Forecasting model with perfect record predicts Obama reelection - Polidicks

[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqrsiuHKS31qas8z9o1_r1_500.jpg[/img] [url=http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012]US News[/url] [release]Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag. “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House. Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election. [Check out political cartoons about the 2012 GOP field.] Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement. Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.” Lichtman’s earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s decision to challenge Bush.“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.” [See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.] In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency. Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama. Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.] Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.] Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.[/release]

First time for everything I suppose, it was bound to screw up sooner or later.

I can see it

[QUOTE]Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.[/QUOTE] Except no one wants said wars to continue, regardless if they're succeeding.

we all know he is going to win, most of the entire black community is going to vote for him, people how are just now able to vote will vote for him and the republicans can't put up a fight worth a damn so no suprise.

[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;32123148]we all know he is going to win, most of the entire black community is going to vote for him, people how are just now able to vote will vote for him and the republicans can't put up a fight worth a damn so no suprise.[/QUOTE] I doubt Herman Cain is going to vote for him, and he's black. :v:

So. When was the last time a president lost reelection? Like..a century ago?

[QUOTE=CabooseRvB;32123170]So. When was the last time a president lost reelection? Like..a century ago?[/QUOTE] Hoover, I believe. All the rest either didn't run again, got assassinated or resigned since then.

[QUOTE=CabooseRvB;32123170]So. When was the last time a president lost reelection? Like..a century ago?[/QUOTE] George HW Bush

[QUOTE=Lambeth;32123189]George HW Bush[/QUOTE] Yeah, but he's a Republican, they don't count since their presidents tend to break more promises.

[QUOTE=Lambeth;32123189]George HW Bush[/QUOTE] I completely forgot about him :v:

Jimmy Carter then? [editline]4th September 2011[/editline] [QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;32123211]I completely forgot about him :v:[/QUOTE] and you call yourself a history nerd, tsk tsk

[QUOTE=Lambeth;32123189]George HW Bush[/QUOTE] He lost a re-election? Wow, never new that. I always viewed him as somewhat decent. Though I don't really know enough about him. Why'd he loose?

[QUOTE=mac338;32123233]He lost a re-election? Wow, never new that. I always viewed him as somewhat decent. Though I don't really know enough about him. Why'd he loose?[/QUOTE] The gulf war and the bad economy bogged him down.

Who the hell else would we vote for? We can have a bunch of religious elitist republicans, or a decent democrat.

[QUOTE=Trunk Monkay;32123251]Who the hell else would we vote for? We can have a bunch of religious elitist republicans, or a decent democrat.[/QUOTE] this always made me wonder, what if [B]no one[/B] voted? What would happen?

I'm still voting for black dude. I don't want evil white man to take back the throne.

it's the president after obama that i'm wondering about. do the democrats have anyone who is powerful enough on the political scene? the tea party is certainly building up their reputation and that is very important when it comes to the election.

[QUOTE=Lambeth;32123250]The gulf war and the bad economy bogged him down.[/QUOTE] The conservative vote was also split between him and a 3rd party candidate.

[QUOTE=MightyMax;32123268]this always made me wonder, what if [B]no one[/B] voted? What would happen?[/QUOTE] Doesn't matter the votes that the people do are just popular votes to recommend the people in the electoral college to elect. Like how Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush still won because of the electoral college.

[QUOTE=thisispain;32123288]it's the president after obama that i'm wondering about. do the democrats have anyone who is powerful enough on the political scene? the tea party is certainly building up their reputation and that is very important when it comes to the election.[/QUOTE] Maybe they'll run Al Gore again lol

This dude sounds like total bullshit. There are flaws all over these points.

[QUOTE=thisispain;32123288]it's the president after obama that i'm wondering about. do the democrats have anyone who is powerful enough on the political scene? the tea party is certainly building up their reputation and that is very important when it comes to the election.[/QUOTE] Tea Party is a joke. Unfortunately a very popular joke.

I thought that this thread was going to be about that one cow who's owners place pictures of nominees under, and she always manages to shit on the right one. Slightly disappointed.

I'd hope so, the only sane Republican is Mitt Romney, and he's probably going to lose the primary to one of the Tea Party dipshits. [editline]5th September 2011[/editline] [QUOTE=Zeke129;32123541]Maybe they'll run Al Gore again lol[/QUOTE] Don't even joke about things like that.

[QUOTE=Atlascore;32123601]Al Gore should run again. :v: He literally lost by like one vote last time he ran.[/QUOTE] They were equally as incompetent, so it was a pretty good race.

[QUOTE=firestorm0;32123589]This dude sounds like total bullshit. There are flaws all over these points.[/QUOTE] Yes, a college professor is totally bullshitting. [editline]5th September 2011[/editline] [QUOTE=thisispain;32123288]it's the president after obama that i'm wondering about. do the democrats have anyone who is powerful enough on the political scene? the tea party is certainly building up their reputation and that is very important when it comes to the election.[/QUOTE] Everyone seems to think that the Tea Party is some massive group but you have to remember to things. A.Normal people are to busy during Congress/Senate elections to actually vote. B.The Tea Party is a extreme fringe group, with that comes the benefit of being very very loud which makes you look bigger than you are. So in conclusion, the media loves to talk about them, but in the long run, they mean jack shit.

He's the lesser of two evils, that's for sure.

He's not the perfect president, and no one ever will be, but he's hell of a lot better than anything the opposition have brought to the table.

[QUOTE=demoguy08;32126060]He's not the perfect president, and no one ever will be, but he's hell of a lot better than anything the opposition have brought to the table.[/QUOTE] John Huntsman.