Canada votes: Trudeau in the lead to win a minority
287 replies, posted
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[QUOTE]After 78 days, it all comes down to tomorrow. And the polls, at least, suggest that the day will go to the Liberals, installing Justin Trudeau as Canada's next prime minister.
​Up to and including those published by early Sunday morning, the Liberals have led in 17 consecutive polls, including surveys conducted by eight different polling firms using an array of methodologies.
The polls of all but one of those firms put the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives outside the margin of error. And every poll has the New Democrats in third, trailing the Conservatives by between seven and 12 points and the Liberals by between 12 and 17 points.
The CBC Poll Tracker, which will be updated throughout the day Sunday as new polls are published, has awarded the Liberals a lead in the polling average and in the average seat projection since Oct. 7. The Liberals' likely high range of seats has also outpaced the Conservatives' high range for the last week, as Trudeau's party moved ahead in Ontario and subdued the advantage the Tories had in vote efficiency.
The gap that exists between the Liberals and Conservatives in the Poll Tracker is not wide enough to give the Liberals a high probability of reaching the 170-seat mark required for a majority government. It is also not wide enough to rule out the possibility the Conservatives could eke out more seats than the Liberals nationwide.
So, though the Liberals are favoured in the polls today, it still makes the outcome of tomorrow's election uncertain.
Nevertheless, the party holds almost every advantage in the polls. The Liberals have the momentum, having picked up an average of two points per week over the last three weeks. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have seen no discernible trend, negative or positive, over that time. Justin Trudeau is more highly rated than Stephen Harper on who would make the best prime minister, and Trudeau's approval ratings are far superior to those of Harper. Even on ballot box issues such as the economy, polls suggest Trudeau is at least on even terms with the Conservative leader.
Though momentum could carry them there, a majority government seems to be out of reach for the Liberals. While the party has made impressive inroads among francophones in Quebec, it may not be enough to deliver the seats they need to get over the majority threshold. But depending on how effective the Liberals are at getting their vote out in Ontario, and whether or not they win most or all of the swing ridings up for grabs, the party could be knocking on the door of a majority government before the night is over.
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[url]http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct18-1.3276755[/url]
A minority means we're fucked yet again because nothing will get through.
[QUOTE=pentium;48933502]A minority means we're fucked yet again because nothing will get through.[/QUOTE]
At least if it's a Liberal minority and NDP manages to get a decent amount of seats Harper won't be able to fuck as any harder than he already has.
Out of the three major parties, Trudeau is the most inspiring and passionate agent of change in my opinion. While my heart is for the Marxist-Leninist's I had to vote liberal simply to oust Harper.
[QUOTE=isreal?;48933542]Out of the three major parties, Trudeau seems to be the most inspiring and passionate agent of change.[/QUOTE]
Still will probably be a corporate shill. He's pussyfooting around killing c-51 and renegotiating the TPP, which is doing the opposite of inspiring me personally. At least we'll go from "Fucked" to "Slightly Less Fucked."
[QUOTE=AtomicWaffle;48933558]Still will probably be a corporate shill. He's pussyfooting around killing c-51 and renegotiating the TPP, which is doing the opposite of inspiring me personally. At least we'll go from "Fucked" to "Slightly Less Fucked."[/QUOTE]
Maybe so, but if he wins a minority he might need the NDP to cooperate in parliament, so we could see some sort of middle ground between the NDP and the Liberals.
This isn't good.
This will just lead to an attempt at re-election for a majority in a year and then we'll get another conservative majority
Hey, a majority is still possible, but highly unlikely.
It all starts tomorrow, guys. :worried:
We have 1 Job. If the liberals don't get a majority we'll be at a halt, but at least we won't keep going backwards.
[QUOTE=LegoGuy;48933716]It all starts tomorrow, guys. :worried:
We have 1 Job. If the liberals don't get a majority we'll be at a halt, but at least we won't keep going backwards.[/QUOTE]
We're doing good as long as Harper has to find a new job tomorrow.
[QUOTE=Taepodong-2;48933726]We're doing good as long as Harper has to find a new job tomorrow.[/QUOTE]
Indeed, what I want to know is why do 30% of people who take that poll believe in Harper's [URL="http://dont-be-a-fucking-idiot.ca/"]bullshit[/URL]?
Good to know to avoid my dad tomorrow as he's probably gonna be pissed off that Harper does not get re-elected.
Regardless of which party you vote for (even the CPC, if you must), I want every Canadian facepuncher old enough to vote to get into a polling station tomorrow and do your civic duty.
Only about 60% of eligible voters actually voted last election, and look at the five years of sodomy it got us. [highlight][URL="http://elections.ca/home.aspx"]Vote.[/URL][/highlight]
I think this entire election is about legalizing weed. Trudeau is riding in on the weed ticket and he is going to win. Other than weed, he is likely just another lying politician who happens to be quite inspiring when it comes to speeches and appearances.
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We have never had a more opportune time to legalize weed. In my opinion, if Harper wins this election we wont get the same chance that we have now for a long time. So get out and VOTE!
[QUOTE=isreal?;48933853]I think this entire election is about legalizing weed. Trudeau is riding in on the weed ticket and he is going to win. Other than weed, he is likely just another lying politician who happens to be quite inspiring when it comes to speeches and appearances.
[t]https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/t31.0-8/s960x960/12087042_10153327240009164_8105273877341702659_o.png[/t]
We have never had a more opportune time to legalize weed. In my opinion, if Harper wins this election we wont get the same chance that we have now for a long time. So get out and VOTE![/QUOTE]
Maybe all of those farmers who lose their jobs under the TPP can grow weed instead.
