[highlight]Results are still coming in, but the battle has finished.[/highlight][QUOTE][b]New Hampshire Time zone: EST = GMT-5[/b][/QUOTE]
[highlight]Time of last update: 0250 GMT[/highlight]
[quote][highlight]Democrats - Bernie Sanders has won New Hampshire[/highlight]
[media]https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/697225768447815682[/media][/quote]
[quote][highlight]Republicans - Donald Trump has won New Hampshire, with John Kasich in second place[/highlight]
[media]https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/697234358306996224[/media]
[media]https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/697244924480245760[/media][/quote]
[QUOTE][highlight]Results:[/highlight]
[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/new-hampshire/[/url]
[url]http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/feb/09/new-hampshire-primary-results-live-2016-presidential-election-county-by-county-map[/url]
[url]http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/new-hampshire[/url][/QUOTE]
[QUOTE][IMG]http://i.imgur.com/cG1IA5c.png[/IMG]
[b]Republican Candidates:[/b]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/jFYBycy.png[/IMG]
[b]Democratic Candidates:[/b]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/nYCZXuI.png[/IMG][/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Saving this box for FP User sources:][QUOTE][highlight]FiveThirtyEight Predictions[/highlight] (Thanks Smurfy)
[b]Republican[/b]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/ZHPOsLq.png[/IMG]
[url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/[/url]
[b]Democrat[/b]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/TlDZbFh.png[/IMG]
[url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/[/url][/QUOTE][QUOTE=smurfy;49704587][media]https://twitter.com/hardball/status/696755509311967232[/media][/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Live Text Sources:]The Guardian - [url]http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/us-elections-2016[/url]
The Guardian - [url]http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/09/new-hampshire-primary-results-polls-us-election-2016-live-coverage[/url]
Fox Live Blog - [url]http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/live-blog[/url]
Politico - [url]http://www.politico.com/news/new-hampshire[/url][/QUOTE][QUOTE=Live Video Sources:]
[QUOTE][media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mq5hrUDoYo[/media][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
[QUOTE][highlight]Importance?[/highlight]
[b]According to Wikipedia[/b]
There is consensus among scholars and pundits that the New Hampshire primary, because of the timing and the vast media attention, can have a great impact and may even make or break or revive a candidate.
Controlling for other factors statistically, a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by [B]27 percentage points[/B].
[b]Republicans:[/b]
As of February 7, Donald Trump led with 33 points over Marco Rubio's 16%. 10 major candidates are vying for the nomination, along with twice that many other candidates paying the US$1000 entry fee as well, [b]creating one of the most crowded contests in recent times[/b].
[b]Democrats:[/b]
As of February 5, [b]Bernie Sanders led by 20 points[/b] over Hillary Clinton in the most recent poll.
Source:
[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary[/url][/QUOTE]
If you have any more sources, [highlight]PM me[/highlight].
This post is a WIP.
FiveThirtyEight has Sanders with a 99% chance of winning on the Dem side, while for the GOP Trump has a 70% chance with Rubio in a distant second with 13%
Lets fuckin' go Sanders!
[b]Foxy Grandpa 2016[/b]
[QUOTE=smurfy;49698062]FiveThirtyEight has Sanders with a 99% chance of winning on the Dem side, while for the GOP Trump has a 70% chance with Rubio in a distant second with 13%[/QUOTE]
If this happens, it will ripple through both time and space on magnitude.
That said... I wonder if there are any Australian betting agencies running odds on the NH Primary.
[QUOTE=smurfy;49698062]FiveThirtyEight has Sanders with a 99% chance of winning on the Dem side, while for the GOP Trump has a 70% chance with Rubio in a distant second with 13%[/QUOTE]
What did they say about Iowa
[QUOTE=Killer900;49698101]What did they say about Iowa[/QUOTE]
67 % Clinton
33 % Bernie
[url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/[/url]
Must feel bad knowing it eventuated to a statistical margin of error of 0.25%
[QUOTE=Killer900;49698101]What did they say about Iowa[/QUOTE]
Clinton with a 67% chance and Sanders on 33%, Trump with 46% and Cruz on 39%.
In Iowa though they projected the races to be really close:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/VtQLiul.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/6rQRPOs.png[/img]
Whereas this time it's like:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/3gvDNxL.png[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/83QOGdm.png[/img]
[QUOTE=smurfy;49698062]FiveThirtyEight has Sanders with a 99% chance of winning on the Dem side, while for the GOP Trump has a 70% chance with Rubio in a distant second with 13%[/QUOTE]
part of me kind of doubts if Trump can push through this since it feels like his whole charm is starting to run dry, but then again he did make another crazy statement only recently
come on sandeeeers
Come on!!!
[QUOTE=fruxodaily;49698128]part of me kind of doubts if Trump can push through this since it feels like his whole charm is starting to run dry, but then again he did make another crazy statement only recently[/QUOTE]
I think he'll win in NH because his only competition is Rubio and that fucking embarrassing showing at the debate had to have an effect.
