World’s top economies in 2050 will be... China, US, India - Polidicks

[QUOTE](CNN) – The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years. The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S. But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators: * By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16th largest economy. * Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26th place – ahead of Iran, Colombia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37th), Turkey (up six spots to 12th), Malaysia (up 17 to 21st) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45th). * Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4th largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3rd on the list. * The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56th ( -29), Norway to 48th ( -22), Sweden to 38th (-20) and Finland to 57th (-19). HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010) 1) China (+2) 2) U.S. (-1) 3) India (+5) 4) Japan (-2) 5) Germany (-1) 6) UK (-1) 7) Brazil (+2) 8) Mexico (+5) 9) France (-3) 10) Canada (same) 11) Italy (-4) 12) Turkey (+6) 13) S. Korea (-2) 14) Spain (-2) 15) Russia (+2) 16) Philippines (+27) 17) Indonesia (+4) 18) Australia (-2) 19) Argentina (2) 20) Egypt (+15) 21) Malaysia (+17) 22) Saudi Arabia (+1) 23) Thailand (+6) 24) Netherlands (-9) 25) Poland (-1) 26) Peru (+20) 27) Iran (+7) 28) Colombia (+12) 29) Switzerland (-9) 30) Pakistan (+14) “If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive,” the report says. In other words, demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law (a caveat that explains China and Saudi Arabia’s high placement). “We openly admit that behind these projections we assume governments build on their recent progress and remain solely focused on increasing the living standards for their populations,” the report says. “Of course, this maybe an overly glossy way of viewing the world.” Chief factors that may derail economies moving forward, the report says: War, energy consumption constraints, climate change, and growing barriers to population movement across borders.[/quote] Source; [url]http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/?hpt=hp_bn2[/url] Canada is chill with where it's at.

I was expecting Brazil to be higher up. Don't they have one of the largest and fastest growing global economies?

[QUOTE=DhoomLord;34188982]I was expecting Brazil to be higher up. Don't they have one of the largest and fastest growing global economies?[/QUOTE] Apparently not. But this is all just predictions, not set in stone.

look at the Philippines go!

[QUOTE]* The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56th ( -29), Norway to 48th ( -22), Sweden to 38th (-20) and Finland to 57th (-19).[/QUOTE] :( Time to learn Chinese and move before everything goes to shit.

But America' going to collapse! Facepunch told me so!

China's not going to be at that level. It's going to go through a bunch of economic turmoil in the coming decades.

China might go down a lot in a while, the one child policy they enacted has created a situation where there's gonna be a mass of old people leaving the workforce, and not enough working age citizens to fill the gaps. There's also a chance India will take over China, I think India has more GDP growth nowadays.

Once China's real estate bubble pops, they're going to sent right back to the [del]early 1900's[/del].

India has this shit in the bag. Indian labour is already cheaper than Chinese.

I have a hard time believing that India won't surpass the USA. With one billion people and even a decent GDP per person, it seems likely that they'd put out more money than the USA

I'm planning to expatriate to Britain, so it's really nice to see that the UK hasn't gone down [I]too[/I] much. Very surprised to see the US in the top 3, but then again, we're a fucking powerhouse (so far anyway). I mean, our country was literally on the fulcrum point preceding destruction and we managed to keep the country in the top 3. Go America. Shit culture (sometimes, maybe for the most part), though.

Actually, pretty much all serious predictions expect China to flat-out never overtake the U.S. Someone above mentioned the fact that they are about to have an incredibly old work force. Right now, China is doing well because they had a population boom, which means they have a lot of working age individuals with few children and elderly, which is great for their dependency ratio. But the problem is that in the next 20 years, an absolutely massive number of people will be outside the working age, and there is not an equal number of people to fill in for them. Their dependency ratio is going to turn to shit. Also take in to consideration budding industries in countries like Taiwan and Vietnam, which are seeing an incredible growth in industry. There is a growing shift away from China to safer countries like those two, and these nations will quite happily welcome the chance to take business away from China.

India will also take business away from China. And while it is true that China will have a huge Demographic problem, it's not like the country will suddenly implode on itself into dust.

[QUOTE=person11;34190008]India will also take business away from China. And while it is true that China will have a huge Demographic problem, it's not like the country will suddenly implode on itself into dust.[/QUOTE]No, but it will pretty much curb their economic growth.

I am somewhat alright with this.

[QUOTE=ExplodingGuy;34189765]Once China's real estate bubble pops, they're going to sent right back to the early 1900's.[/QUOTE] Here we go again with this "hurr china is going to collapse" that has been going on since 1989. Are you American folks seriously that insecure about not-being-the greatest superpower anymore? Because that's how I see it. Given that these kind of "predictions" are almost exclusively from that country. [QUOTE=Doctor Zedacon;34190027]No, but it will pretty much curb their economic growth.[/QUOTE] Ditto, they are probably pulling the same stunt from the 1995 and 2006 and expanding while everyone else are too busy dealing with the economic troubles.

[QUOTE=smeismastger;34190216]Here we go again with this "hurr china is going to collapse" that has been going on since 1989. Are you American folks seriously that insecure about not-being-the greatest superpower anymore? Because that's how I see it. Given that these kind of "predictions" are almost exclusively from that country.[/QUOTE]Educate yourself. [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E[/media]

These predictions are short sighted and misinformed. On pretty much all accounts.

I should move back. :v: just kidding, not being able to use Youtube/Facebook was hard.

-[[B]REMOVED[/B]]

Australia's still in the top 20, so I'm happy. [editline]13th January 2012[/editline] Beats most countries of similar sizes.

[QUOTE=Shiftyze;34190434]I should move back. :v: just kidding, not being able to use Youtube/Facebook was hard.[/QUOTE]Wait, when the hell did you come back?

India at number 3? Woo. :D

I'm not sure how people are seriously saying I am wrong about my first post. Everything that I said is true. But further more, China and it's economy is actually heavily dependent on the U.S. (as well as the rest of the Western world, but particularly the U.S.) and the nature of it basically means they can't over take us. What you hear about China surpassing the U.S. or how China could crush us because they own the debt, its all bullshit. At best, its misinformed. It is called media sensationalism. We have a forum dedicated to the stuff.

These far predictions are always wrong. The top 5 might be top 10 or something.

Germany, fifth? I'm fine with that.

I doubt the US will fall below third, but that's really only if we keep the retards out of office.

Who knows, maybe, economic positions are usually a crock of shit in this modern day and age where things aren't as fluid and predictable. I reckon as soon as the price for their work force increases in demand the less power they're going to have.

[QUOTE=ExplodingGuy;34190250]Educate yourself. [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E[/media][/QUOTE] That's not what the real estate bubble is about. One, two, three or even twenty ghost cities isn't what makes a nation collapse and fall back a hundred years. How many ghost cities are there really? Two?