[QUOTE=isreal?;48933853]I think this entire election is about legalizing weed. Trudeau is riding in on the weed ticket and he is going to win. Other than weed, he is likely just another lying politician who happens to be quite inspiring when it comes to speeches and appearances.
[t]https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/t31.0-8/s960x960/12087042_10153327240009164_8105273877341702659_o.png[/t]
We have never had a more opportune time to legalize weed. In my opinion, if Harper wins this election we wont get the same chance that we have now for a long time. So get out and VOTE![/QUOTE]
If you think the entire election is about weed you're missing out on literally everything.
[QUOTE=isreal?;48933542]Out of the three major parties, Trudeau is the most inspiring and passionate agent of change in my opinion. While my heart is for the Marxist-Leninist's I had to vote liberal simply to oust Harper.[/QUOTE]
NDP was retarded for trying to appear centrist and neglecting stuff like weed.
[QUOTE=Taepodong-2;48933892]If you think the entire election is about weed you're missing out on literally everything.[/QUOTE]
Okay, entire election was an overstatement. But in my area I will witness huge changes if weed is legalized. We'll have an influx of job openings and more tax dollars invested into our government coffers.
Yes, TPP and C-51 are extremely important, as well as the left cause. But right now, one of the pillars of liberal support is definitely weed.
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;48933601]This isn't good.
This will just lead to an attempt at re-election for a majority in a year and then we'll get another conservative majority[/QUOTE]
As long as Harper's gone by then, then I'll be happy.
[editline]18th October 2015[/editline]
[QUOTE=isreal?;48933934]Okay, entire election was an overstatement. But in my area I will witness huge changes if weed is legalized. We'll have an influx of job openings and more tax dollars invested into our government coffers.
Yes, TPP and C-51 are extremely important, as well as the left cause. But right now, one of the pillars of liberal support is definitely weed.[/QUOTE]
The biggest difference I think I'll see in weed is Yonge-Dundas will smell even more like pot than it already does, and it's obnoxious enough already. Unless they treat it like booze, which in Ontario they probably will, and arrest anyone smoking in public like they do people drinking in public.
had NDP been for legalizing weed they would would still be winning oh well
I know someone who used to work at one of those survey companies, they told me that worth noting that they get this info over the phone. Who the hell picks up the phone for these surveys? People with nothing else to do, home parents and old people. And that these statistics mean jack shit nothing.
so it could anybodies guess
I agree there are more important issues than weed but like you said that pretty much one of the main reason there passionate about this
[QUOTE=The golden;48934334]Canada has a lot bigger issues than weed being legal or not. Kind of sad that some people only care about the elections when their joints are involved.[/QUOTE]
It's criminalization does nothing for our nation and wastes our money. we could make money off of it, and not be afraid of legal consequences that have no reason to exist.
yes we have many important issues to deal with, but don't act like it's stupid people care about that. It's an issue that a clear cut stance really helped the liberals with.
I think most young people are voting over affordable housing more than weed, it's just that between NDP or liberals, both who are trying to boast some sort of affordable housing plan, are separated by an issue the NDP failed to be clear on.
yea I like'd NDp plans but the guy felt like bit of a weak leader,.
[QUOTE=The golden;48934334]Canada has a lot bigger issues than weed being legal or not. Kind of sad that some people only care about the elections when their joints are involved.[/QUOTE]
Weed and Muslims. Its a good election.
[QUOTE=garychencool;48934126]I know someone who used to work at one of those survey companies, they told me that worth noting that they get this info over the phone. Who the hell picks up the phone for these surveys? People with nothing else to do, home parents and old people. And that these statistics mean jack shit nothing.[/QUOTE]
The polls [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011]seem to have done a decent enough job in 2011[/url], they're never going to be spot on but they can certainly give a general picture of the situation. Of course there are upsets like in the UK this year where all the polls were way off and the result was a total shock, but those are exception.
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;48933820]Regardless of which party you vote for (even the CPC, if you must), I want every Canadian facepuncher old enough to vote to get into a polling station tomorrow and do your civic duty.
Only about 60% of eligible voters actually voted last election, and look at the five years of sodomy it got us. [highlight][URL="http://elections.ca/home.aspx"]Vote.[/URL][/highlight][/QUOTE]
I already voted, thank god for early polls because the last election I voted in was a nightmare to get done on the day of the election.
I have to ask, is there anywhere where I can follow the election live? (Even though I'm not a Canadian and don't live in Canada?)
In my honest opinion, I'd say it might be too close to call yet, probably not till late tonight (or about Midday tomorrow for me as I'm 14 1/2 hours ahead) to find out who will savour victory, but with odds looking towards a narrow majority for the Liberals or even a Liberal-NDP Coalition.
I have a feeling that Trudeau might have to work with Mulcair in having any chance in running the country and having a safe supply of votes in the House of Commons and the Senate to be able to have a functioning government.
[QUOTE=The golden;48934334]Canada has a lot bigger issues than weed being legal or not. Kind of sad that some people only care about the elections when their joints are involved.[/QUOTE]
I care because it is something that matters to me.
I was slammed with a criminal record over this stupid petty shit when I was young and stupid. It is a waste of resources, fucked me over unnecessarily, and I want to prevent that from happening again in the future to others.
Not to mention the tax revenue it could pull in and the decrease in crime (which has been statistically shown down in the States where it has been legalized).
Sure, Canada has bigger issues, but that does not discount this as one such issue that [B]is[/B] a valid point of concern.
This isn't to say that this is all I care about though. I am taking a look at the bigger picture and am not voting based primarily on their stance on marijuana.
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