• With less than a week to go until CA primaries, Sanders and Clinton are neck and neck in the polls
    76 replies, posted
[url]http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141[/url] [QUOTE] Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-point lead over Bernie Sanders in California ahead of the state's June 7 primary, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. Clinton gets support from 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, while Sanders gets 47 percent, which is within the survey's statistical margin of error. [B] And among a wider electorate of all potential Democratic voters in California, Sanders is actually ahead by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent. [/B][/QUOTE] Thoughts? Predictions?
Isn't it all just a formality at this point? Doesn't Sanders need to win something like 80% of the vote in all the remaining states?
[QUOTE=wystan;50443650]Isn't it all just a formality at this point? Doesn't Sanders need to win something like 80% of the vote in all the remaining states?[/QUOTE] No, he just needs to come really close or surpass clintons pledged delegate count (She has a 200 something lead at this point and california is worth almost double that). I believe he needs about 60 percent of california to catch up. Once he has the pledged lead, superdelegates will switch to him
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443615][url]http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141[/url] Thoughts? Predictions?[/QUOTE] clinton wins the 70 delagates she needs and then some sanders has to conceed, and at the convention DWS and clinton push a centrist agenda totally ignoring the independants that bernie brings, and any progressive message in favor of a status quo and "pragmatic" approach cody, she only has to place, not win to win
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443666]I believe he needs about 60 percent of california to catch up.[/QUOTE] He needs to take 75% of the delegates to lead in pledged delegates.
[QUOTE=Sableye;50443669]clinton wins the 70 delagates she needs and then some sanders has to conceed, and at the convention DWS and clinton push a centrist agenda totally ignoring the independants that bernie brings, and any progressive message in favor of a status quo and "pragmatic" approach cody, she only has to place, not win to win[/QUOTE] Well when bernie wins california and superdelegates start thinking about the reality of a trump presidency, they'll come around. All he needs is to cut down the small deficit, which is looking more plausible with every new poll
Actually that's the total delegates, he needs 78% of the available [I]pledged[/I] delegates from California to lead in pledged delegates.
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443707]Well when bernie wins california and superdelegates start thinking about the reality of a trump presidency, they'll come around. All he needs is to cut down the small deficit, which is looking more plausible with every new poll[/QUOTE]I wish I was optimistic as you.
not gonna have high hopes for this, but I'm hoping Sanders will have a shot at winning. I know him winning CA won't really do much for him at this point, but it'd be nice for him to win anyways.
[QUOTE=wystan;50443650]Isn't it all just a formality at this point? Doesn't Sanders need to win something like 80% of the vote in all the remaining states?[/QUOTE] So now you guys get the choice between a liar and a retard. What a world eh
What happens once Hillary gets the remaining 70 she needs to secure the nomination, which will happen regardless if she "wins" California, wouldn't the race effectively end there?
[QUOTE=peterson;50443747]I wish I was optimistic as you.[/QUOTE] When you have a election system like America, optimism and spreading it around goes a mile in making it better.
[QUOTE=wystan;50443764]What happens once Hillary gets the remaining 70 she needs to secure the nomination, which will happen regardless if she "wins" California, wouldn't the race effectively end there?[/QUOTE] That's not how it works. Assuming she passes 2383 delegates PLEDGED, then the race would be over. But you're counting superdelegates who don't vote until the convention and usually vote for whoever leads in pledged delegates
[QUOTE=wystan;50443764]What happens once Hillary gets the remaining 70 she needs to secure the nomination, which will happen regardless if she "wins" California, wouldn't the race effectively end there?[/QUOTE] I think it may come down to a vote at the DNC if both happen to get to the delegate majority needed, just for Clinton it's that much easier. I may be wrong though.
Most people are now expecting the Democratic primary contest to be over before California is done voting. Clinton [url=https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/738114607789801472]needs 67 more delegates[/url] to be declared the presumptive Democratic nominee, and will likely cross that threshold on the basis of early returns from New Jersey, before the polls close in California.
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443707]Well when bernie wins california and superdelegates start thinking about the reality of a trump presidency, they'll come around. All he needs is to cut down the small deficit, which is looking more plausible with every new poll[/QUOTE] The world must be a very pleasant place when you discount reality completely.
