;53094099][URL]https://facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1586748&p=52918806&viewfull=1#post52918806[/URL] [/QUOTE] Pretty sure I never said it wouldn't cause issues, I've admitted to short term damage, but until negotiations are over, we won't know the full scale of that damage. Tbh, I expected more for a 15 year period. [QUOTE=Instant Mix;53093956]NZ or Australia, he's not actually part of the UK nor will experience any of the absolute garbage he's proposing[/QUOTE] NZ, and oh please, any basic understanding of how democracy or even Government works knows you don't overturn referendums of this size, about a topic such as this, you don't end up closing the discussion, you just make it worse.

[QUOTE=Instant Mix;53093938]guys you are arguing with boilrig on EU / referendum matters. [B][I]STOP. It leads nowhere. Ignore him.[/I][/B][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Instant Mix;53093938]guys you are arguing with boilrig on EU / referendum matters. [B][I]STOP. It leads nowhere. Ignore him.[/I][/B][/QUOTE] This. You will never convince Boilrig that Brexit was a bad idea, because his entire argument is that the short term is going to be bad, and that the long term is going to be good, but he just extends the short term out as long as necessary while promising that in some nebulous future things will get better. I'm sure there is a word for what I'm trying to explain here but I can't think of it off the top of my head.