Moore's Law Will Not Hit the Wall at Exaflop Computers - Polidicks

[RELEASE] Some academics have written an 8 page paper about exascale computing and the end of Moore's law. Marc Snir et al try to make the case that * We will hit the end of Moore's law in mid-2020 with 7 nanometer lithography chips. * spintronics may not be ready in time they call for * reducing the amount of communication used by computations. * smarter use of CMOS circuitry * inventory new device technology to determine which can be deployed in 10-15 years I disagree on several aspects 1. I disagree that we will hit the wall at exaflop supercomputers. We can have an exaflop supercomputer by 2015. (NSA supercomputer). 2. Intel should have 7 nanometer process chips by 2017 [IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OTQhJxsnxPA/TfoN-pGxcTI/AAAAAAAALuE/KmzHKaaY8NQ/s1600/inteljune20117nm2017.png[/IMG] IBM and have nanowires working at 2.6 to 3 nanometers. Directed self assembly and nanoimprinting could get computer structures to 1-2 nanometers. The academics make a case for the need for faster supercomputers. I think it is more important to get faster computers that use less power across the entire range of computers. Algorithms and methods should be developed to make the smallest computers more energy efficient to enable new forms of computers and sensors in spite of relatively slow progress with batteries and beamed power. Having a battery that can last for 20 years because a device is made to operate cleverly to communicate over a distance of 45 kilometers across open wifi spectrum is an example of enabling technology for radically new applications. A Wimax or other longer range version of such devices could enable reliable communication across entire countries (especially with some repeaters in skyscrapers or mountain tops or nanosats or blimps.) Centrally and reliably managed superclouds of computer processing are interesting and a way to more fully utilize large amounts of processing power than dedicated supercomputers. For supercomputers advancing science, I think there are hard optimization modeling for society and modeling to achieve and manage molecular nanotechnology. Also, having more computer power for better artificial general intelligence. Quantum dot switches have been created that can perform femtojoule computing operations. There is advancement on mass production of quantum dots and towards theory and experiments to develop computing around quantum dots. There was Sub-femtojoule all-optical switching using a photonic-crystal nanocavity (journal Nature Photonics (May 2010) There is progress towards femtojoule phase change memory (2009) Femtojoule operations would mean one watt for a petaflop of processing and 1000 watts for an exaflop and a megawatt for a zettaflop. 100 zettaflop supercomputers would need 100 megawatts of power. IBM is talking about getting beyond silicon with phase change memory and logic and nanophotonics (and nanoplasmonics after that). Super lower power onchip photonics could enable zettaflop supercomputers with an architecture that is relatively similar to current practice. Architectures will likely have to undergo more radical change beyond a zettaflop. There will be issues about communicating across any distance covered by the speed of light as faster operations are needed. More parallelism would reduce the need for faster operations. Attoseconds and distances traveled. Attoseconds are 10^-18 seconds. 1 attosecond is the time it takes for light to travel the length of three hydrogen atoms. Zeptoseconds are 10^-21 seconds Yoctoseconds are 10^-24 seconds. 1 ys: time taken for a quark to emit a gluon. The time that light needs to traverse an atomic nucleus [/RELEASE] Source: [url]http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/06/moores-law-will-not-hit-wall-at-exaflop.html[/url]

Eventually I imagine we'll be switching to a non-conventional computing method, memristors and quantum computing?

[QUOTE=Biotoxsin;30816001]Eventually I imagine we'll be switching to a non-conventional computing method, memristors and quantum computing?[/QUOTE] My money is on rod logic, basically the nanoscale equivalent of this: [IMG]http://www.blakehelms.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/AnalyticalEngine.jpg[/IMG] Steampunk as fuck. [url]http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/mechano.html[/url] [url]http://www.halcyon.com/nanojbl/NanoConProc/nanocon2.html[/url]

[QUOTE=Eudoxia;30816126]My money is on rod logic, basically the nanoscale equivalent of this: [IMG]http://www.blakehelms.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/AnalyticalEngine.jpg[/IMG] Steampunk as fuck. [url]http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/mechano.html[/url] [url]http://www.halcyon.com/nanojbl/NanoConProc/nanocon2.html[/url][/QUOTE] Uhm. Whoa dude.

7nm-long nanotube and DNA strand, with a carbyne logic rod at the bottom: [IMG]http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3984/sizecomparison.png[/IMG] Seven nanometers is pretty huge. EDIT: I mean, that nanotube has over 600 atoms.

...But can they run Crysis? Had to make it sorry.

[QUOTE=Del91;30816776]Uhm. Whoa dude.[/QUOTE] Everything old will be made new again.

[QUOTE=Swilly;30817383]...But can they run Crysis? Had to make it sorry.[/QUOTE] By 2015 you'll have crysis on your shitty portable gaming device and by 2020 people will be laughing at you because you're not playing games with 1:1 scale models of planets for the world maps and complete molecular simulation.

[QUOTE=Atlascore;30816802]Holy fuck, 7nm? I can't even imagine how you work on something that small, designing and manufacturing CPUs and GPUs must be horrible.[/QUOTE] As having experience in (EUV) nanofabrication, I say it's pretty damn fun. Running around in the bunny suit, and using an scanning electron microscope to look for faults were my favorite. Of course, the most I've ever designed and built was a 65nm display control circuit used with LED panels.

[QUOTE=ExplodingGuy;30818461]As having experience in (EUV) nanofabrication, I say it's pretty damn fun. Running around in the bunny suit, and using an scanning electron microscope to look for faults were my favorite. Of course, the most I've ever designed and built was a 65nm display control circuit used with LED panels.[/QUOTE] Dude. That is so AWESOME.

[QUOTE=ExplodingGuy;30818461]As having experience in (EUV) nanofabrication, I say it's pretty damn fun. Running around in the bunny suit, and using an scanning electron microscope to look for faults were my favorite. Of course, the most I've ever designed and built was a 65nm display control circuit used with LED panels.[/QUOTE] Design the world's smallest violin.

[QUOTE=Eudoxia;30818763]Dude. That is so AWESOME.[/QUOTE] Hell yeah it was! The wafer are a lot shinier in person, too. [QUOTE=Psychokitten;30818836]Design the world's smallest violin.[/QUOTE] [IMG]http://i54.tinypic.com/2ns2q6r.jpg[/IMG] Way ahead of you!