• Stockmarkets tumble 2% from oil price slump
    22 replies, posted
[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35074670[/url] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35073380[/url] [url]http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/08/commodity-crunch-mining-shares-oil-chinese-trade-shock-business-live[/url] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/markets/us/djse_indu[/url] Will lead to job losses and potentially lead to the closing of oil rigs. Maybe also spook investors. Also leading to a drop in prices for other stuff. Not sure what the implications will be and if it affects the fed increasing interest rates next month.
Several economist are saying another 2007/2008 is coming soon. It's definitely going to be an interesting year.
the implication is that consumers are saving more money, manufacturing that relies on petrolium feedstock are seeing larger profit margins, low oil prices aren't bad, the news is just focusing on the people who stand to loose when prices are low, but manufacturing isn't slumping because of low oil prices, they're slumping for other reasons the issue is many pricing models are just not working right now because the supply of oil has never outstripped the demand like it is now, in the US, oil consumption peaked in 2005 and has been falling steadily, meanwhile production has been soaring here, and the same is true elsewhere, europe's oil demand has been dropping for years too there are a lot of industries and governments that have been betting on the price skyrocketing, but thats not happened and doesn't seem to be happening any time soon, if demand goes up or supply shrinks, there are a lot of new wells that are idling right now
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;49296296]Several economist are saying another 2007/2008 is coming soon. It's definitely going to be an interesting year.[/QUOTE] Look at history and you get a recession every 8-12 years. We're due another one. [editline]11th December 2015[/editline] [QUOTE=Sableye;49296303]the implication is that consumers are saving more money, manufacturing that relies on petrolium feedstock are seeing larger profit margins, low oil prices aren't bad, the news is just focusing on the people who stand to loose when prices are low, but manufacturing isn't slumping because of low oil prices, they're slumping for other reasons[/QUOTE] It comes linked with a strong dollar - troubles for exports. And the potential for investors to pull out or be more stringent with their money.
[QUOTE=Atlascore;49296347]I feel like we haven't even fully recovered from 2008 yet.[/QUOTE] Ye I wanted to add that but wasn't quite sure how to word it.
[QUOTE=Atlascore;49296347]I feel like we haven't even fully recovered from 2008 yet.[/QUOTE] Probably because we didn't recover from it. Don't get me wrong, things are better now than they were back then, but we have not come back to where we were before the recession hit us; and if another one hits, then we'll just be even deeper in the hole. On the one hand, it makes me sad because a lot of people are going to hurt when the next one hits (and another economic crisis will hit us; it's an inevitability of our system). At the same time though, I can't help but think it will ultimately be a force for change that will push people to such a point of desperation that reforms will have to happen, and they will have to work eventually. There's no way things can continue the way that they are without everything coming to a head eventually. The $1.2 trillion student loan debt bubble will have to burst, income inequality can't continue to be as massive as it is, something will have to be done to address the falling value of college degrees and the lack of proper jobs for graduates... and so on and so forth. We've got a lot of problems we still need to deal with when you think about it, never mind the fresh economic ones another financial crisis would bring. These are interesting times to be alive, that's for sure.
What could be potentially worse than the 2008 recession is if this current housing bubble which has been created by foreign buyers pops, a lot of China's middle class sunk their income in Chinese housing and foreign housing and China's housing market is like the speculation market that lead to 2008, meanwhile global prices are getting massively overinflated, what would happen if China's middle class got their savings wiped out? The another problem is the middle class elsewhere hasn't recovered from the earnings loss, the money they've missed out on these last 6-7 years has really hurt their savings, and the political climate right now is torn on what to do about it (I personally don't believe the rrepublicans policies of tax slashes, looser tax code, and public spending freezes are the answer) [editline]11th December 2015[/editline] The college loan bubble is going to drag on the US GDP for years if something to ease it isn't done, the generation that has had to take out all these loans can't afford to become property owners, cannot afford to be consumers, cannot afford to save for the future
I really wish we could break the cycle of recessions, but right now I don't think that's feasible.