I'm not sure if Rubio is going to pull through to second since Christie pointed out he was a robot.
This is going to be awesome.
[QUOTE=Durandal;49698186]I'm not sure if Rubio is going to pull through to second since Christie pointed out he was a robot.[/QUOTE]
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze1CSU9A2mI[/media]
Either he's a robot or he believes everyone is retarded so he has to repeat himself.
I think most people supported Trump ironically. Now that this is all getting too real he is starting to fall behind.
[QUOTE=Buck.;49698306]I think most people supported Trump ironically. Now that this is all getting too real he is starting to fall behind.[/QUOTE]
So now is the time to ironically support Ted Cruz?
Let's go trump!
[QUOTE=purvisdavid1;49698324]So now is the time to ironically support Ted Cruz?[/QUOTE]
Well it's not my fault the Republicans don't seem to have any valid candidates.
That makes me wonder, wouldn't it be better if the elections happened between the most popular candidates period, rather than 1 republican and 1 democrat. In that case the election could come down to two democrats if that's who is favoured.
[QUOTE=Buck.;49698390]Well it's not my fault the Republicans don't seem to have any valid candidates.
That makes me wonder, wouldn't it be better if the elections happened between the most popular candidates period, rather than 1 republican and 1 democrat. In that case the election could come down to two democrats if that's who is favoured.[/QUOTE]
That'd be interesting.
Sanders will win.
I'm highly sure Sanders has got New Hampshire in his bag, lookin' forward to the results.
As for repubs, please OH PLEASE Rubio win. He's second behind Trump, and I'm just hoping he wins...
[QUOTE=Rocko's;49698439]I'm highly sure Sanders has got New Hampshire in his bag, lookin' forward to the results.
As for repubs, please OH PLEASE Rubio win. He's second behind Trump, and I'm just hoping he wins...[/QUOTE]
Why? Not only is he a puppet/robot, but he got blown the fuck out of the water by Christie Creme. Do you really think he'll be able to handle any world leader ever?
Sanders will probably win on race demographics alone, however, here is a dissenting opinion on the delegate math, for the Hillary Clinton subreddit:
[quote]New Hampshire has 24 Delegates up for grabs tomorrow. Each of the two congressional district gets 8, and the other 8 are apportioned based on the statewide vote.
Heres the thing, delegates have 'trigger levels' at which they are allocated. The important part is this: any candidate receiving over 43.8% of the vote is allocated 4 of the 8 delegates. This means that Hillary could potentially lose by as much as 11.5% and still come out tied on delegates.
In order to get a 5-3 split of delegates, a candidate needs over 56.3% of the vote. This is potentially in Bernie's grasp, but he is not going to get an 6-2 split in any district, as that requires 68.8%, which is nigh on impossible.
So here is the split:
District 1: The most favorable to Sanders, large population of white LIberals. He has a good chance of winning 5-3 here.
District 2: More moderate, favorable to Hillary. She probably won't win it, but will likely come away with a 4-4 split.
Statewide: Tossup. If I were a betting man, I would say 11.5% is an even spread. Could go either 4-4 or 5-3. 538 estimates a 13 point margin, but even they themselves dont really trust that figure (They prefer picking winners, not margins)..
Why This Matters: Hillary is up 23-21 in pledged delegates (i.e. not super-delegates) following Iowa. If Hillary can hold the margin to within 11.5% in District 2, even if it is higher statewide, we will go into Nevada in a dead heat. If she can hold within the margin statewide, she holds onto her lead in the delegate count.
Forget 'momentum', forget 'media buzz', primaries are won on delegates, short and simple. If Hillary can get through Bernie Sanders 2 most demographically favorable states (excl Vermont) with a tie or even a slim lead in delegates, it looks very favorable for her.[/quote]
[url]https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/44qpv5/the_delegate_math_for_new_hampshire_and_why_its/[/url]
tl;dr: Delegates are handed out not entirely evenly; Hillary doesn't even need a 50% majority in some districts to go 50-50, she just needs 43.8%, which is within grasp for her.
That said, Bernie will still probably (99%) win. However, as a Clinton fan, I'd like to see her give him a run for his money
[editline]8th February 2016[/editline]
[QUOTE=Durandal;49698499]Why? Not only is he a puppet/robot, but he got blown the fuck out of the warter by Christie Creme. Do you really think he'll be able to handle any world leader ever?[/QUOTE]
It's not about wanting rubio as president; it's about not wanting Trump to win the primary. If trump wins the primary, it will give legitimacy to his hate speech in republican rhetoric.
Bernie has dragged Hillary far to the left, Trump is dragging the republicans far to the right.
Go Bernie, go Trump.
