Le Pen is gaining in polls in first Run-off, Issues dividing the Left Candidates - Polidicks

[QUOTE]Marine Le Pen gained ground on her rivals for the French election as she benefits from concerns about security while other candidates trained their fire on independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron. Monday’s daily OpinionWay poll showed that first-round support for anti-euro candidate Le Pen rose 1 percentage point to 27 percent, with Macron and Republican Francois Fillon unchanged at 20 percent each. While no surveys so far have shown Le Pen even close to a victory in May’s run-off, she’s quickly narrowing the gap to her rivals. OpinionWay showed Macron would defeat Le Pen by 58 percent to 42 percent in the second round. His advantage has halved in less than two weeks. Le Pen is gaining from her tough stance on the disturbances that flared up across France last week during mostly peaceful protests against police brutality. The National Front leader is tapping into voters’ unease after more than 200 people were killed in terrorist attacks in just over two years and those sentiments were stirred up again this month when a soldier in the Louvre fired five shots at an assailant armed with a machete and crying “Allah Akbar.” [/QUOTE] Get Your shit together French left politicians [URL="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-20/le-pen-advances-in-french-polls-as-security-concerns-sway-voters-izef48iu"]https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-20/le-pen-advances-in-french-polls-as-security-concerns-sway-voters-izef48iu[/URL]

Make France Suck Again

Can Le Pen just take france out of the EU if she wins? Or would it have to go to referendum?

[QUOTE=Occlusion;51850066]Can Le Pen just take france out of the EU if she wins? Or would it have to go to referendum?[/QUOTE] referendum.

[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;51850073]referendum.[/QUOTE] Legal binding referendum?

All that matters is the second round, which Le Pen will almost certainly get crushed in.

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;51850084]All that matters is the second round, which Le Pen will almost certainly get crushed in.[/QUOTE] Nah, with the political atmosphere as it is in the world, she's going to win by the skin of her teeth.

Doesn't matter. Macron will beat her in the second round.

Jesus, France...please don't pull an us. Please. French Revolution, liberty, equality, fraternity and all? Keep the dream alive. #Make2017BetterThan2016

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;51850084]All that matters is the second round, which Le Pen will almost certainly get crushed in.[/QUOTE] Yeah no. The chances for her aren't good but it's not like it's anywhere near impossible lol.

pretty sure french republicans aren't left wing

don't assume she'll lose frenchies

[QUOTE=Lambeth;51850184]don't assume she'll lose frenchies[/QUOTE] we did that and we got Trump.

Le Pen is still looking like a loser overall, but Macron's second-round percentage is much lower than it was even a week ago. I think I'm in the "He'll probably win" camp, but if the trend continues then I don't think it's wise to take that as red.

with no sensible middle ground, folks are turning right and not left.

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;51850091]Doesn't matter. Macron will beat her in the second round.[/QUOTE] that is what people thought about Clinton vs. Trump. Frenchies, don't be naive and VOTE.

[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;51850091]Doesn't matter. Macron will beat her in the second round.[/QUOTE] Seems like a likely outcome [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002]looking back on the last time a Le Pen got this far[/url]. It takes a special kind of hatred to bring 82.2% of the voterbase against one specific candidate. And Chirac was already a rotten cunt at that point.

[QUOTE=Ganerumo;51850293]Seems like a likely outcome [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002]looking back on the last time a Le Pen got this far[/url]. It takes a special kind of hatred to bring 82.2% of the voterbase against one specific candidate. And Chirac was already a rotten cunt at that point.[/QUOTE] Problem is she is gaining people in which see the EU "Infringing on national sovereignty" and "Liberals wanting to make a lawless state, or implement sharia law" and my favorite "EU is a Trial balloon for a one world Communism order"