[QUOTE=Govna;49296538]Probably because we didn't recover from it. Don't get me wrong, things are better now than they were back then, but we have not come back to where we were before the recession hit us; and if another one hits, then we'll just be even deeper in the hole. On the one hand, it makes me sad because a lot of people are going to hurt when the next one hits (and another economic crisis will hit us; it's an inevitability of our system). At the same time though, I can't help but think it will ultimately be a force for change that will push people to such a point of desperation that reforms will have to happen, and they will have to work eventually. There's no way things can continue the way that they are without everything coming to a head eventually. The $1.2 trillion student loan debt bubble will have to burst, income inequality can't continue to be as massive as it is, something will have to be done to address the falling value of college degrees and the lack of proper jobs for graduates... and so on and so forth. We've got a lot of problems we still need to deal with when you think about it, never mind the fresh economic ones another financial crisis would bring. These are interesting times to be alive, that's for sure.[/QUOTE] I just hope it doesn't continue to get worse, but it probably will. The cycles will continue, the bubbles will burst, but I don't know if we'll ever actually get to fixing the problems underlying them. Bandaid fixes that don't create lasting changes, probably.
it will get worse cause if there's one thing i've learned from being born here it's that americans like to panic
[QUOTE=Govna;49296538]Probably because we didn't recover from it. Don't get me wrong, things are better now than they were back then, but we have not come back to where we were before the recession hit us; and if another one hits, then we'll just be even deeper in the hole. On the one hand, it makes me sad because a lot of people are going to hurt when the next one hits (and another economic crisis will hit us; it's an inevitability of our system). At the same time though, I can't help but think it will ultimately be a force for change that will push people to such a point of desperation that reforms will have to happen, and they will have to work eventually. There's no way things can continue the way that they are without everything coming to a head eventually. The $1.2 trillion student loan debt bubble will have to burst, income inequality can't continue to be as massive as it is, something will have to be done to address the falling value of college degrees and the lack of proper jobs for graduates... and so on and so forth. We've got a lot of problems we still need to deal with when you think about it, never mind the fresh economic ones another financial crisis would bring. These are interesting times to be alive, that's for sure.[/QUOTE] There will be problems in every regard. The Republican party is fragmented, inequality is at an all time high, people are fucking crazy over guns and paranoid that everyone is somehow against them, we have people who take everything in so serious manners, and think that democrats and republicans are enemies. The fragmentation of the union at this point is quite possible, especially considering the disenfranchisement and degradation of voters rights and voter apathy. Things WILL get bad, probably even worse than the great depression on the shallow side.
Ehehe, I made a 2% profit in today's market slump. [editline]11th December 2015[/editline] Solar energy stocks of all things...
[QUOTE=TornadoAP;49296727]I really wish we could break the cycle of recessions, but right now I don't think that's feasible.[/QUOTE] Recessions are a part of the business cycle, which is just a fact of life. Booms can't last forever and re-adjustments will need to be made eventually. Proper fiscal and monetary policy can minimise the effects of recessions and prevent depressions. Look at Australia; we never had a period of decline throughout the GFC. Fiscal policy is hard to get right because that depends on who is in government, while monetary policy is almost always done right thanks to the autonomy of reserve banks.
[QUOTE=Angus725;49297188]Ehehe, I made a 2% profit in today's market slump. [editline]11th December 2015[/editline] Solar energy stocks of all things...[/QUOTE] Must be the illuminati at the COP conference pulling levers again.