[QUOTE=Atlascore;49698546]Do you even know who Rubio is? You should just stop right now and go look him up, supporting him is almost as bad as supporting Trump, same thing with Cruz.[/QUOTE]
I think Rubio is a typical politician; he's part of the republican status quo's ongoing attempt to racially diversify the party and pander to latinos (since the white vote is gonna be gone by the 40s). I think when it comes to the republicans, I'd rather have Chris Christie than any of the other candidates, but if it's down to Cruz, Trump, and Rubio, I'd rather have Rubio since he and Cruz are essentially the same candidate, and I'd rather have anyone other than trump. At least Rubio doesn't say cryptically racist shit like Trump does.
However, as a Clinton supporter, part of me wants Trump to win the primaries so that the Republicans will go with a brokered deal and give it to Rubio or Cruz, forcing Trump to go 3rd party, splitting the vote, and giving the election to the democrats (Hillary or Sanders)
[QUOTE=Atlascore;49698596]That would never happen.
First of all, the Republican party absolutely [B]hates[/B] Cruz, even more than Trump, so suggesting Cruz would be part of any deal with them just shows you don't know anything about this stuff. On top of that it'd be political suicide to ignore the popular vote and hand off the nomination to anybody else, what you're suggesting would literally kill the GOP, which is exactly why it isn't going to happen because even they aren't that stupid.[/QUOTE]
Alright well to begin you don't have to be condescending, it doesn't speak well of you.
I really really doubt that the republicans hate Cruz more than Trump. The only argument that could be made for that is that they don't actually consider Trump a threat. I recognize that Status Quo republicans are at war with Tea partiers, but at the very least they're the same political party; Trump has no allegiance to the Republicans and I can't see him (nor could the republican establishment) representing Republican interests as president (which is what the republicans care about).
Sure, it's a stretch that they'd actually go for a brokered deal, but the republicans would prefer a republican in the white house to a conservative in the white house (of course, Rubio and Cruz are conservatives, but you get my meaning).
Donald Trump would shatter the republican party more than it already is if he were elected; he would have his own circle based on allegiance to him rather than status quo or tea party principles. Donald Trump is 100x more dangerous to the republican party than Cruz is.
Now, help me out here. People vote for a candidate from each side? It seems like people are voting for their favourite on both sides (From the split between Bernie and Clinton vs Trump and Cruz).
Or do people just place a single vote for all candidates? Like, which single person won the Iowa vote in the end?
[QUOTE=Daemon White;49698682]Now, help me out here. People vote for a candidate from each side? It seems like people are voting for their favourite on both sides (From the split between Bernie and Clinton vs Trump and Cruz).
Or do people just place a single vote for all candidates? Like, which single person won the Iowa vote in the end?[/QUOTE]
Also what happens if you lose the nomination? Can you still continue running as an independent?
[QUOTE=Daemon White;49698682]Now, help me out here. People vote for a candidate from each side? It seems like people are voting for their favourite on both sides (From the split between Bernie and Clinton vs Trump and Cruz).
Or do people just place a single vote for all candidates? Like, which single person won the Iowa vote in the end?[/QUOTE]
Pretty sure in New Hampshire if you're registered in one of the two major parties you have to vote in your party of choice's primary, but if you're registered independent you can vote in either one iirc.
[QUOTE=Buck.;49698711]Also what happens if you lose the nomination? Can you still continue running as an independent?[/QUOTE]
You can run third party but you would have a snowballs chance in hell of winning and would totally spoil the election. So lets say trump goes third party he'd almost certainly guarantee a democratic victory by pulling really far right people who would normally vote GOP away from GOP
[QUOTE=Buck.;49698711]Also what happens if you lose the nomination? Can you still continue running as an independent?[/QUOTE]
Third party people cost the election for their side; they split the vote on the right/left in two, giving the larger power to the more unified side. This happened in 1992. Though Ross Perot didn't actually win any electoral votes, he received 18% of the popular vote and spoiled the election for the incumbent, George HW Bush.
The fear for the republicans is that if Trump loses the Primary, he'll go 3rd party and spoil the election for the Republicans. Some conspiracy theorists have hypothesized that Trump made a deal with Clinton to spoil the republican election, since he's been documented in the past as being a fairly liberal person compared to what his rhetoric has been recently.
I can't see Sanders going 3rd party if he loses the primary
[QUOTE=Durandal;49698712]Pretty sure in New Hampshire if you're registered in one of the two major parties you have to vote in your party of choice's primary, but if you're registered independent you can vote in either one iirc.
You can run third party but you would have a snowballs chance in hell of winning and would totally spoil the election. So lets say trump goes third party he'd almost certainly guarantee a democratic victory by pulling really far right people who would normally vote GOP away from GOP[/QUOTE]
Oh god, what if Trump loses his nomination but then throws an anger tantrum and runs as third party anyway. However Hillary also wins the nomination by a narrow margin, and Bernie gets a bunch more cash from his supporters and goes "The hell with it, we're so close" and also runs independently. Now you have a four way election, all bets are off and perhaps you end up with a new strong party to rival republicans and the democrats. (as far as I know nothing is stopping USA from having many parties? It just normally been this way?)
Ah, a man can dream.
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