• Ex-CIA Analyst Expects North Korea to Attack South Korea Before Tensions End
    20 replies, posted
[quote] Unless North Korea wants to be annihilated, its leadership has to find a way to climb down from its current wave of provocative rhetoric. But one of the CIA’s former top Pyongyang analysts thinks dictator Kim Jong-un will order a limited strike on South Korea — as a way to actually tamp down hostilities. “North Korea will launch an attack,” predicts Sue Mi Terry, a Columbia University professor who served as a senior analyst on North Korea at the CIA from 2001 to 2008. The attack won’t be nuclear, she thinks, nor will it be a barrage from the massive amounts of artillery Pyongyang has aimed south. Instead, Terry believes, “it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.” This, she thinks, is what counts as de-escalation in 2013 from the new regime in Pyongyang: a relatively small attack that won’t leave many people dead.[/quote] [url]http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/04/north-korea-climbdown/[/url]
With the amount of tension building up with NK, if they even so much as sneeze at SK they'll probably be swarmed by other nations.
How are they going to do an attack that won't be traced back to them, when pretty much the entire world is staring at them with every kind of surveillance equipment known to man?
[QUOTE] “it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.”[/QUOTE] Basically she predicts, like many other analysts, that North Korea will pull another 2010.
[quote]a relatively small attack that won’t leave many people dead.[/quote] This sentence makes me feel uneasy. It's like the people who die won't matter and it will be in vain, but we're totally cool with it.
Her name is Sue Mi, i can't take her seriously. Although she probably has a point. They really want to hit and not be hit back.
[QUOTE=T2L_Goose;40166604]This sentence makes me feel uneasy. It's like the people who die won't matter and it will be in vain, but we're totally cool with it.[/QUOTE] When it comes to the CIA they love to be morbid.
Refresh my memory, what is a "2010"
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong[/url]
I hope that is they try to pull 2010 again, that the Usa and SK jus go like 'You know what? fuck them' and bomb them into oblivion. Better to be done now before they actaully get a nuclear device.
[QUOTE=Valiantttt;40168554]I hope that is they try to pull 2010 again, that the Usa and SK jus go like 'You know what? fuck them' and bomb them into oblivion. Better to be done now before they actaully get a nuclear device.[/QUOTE] 1. No. 2. They have nuclear devices.
[QUOTE=007JamesBond007;40168495]Refresh my memory, what is a "2010"[/QUOTE] Sinking a SK navy ship and bombarding an SK island. Killed 50, two of them civillian. The sinking of the ship (that killed 46) was a sneak attack that was hard to officially trace to NK, so they kinda got away with it.
[QUOTE=Phaselancer;40166584]How are they going to do an attack that won't be traced back to them, when pretty much the entire world is staring at them with every kind of surveillance equipment known to man?[/QUOTE] [img]http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/files/2010/06/shipwww.jpg[/img] last time they split an entire southern warship in half and got away with it.
I will be very very surprised if they do. What on Earth does North Korea actually have that is capable of taking on South Korean and the US, most of their weapons are terrible.
[QUOTE=carcarcargo;40168975]I will be very very surprised if they do. What on Earth does North Korea actually have that is capable of taking on South Korean and the US, most of their weapons are terrible.[/QUOTE] You obviously don't know how Kim Jong-Un [I]really [/I]is. [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/jwa8TO8.jpg[/IMG]
[QUOTE=T2L_Goose;40166604]This sentence makes me feel uneasy. It's like the people who die won't matter and it will be in vain, but we're totally cool with it.[/QUOTE] it's so fucked up
Even if it is a sneak attack that we "can't trace back to them," do they really think that will accomplish anything? That the sanctions will stop?
[QUOTE=T2L_Goose;40166604]This sentence makes me feel uneasy. It's like the people who die won't matter and it will be in vain, but we're totally cool with it.[/QUOTE] Unless, ironically, the new South Korean president has some balls and actually does something about it this time. Enough's enough. We can all take threats from NK all day every day, and pretty much have for a month now. But another actual deadly attack?
[QUOTE]You might not know it from the American debate about North Korea, but Pyongyang has to strike a difficult balance. Regime survival is the top priority of the militaristic nation, Terry believes, so it’s got to signal strength to its own populace while not provoking either the South or the U.S. into a devastating war. “An all-out war with South Korea would spell the end of the North Korean regime,” she says. “Pyongyang knows this and wants to avoid it.”[/QUOTE] Let's hope this is true and that Kim Jung Un doesn't learn how to use the Dragonballs. It's either this, NK bitching out or actually launching a small attack for prestige.
[QUOTE=TheTalon;40170068]Unless, ironically, the new South Korean president has some balls and actually does something about it this time. Enough's enough. We can all take threats from NK all day every day, and pretty much have for a month now. But another actual deadly attack?[/QUOTE] The conservative SK government likes an external enemy. Also Seoul could be severely vulnerable.
There's a lot they could do that would be difficult to trace or at least deniable, like computer attacks on industrial infrastructure. Most of South Korea's computer hardware governing power and water management dates back to the 80s and is vulnerable to intrusion. Something like a new Stuxnet engineered by the North Koreans could do a lot of damage and would be completely deniable.
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