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;49296296]Several economist are saying another 2007/2008 is coming soon. It's definitely going to be an interesting year.[/QUOTE] which economists? what is their reasoning? what do you mean by 2007/2008 coming soon? when exactly? why? [QUOTE=TheDestroyerOfall;49297113]There will be problems in every regard. The Republican party is fragmented, inequality is at an all time high, people are fucking crazy over guns and paranoid that everyone is somehow against them, we have people who take everything in so serious manners, and think that democrats and republicans are enemies. The fragmentation of the union at this point is quite possible, especially considering the disenfranchisement and degradation of voters rights and voter apathy. Things WILL get bad, probably even worse than the great depression on the shallow side.[/QUOTE] imagine the disappointment when in ten years time nothing comes of the predictions in this post
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;49296296]Several economist are saying another 2007/2008 is coming soon. It's definitely going to be an interesting year.[/QUOTE] My family barely survived the 2007/2008 bullshit. I'm scared that this next "recession" might be worse, and I don't want to know what will happen... :cry:
[QUOTE=Zenreon117;49297272]Must be the illuminati at the COP conference pulling levers again.[/QUOte] The Illuminati needs solar power to be kept illuminated.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49297293]which economists? what is their reasoning? what do you mean by 2007/2008 coming soon? when exactly? why? imagine the disappointment when in ten years time nothing comes of the predictions in this post[/QUOTE] Except in america we're seeing unprecedented unfavorably of both front running republican candidates as well as of congress. I've seen more people in the time since 2008 that we should "Shoot all the democratic bastards" or "Republicans should be shot and thrown off a bridge" In history, when the majority of voters feel fucked over by their candidates, then they elect someone like trump. Besides that, right now is a crucial time in both the future and the past of our country. if we don't overcome this cycle, we're going to suffer, and if it happens in the next two years, when the economy still hasn't fully recovered, it'd be equivalent to a one-two punch.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49297293]which economists? what is their reasoning? what do you mean by 2007/2008 coming soon? when exactly? why? [/QUOTE] By another 2008 coming he means another recession. [url]http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/09/economics[/url] [url]http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/09/global-recession-two-years-likely-economist-buiter[/url] [quote]Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi and former Bank of England policymaker, warns China’s woes are set to spread[/quote] So whats a who. China is a why (a, there seem to be several other indicators) When next 2 years [url]http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp[/url] Lists 6 reasons as European debt crisis China bubble burst Student loans (1.2tr in the US) Unemployment (according to the article the figures are misleading) Central banks interest rates already low so not much flexibility (fed is meant to be putting theirs up next month) "Economic Data Shows Patterns Similar to Right Before the Last Recession" I'm going to appeal to authority and let the several links/economists provided make the case that a recession might come in 2016. Other general reading which conveys the same message. [url]http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/10/12/Why-We-Might-Be-Headed-Recession-2016[/url] [url]http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/09/01/Stocks-Are-Sending-Recession-Warning[/url] [url]http://www.thestreet.com/story/13381364/1/2016-best-year-since-the-recession-or-the-start-of-another-one.html[/url] [quote]But not all reports are as optimistic. Citigroup's 2016 [URL="http://www.citibank.com/wealthmanagementlatinamerica/homepage/cio/cwmlaBaseCase.pdf"]economic outlook[/URL] predicts a 65% chance of a recession in the next year, mainly due to slowed global and domestic growth. There is still positive earnings potential for companies, however, the New York bank said.[/quote] <- citi bank so I guess its the same guy [sp] My own naive arguement about recession is to look at markets http://www.google.com/finance?cid=13756934 http://www.google.co.uk/finance?cid=983582 In both you can see a big build up before the drops in 2008 and 2008. Looks like we've hit a peak again or to look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States They have happened fairly regularly for the last 150 years or so and I have no reason to think we have suddenly found a way to break that cycle. This bit in spoiler is my own argument. If you need convincing use the material above.[/sp] edit: worth nothing that economists don't like predicting recession. Its very difficult, nobody will thank you if you're right and everyone will mock/fire you if you're wrong.
[QUOTE=Angus725;49297188]Ehehe, I made a 2% profit in today's market slump. [editline]11th December 2015[/editline] Solar energy stocks of all things...[/QUOTE] hopefully my gamble of going into green energy will work out
[QUOTE=JoeSkylynx;49296296]Several economist are saying another 2007/2008 is coming soon. It's definitely going to be an interesting year.[/QUOTE] Recessions are cyclic. I have no doubt.