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;50443913]The world must be a very pleasant place when you discount reality completely.[/QUOTE] Just going by math and history, bernie has a really good chance. It's bullshit to call it for hillary while counting superdelegates who can change their vote at any time up till the convention.
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443935]Just going by math and history, bernie has a really good chance. It's bullshit to call it for hillary while counting superdelegates who can change their vote at any time up till the convention.[/QUOTE] I envy your ability for wishful thinking and optimism.
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443935]Just going by math and history, bernie has a really good chance. It's bullshit to call it for hillary while counting superdelegates who can change their vote at any time up till the convention.[/QUOTE] did you develop that new branch of mathematics which attempts to formulate solutions in which bernie sanders wins the nomination?
[QUOTE=Big Dumb American;50443913]The world must be a very pleasant place when you discount reality completely.[/QUOTE] It's like that "Bernie Math" video :v:
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;50443965]did you develop that new branch of mathematics which attempts to formulate solutions in which bernie sanders wins the nomination?[/QUOTE] Bernie is behind by 268 delegates, california is worth 475. NJ is 126. Idk what your math looks like but bernie is still in the race if you look at the pledged delegate count
I voted Bernie on my mailin ballot, but I'm not expecting any kind of miracle here.
Bernie is expected to lose by 15 points, so that's what I'm going with. [editline]2nd June 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=smurfy;50443854]Most people are now expecting the Democratic primary contest to be over before California is done voting. Clinton [url=https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/738114607789801472]needs 67 more delegates[/url] to be declared the presumptive Democratic nominee, and will likely cross that threshold on the basis of early returns from New Jersey, before the polls close in California.[/QUOTE] And this ends the thread
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443984]Bernie is behind by 268 delegates, california is worth 475. NJ is 126. Idk what your math looks like but bernie is still in the race if you look at the pledged delegate count[/QUOTE] Little bit of math: Let's set bernie's current count to 0, and hillary's to 268 (her lead) There are 475 delegates in california and 126 in NJ. So, let's make a little inequality about california for now: Where x = the number of delegates bernie needs to beat hillary, x > 268 + (475 - x) -> x > 743 - x -> 2x > 743 which is true if and only if [b]x > (743/2)[/b] which means bernie must win 372/475 delegates in california to pull ahead of hillary there, or roughly 78% of the vote. now, that's a simple fantasy. So let's include New Jersey, which should make things a bit easier. x > 268 + (475 + 126 - x) -> x > 869 - x -> 2x > 869 which is true if and only if x > 869/2 which means Bernie must win 435/601, or roughly 72% of the total delegates in California and New Jersey to pull ahead. So, unless Hillary Clinton is indicted between then and now, I see no way for Sanders to jump [b]20 points in the polls[/b] in that short period of time
You guys ready for President Trump when Hillary wins the nomination?
[url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/[/url] Remember that time bernie was down in the polls by 7 points (but some polls reported he was down by 15%) and won by 5%? I'm gonna stay optimistic but i'll vote for the lesser of 2 evils if clinton is a real threat
[QUOTE=EcksDee;50443758]So now you guys get the choice between a liar and a retard. What a world eh[/QUOTE] I'm utterly baffled that the majority of the US seems to prefer a lying cunt like Clinton or a racist mysoginistic retard like Trump over Bernie.
Worst election cycle in a long time. It's been funny to watch but depressing to come to terms with. Kudos on Sanders making it as far as he did. Atleast he's brought the issues he represents to a much wider audience
I've practically given up on trying to tell people that superdelegates don't vote until the convention. At this point, people seem to just be going with what the media tells them: that Sanders is mathematically eliminated from the nomination, which is a flat-out lie. But I suppose it's all the same when you factor superdelegates in, right? Even though they don't even vote until the convention, and can switch their vote at any time?
[QUOTE=cody8295;50443935]Just going by math and history, bernie has a really good chance. It's bullshit to call it for hillary while counting superdelegates who can change their vote at any time up till the convention.[/QUOTE] dude ok even I want bernie to win badly but he's done, it's over. no matter the outcome here in cali it's over for him. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is. there is no "math" you can make to show bernie winning this thing.
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