[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;51850304]Problem is she is gaining people in which see the EU "Infringing on national sovereignty" and "Liberals wanting to make a lawless state, or implement sharia law" and my favorite [B]"EU is a Trial balloon for a one world Communism order"[/B][/QUOTE] People in France don't have a bias against communism. France has the second largest number of Muslims in Western Europe, with 5 to 7% of the population being reportedly of this specific confession, so that's about as many voters she won't see. On top of this, and it's related to the previous part, the Le Pen family is [I]very[/I] unpopular among those with ancestry in Maghreb, because of the father's involvement in the Algerian War. There is a lot of controversy surrounding his involvement in the war, allegations of torture and execution of civilians that the local police tried to cover up, so on and so forth. Just to cite one example of the kind of shit that was found against him, a man who had accused Le Pen of having tortured and executed his father [url=http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2012/03/15/768x0/1669746_5_b575_le-poignard-de-jean-marie-le-pen_2b353c15ad02ffe9e3c16b97b86e5dcf.jpg]was in possession of a knife his father had managed to steal as evidence[/url], marked with Le Pen's name, and to add even more to the controversy, [url=http://www.wwiidaggers.com/28940.jpg]it's basically a Hitler Youths knife[/url]. Put simply, Le Pen's family is [I]not[/I] liked by many. Marine Le Pen's attempts to get away from her father have helped her a bit, but people aren't willing to forget the kind of shady shit her father was involved in. The fact she's been an open practitioner of good old fashioned nepotism, by promoting her own family members for political roles in different regions adds onto that.

What is the likelihood of France leaving the EU if it came to referendum?

She might have a chance of winning, I mean I don't want to assume anything anymore after Trump. However, I am still highly skeptical that French people would choose to leave the EU if there was a referendum. Le Pen might be anti-EU, but I don't think her popularity is as linked to anti-EU sentiment, doesn't feel that way anyway.

austria take two come on baby

[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51850204]with no sensible middle ground, folks are turning right and not left.[/QUOTE] huh? in the us we had hillary who was basically a neoliberal dream who lost in the end. Germany has merkel who is much of the same and doesn't have opinions, going with what experts and popular opinion tells her to think, and she's losing ground, and france has plenty of centrist parties who are all dead as fuck.

Make France Great Again

I am getting very tired of this macron meme and cannot wait for it to die. Last time centrists were even marginally relevant was 2007 and we're speaking of modem, an established party with an actual program which is as of today also taking part in the elections. I cannot wait for this assuming fuck to flop hilariously. With so many parties running for office there's a snowball's chance in hell for everyone to get their spot in the limelight

[QUOTE=Lolkork;51850275]Clinton had a 90% chance to win.[/QUOTE] Clinton did win. She had the majority of support among voters, hence why she defeated Trump by almost 3 million votes in the national popular vote. The problem is that the Electoral College stepped in and said, "Yeah, we know the people want her, and we know she decisively beat him... but fuck that, we're an archaic institution with the power to override this fact, and we say that Trump is the winner." I can't stress this enough, whether we're talking about the predictions of her winning or about people who go on the "X is why Trump won" bullshit rant (which is nothing more than a platform argument they use to push their own agendas): she [i]did[/i] win. The last time we had the Electoral College do this to us (to, once again, "elect" an unpopular Republican candidate) was when Gore defeated Bush by 543,000+ votes in 2000. It wasn't anywhere near a close race in 2016. [editline]20 February 2017[/editline] Le Pen must not be allowed to hold office. This is a woman who sought along with the rest of her party a $30 million loan from Russia to campaign, has repeatedly praised Putin in spite of his behavior towards critics of his regime and has denounced nations and people who have condemned him and the Russian government, is against the European Union and NATO... basically would be a disaster for not only France but the West in general. She must be prevented from holding power at whatever cost. I don't think she'll win, but the possibility that she will in spite of the odds [i]must always[/i] be considered, and preparations for what to do in the event that she does win must be made.

Make France Vichy Again

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;51850084]All that matters is the second round, which Le Pen will almost certainly get crushed in.[/QUOTE] Says increasingly nervous man for the 3rd time.

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;51850084]All that matters is the second round, which Le Pen will almost certainly get crushed in.[/QUOTE]While it doesn't seem likely she'll win, i'm not going to be too optimistic about it.

[QUOTE=Raidyr;51850387]What is the likelihood of France leaving the EU if it came to referendum?[/QUOTE] If the UK of all countries only left because of a very narrow margin then I don't see how a French leave referendum could win.