• Space X is attempting to land Falcon 9 on Jan 6th: 50% chance success
    125 replies, posted
[QUOTE]Elon Musk is starting off 2015 with a bang – or hopefully, a soft landing. On January 6, Musk’s company SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 rocket to the International Space Station. The launch itself is fairly unremarkable; SpaceX has had a contract with NASA for some time now to transport cargo to the ISS via unmanned rockets, as part of the Commercial Resupply Services program. What SpaceX will attempt to do after the launch is what makes the mission so exciting. The company will try to land the first stage of its Falcon rocket on a platform in the ocean -- a feat that has never been done before. If successful, the landing will be the first major step toward one of the holy grails of the space industry: reusable rockets. ... That target is an autonomous spaceport drone ship, meant to catch the landing rocket in the Atlantic Ocean. The ship’s landing platform is 300 by 100 feet, but it also comes with wings that can extend its width to 170 feet. The seaport itself isn’t anchored, but boasts powerful thrusters that will help it stay in place. Yet landing on such a small platform that isn’t completely stationary won’t be easy, and Musk estimates a 50 percent chance of success on January 6. Plus, the landing will occur after the first stage separates from the second stage -- the part of the rocket that will take the cargo capsule the rest of the way to the ISS. That means not all of the rocket will be saved, as the second stage will never be recovered. (However, Musk plans to recover the second stage in future launches.) [/QUOTE] The platform: [IMG]http://www.popsci.com/sites/popsci.com/files/styles/medium_1x_/public/autonomous_spaceport_drone_ship.jpg?itok=tjGv9Lh_[/IMG] [URL]http://www.popsci.com/spacex-will-try-land-one-its-rockets-next-week?dom=fb&src=SOC[/URL]
I really hope they succeed.
This is the full plan for the future: [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSF81yjVbJE[/media] They had a good year: [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcaBI_I0Td0[/media] The only thing we haven't seen any current work on is the reusable second stage. [editline]3rd January 2015[/editline] Second stage will be considerably harder given the fuel load, and the fact that it will be coming down from [I]actual[/I] orbit. Pad tests of the reusable Dragon 2's Superdracos will begin this year. So we'll be see that hopping around in the coming future like we have with the first stage. [editline]3rd January 2015[/editline] This is the onboard cam from their last test: [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQnR5fhCXkQ[/media] All it's missing is a hard surface under it.
"its like trying to hit a bullet, with another bullet, whilst riding a horse blindfolded" -scotty (2009) good thing the falcon-9 is a very smart bullet
[QUOTE=Sableye;46852533]"its like trying to hit a bullet, with another bullet, whilst riding a horse blindfolded" -scotty (2009) good thing the falcon-9 is a very smart bullet[/QUOTE] The platform is also an autonomous drone, which is believed to track the trajectory of the rocket to find where it needs to be. It's like a giant floating, multimillion dollar pong paddle and ball.
For such an undertaking, a 50% success chance is actually tremendously good. And it can only improve as the tech is further refined. [editline]4th January 2015[/editline] Can rockets not be used in addition to parachutes to slow the descent of a falling objects? They could attach parachutes to conserve fuel, and once they've got full control over the rate of descent, jettison the 'chutes at a low altitude and lower themselves the rest of the way.
[QUOTE=archangel125;46853391]For such an undertaking, a 50% success chance is actually tremendously good. And it can only improve as the tech is further refined. [editline]4th January 2015[/editline] Can rockets not be used in addition to parachutes to slow the descent of a falling objects? They could attach parachutes to conserve fuel, and once they've got full control over the rate of descent, jettison the 'chutes at a low altitude and lower themselves the rest of the way.[/QUOTE] Actually a chance of 50% can be interpreted as a completely unforseeable outcome, as this has never been attempted before.
[QUOTE=DrDevil;46853478]Actually a chance of 50% can be interpreted as a completely unforseeable outcome, as this has never been attempted before.[/QUOTE] Huh, good point. I assumed it was a calculated outcome, though.
[QUOTE=archangel125;46853391] Can rockets not be used in addition to parachutes to slow the descent of a falling objects? They could attach parachutes to conserve fuel, and once they've got full control over the rate of descent, jettison the 'chutes at a low altitude and lower themselves the rest of the way.[/QUOTE] A relatively bulky and un streamlined body of the rocket which will be mostly empty as the fuel has been spent and payload delivered will have quite low critical speed of it's own at the lower levels of atmosphere - it will slow down to just few hundred meters per second with it's natural friction, and slowing down the rest will take only slight farting with the engine to stop it entirely, as again, it's pretty much hollow husk at that point; extremely light. The energy saving of braking with a parachute is probably not worth the significantly higher vulnerability to air currents and instability during the descent.