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;49299835]By another 2008 coming he means another recession. [url]http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/09/economics[/url] [url]http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/09/global-recession-two-years-likely-economist-buiter[/url] So whats a who. China is a why (a, there seem to be several other indicators) When next 2 years [url]http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp[/url] Lists 6 reasons as European debt crisis China bubble burst Student loans (1.2tr in the US) Unemployment (according to the article the figures are misleading) Central banks interest rates already low so not much flexibility (fed is meant to be putting theirs up next month) "Economic Data Shows Patterns Similar to Right Before the Last Recession" I'm going to appeal to authority and let the several links/economists provided make the case that a recession might come in 2016. Other general reading which conveys the same message. [url]http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/10/12/Why-We-Might-Be-Headed-Recession-2016[/url] [url]http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/09/01/Stocks-Are-Sending-Recession-Warning[/url] [url]http://www.thestreet.com/story/13381364/1/2016-best-year-since-the-recession-or-the-start-of-another-one.html[/url] <- citi bank so I guess its the same guy [sp] My own naive arguement about recession is to look at markets http://www.google.com/finance?cid=13756934 http://www.google.co.uk/finance?cid=983582 In both you can see a big build up before the drops in 2008 and 2008. Looks like we've hit a peak again or to look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States They have happened fairly regularly for the last 150 years or so and I have no reason to think we have suddenly found a way to break that cycle. This bit in spoiler is my own argument. If you need convincing use the material above.[/sp] edit: worth nothing that economists don't like predicting recession. Its very difficult, nobody will thank you if you're right and everyone will mock/fire you if you're wrong.[/QUOTE] mcdeceiver, have you ever heard of Jim Rickards? For a guy who negotiated the recapitalization of LTCM, a hedge fund management firm after it went belly-up in 1998, I personally think he'd be a good person to look up. He has also been able to identify when major economic crises are coming, hell, even knew 2 years before the GFC that something wasn't right with the global financial markets. Check out his main website [URL="http://dailyreckoning.com/"]http://dailyreckoning.com/[/URL] One thing to add, take a look at the current Fed cash rates, many european central bank cash rates (especially the ECB) and a whole lot of others,have kept their rates extremely low due to a weak economy (and in some cases, are at negative cash rates) it's certain that they know that the economy still hasn't recovered since late 2007 and that actual GDP hasn't caught up with the amount of credit banks are lending. With cash rates so low, it's obvious that we are now in a money sink of easy money in which is ballooning the amount of credit in the global financial system. One example (Note: these are not my graphs): [IMG]http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2015/12/TCMDO-GDP7-14b.png[/IMG] [QUOTE]Graph showing GDP & TCMDO (total credit market debt)[/QUOTE] [IMG]http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/uploads/2015/12/tcmdo6-15.png[/IMG] [QUOTE]Graph showing total TCM (total market credit)[/QUOTE] There are reports that have been publicly available from the regional federal reserves : [URL="https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2015/10/fred-expands-the-financial-accounts-of-the-united-states-data-set/"]https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2015/10/fred-expands-the-financial-accounts-of-the-united-states-data-set/[/URL] and [URL="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/33726"]https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/33726[/URL] It's clear that the global economy is about to deflate once again due to a spending frenzy in things which are rapidly becoming illiquid and basically losing value itself. (source: [URL="http://dailyreckoning.com/the-american-dream-is-over-and-voters-know-it/"]http://dailyreckoning.com/the-american-dream-is-over-and-voters-know-it/[/URL] ) I honestly think that Yellen (Chairwoman of the Board of Governors, United States Federal Reserve and is the presiding member of the FOMC ~ the Federal Open Market Committee) does not know how to remedy this situation and the Fed has reached a criticality point in regards to the US economy as a whole.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.