They are essentially landing it on a football field.. That's impressive as fuck. C'mon SpaceX!
[QUOTE=OvB;46852492]The only thing we haven't seen any current work on is the reusable second stage. [editline]3rd January 2015[/editline] Second stage will be considerably harder given the fuel load, and the fact that it will be coming down from [I]actual[/I] orbit. Pad tests of the reusable Dragon 2's Superdracos will begin this year. So we'll be see that hopping around in the coming future like we have with the first stage.[/QUOTE] Elon said that they probably won't make a reusable second stage because the reentry systems would add too much mass and take away too much available payload mass. For geostationary transfer orbits (which a lot of their payloads go to) they wouldn't be able to offer a usable payload capacity. Their next gen rockets though, that's a different story.
Isn't every situation with 2 outcomes always have 50% chance? and that 50% increases or decreases as we get more information about the situation? Since it is gonna be success or not success, it is obvious that there is 50% chance, the question is why SpaceX don't have anything else to add to the equation to get more accurate prediction.
[QUOTE=cucumber;46855044]Isn't every situation with 2 outcomes always have 50% chance? and that 50% increases or decreases as we get more information about the situation? Since it is gonna be success or not success, it is obvious that there is 50% chance, the question is why SpaceX don't have anything else to add to the equation to get more accurate prediction.[/QUOTE] if I wanted to bang emma stone there's two possibilities, either I do or I don't it doesn't make it a 50% chance though
[QUOTE=Pelf;46854966]Elon said that they probably won't make a reusable second stage because the reentry systems would add too much mass and take away too much available payload mass. For geostationary transfer orbits (which a lot of their payloads go to) they wouldn't be able to offer a usable payload capacity. Their next gen rockets though, that's a different story.[/QUOTE] I haven't heard that before but I've had one other person tell me that, and others saying it's not true. To me, based on what elon made spacex to be, not having a reusable second stage would be a failure of one of their primary mission plans. [editline]4th January 2015[/editline] As it stands right now the customer can choose reusability or not. For GTO it would just have to be in expendable mode.
[QUOTE=OvB;46856217]I haven't heard that before but I've had one other person tell me that, and others saying it's not true. To me, based on what elon made spacex to be, not having a reusable second stage would be a failure of one of their primary mission plans. [editline]4th January 2015[/editline] As it stands right now the customer can choose reusability or not. For GTO it would just have to be in expendable mode.[/QUOTE] Musk has said they will get a reusable second stage, but it might not be for the Falcon 9. It's definitely a long ways off, probably something they'll have ready by the MCT launch vehicle.
[QUOTE=LordCrypto;46856000]if I wanted to bang emma stone there'[I][U]s[/U][/I] [B]ARE[/B] two possibilities, either I do or I don't it doesn't make it a 50% chance though[/QUOTE] If you already wanting to bang Emma Stone how there are 2 possibilities? You want it. It is 100%. The possibility of you banging Emma Stone is something else. TBH In your situation it is zero. To be a smartass first you have to be smart or you are just an ass. [highlight](User was banned for this post ("Shitposting / Derailing" - rilez))[/highlight]
[QUOTE=cucumber;46856680]If you already wanting to bang Emma Stone how there are 2 possibilities? You want it. It is 100%. The possibility of you banging Emma Stone is something else. TBH In your situation it is zero. To be a smartass first you have to be smart or you are just an ass.[/QUOTE] Arguing semantics and pointing out grammar errors doesn't make you smart or your argument right, it just makes you look like a twat.
[QUOTE=LarparNar;46856767]Arguing semantics and pointing out grammar errors doesn't make you smart or your argument right, it just makes you look like a twat.[/QUOTE] To quote: [I]To be a smartass first you have to be smart or you are just an ass.[/I] [editline]4th January 2015[/editline] Anyway all stupid posts aside, this is pretty awesome and I hope it works out.
thats an expensive coin flip
[QUOTE=St. Burke;46856916]thats an expensive coin flip[/QUOTE] Well considering the norm is loss at sea, it's actually not that expensive.
[QUOTE=OvB;46856931]Well considering the norm is loss at sea, it's actually not that expensive.[/QUOTE] nah man, i hear that if it lands in the water they have to kill it like a horse that broke its leg
Get the shotgun, pa...
so did it work
[QUOTE=En-Guage;46860019]so did it work[/QUOTE] Whole day away.
I c
I really wish there was a well funded public space program...
I wish all the nations around the world would take a percentage out of it's military and commit it to a public space agency, that or work together
or go full star trek and put all the military money into it... someday
World peace is obtained by all nations pooling their military money for space on the agreement that they all GTFO Earth and find their own planet.
I cannot wait to see this! Space-X makes meh happy.
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