• Op-Ed: B.E., Before Egypt. A.E., After Egypt.
    24 replies, posted
[img]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/09/16/opinion/Friedman_New/Friedman_New-articleInline.jpg[/img] [url]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/02/opinion/02friedman.html[/url] [quote=New York Times]By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN RAMALLAH, West Bank I’m meeting a retired Israeli general at a Tel Aviv hotel. As I take my seat, he begins the conversation with: “Well, everything we thought for the last 30 years is no longer relevant.” That pretty much sums up the disorienting sense of shock and awe that the popular uprising in Egypt has inflicted on the psyche of Israel’s establishment. The peace treaty with a stable Egypt was the unspoken foundation for every geopolitical and economic policy in Israel for the last 35 years, and now it’s gone. It’s as if Americans suddenly woke up and found both Mexico and Canada plunged into turmoil on the same day. “Everything that once anchored our world is now unmoored,” remarked Mark Heller, a Tel Aviv University strategist. “And it is happening right at a moment when nuclearization of the region hangs in the air.” This is a perilous time for Israel, and its anxiety is understandable. But I fear Israel could make its situation even more perilous if it succumbs to the argument one hears from a number of senior Israeli officials today that the events in Egypt prove that Israel can’t make a lasting peace with the Palestinians. It’s wrong and dangerous. To be sure, Hosni Mubarak, Israel’s longtime ally, deserves all the wrath being directed at him. The best time to make any big, hard decision is when you are at your maximum strength. You’ll always think and act more clearly. For the last 20 years, President Mubarak has had all the leverage he could ever want to truly reform Egypt’s economy and build a moderate, legitimate political center to fill the void between his authoritarian state and the Muslim Brotherhood. But Mubarak deliberately maintained the political vacuum between himself and the Islamists so that he could always tell the world, “It’s either me or them.” Now he is trying to reform in a panic with no leverage. Too late. But Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel is in danger of becoming the Mubarak of the peace process. Israel has never had more leverage vis-à-vis the Palestinians and never had more responsible Palestinian partners. But Netanyahu has found every excuse for not putting a peace plan on the table. The Americans know it. And thanks to the nasty job that Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV just did in releasing out of context all the Palestinian concessions — to embarrass the Palestinian leadership — it’s now obvious to all how far the Palestinians have come. No, I do not know if this Palestinian leadership has the fortitude to close a deal. But I do know this: Israel has an overwhelming interest in going the extra mile to test them. Why? With the leaders of both Egypt and Jordan scrambling to shuffle their governments in an effort to stay ahead of the street, two things can be said for sure: Whatever happens in the only two Arab states that have peace treaties with Israel, the moderate secularists who had a monopoly of power will be weaker and the previously confined Muslim Brotherhood will be stronger. How much remains to be seen. As such, it is virtually certain that the next Egyptian government will not have the patience or room that Mubarak did to maneuver with Israel. Same with the new Jordanian cabinet. Make no mistake: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has nothing to do with sparking the demonstrations in Egypt and Jordan, but Israeli-Palestinian relations will be impacted by the events in both countries. If Israel does not make a concerted effort to strike a deal with the Palestinians, the next Egyptian government will “have to distance itself from Israel because it will not have the stake in maintaining the close relationship that Mubarak had,” said Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster. With the big political changes in the region, “if Israel remains paranoid and messianic and greedy it will lose all its Arab friends.” To put it bluntly, if Israelis tell themselves that Egypt’s unrest proves why Israel cannot make peace with the Palestinian Authority, then they will be talking themselves into becoming an apartheid state — they will be talking themselves into permanently absorbing the West Bank and thereby laying the seeds for an Arab majority ruled by a Jewish minority between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. What the turmoil in Egypt also demonstrates is how much Israel is surrounded by a huge population of young Arabs and Muslims who have been living outside of history — insulated by oil and autocracy from the great global trends. But that’s over. “Today your legitimacy has to be based on what you deliver,” the Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, explained to me in his Ramallah office. “Gone are the days when you can say, ‘Deal with me because the other guys are worse.’ ” I had given up on Netanyahu’s cabinet and urged the U.S. to walk away. But that was B.E. — Before Egypt. Today, I believe President Obama should put his own peace plan on the table, bridging the Israeli and Palestinian positions, and demand that the two sides negotiate on it without any preconditions. It is vital for Israel’s future — at a time when there is already a global campaign to delegitimize the Jewish state — that it disentangle itself from the Arabs’ story as much as possible. There is a huge storm coming, Israel. Get out of the way. [/quote]
I don't know about you, but I simply can't see Egypt become an Islamic nation after so many successful years of secular government and with so many other religions there. [editline]4th February 2011[/editline] Though the situation with Israel may change for the worse.
Let's hope the next Egyptian dictator actually knows what to do.
[QUOTE=ASmellyOgre;27857181]I don't know about you, but I simply can't see Egypt become an Islamic nation after so many successful years of secular government and with so many other religions there.[/QUOTE] Define "successful years of secular government," lol :v:
The entire issue has me on edge. I like the fact that they have fought for their rights but the following events are going to concern me.
I think Israel's got other concerns at the moment that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process - namely, the possibility of an unfriendly, heavily-armed Egypt right next door. E: Also disagree that any following Egyptian government would need to distance itself from Israel. Egypt and Israeli ties weren't that huge, they simply weren't hostile, which was a rarity in the region.
[QUOTE=Dr_Funk;27857465]E: Also disagree that any following Egyptian government would need to distance itself from Israel. Egypt and Israeli ties weren't that huge, they simply weren't hostile, which was a rarity in the region.[/QUOTE] Are you serious? Egypt and Israeli ties were one of the defining political relationships of the Middle East. Egypt's been playing a huge role in keeping weapons and munitions out of the Palestinian territories.
[QUOTE=TH89;27857322]Define "successful years of secular government," lol :v:[/QUOTE] The parts that most people hated had nothing to do with the lack of a state religion, but more with the fact that they were under a less-than-competent dictatorship. At least that's how I've understood Egyptian politics. Tell me if I'm wrong.
[QUOTE=ASmellyOgre;27857643]The parts that most people hated had nothing to do with the lack of a state religion, but more with the fact that they were under a less-than-competent dictatorship. At least that's how I've understood Egyptian politics. Tell me if I'm wrong.[/QUOTE] In the past 5 years or so Egypt has become less secular, Christians have been persecuted and women have been treated worse, made to wear more clothing and follow Wahhabist laws (rapes have skyrocketed, incidentally). Plus, I think it's hard to call their government successful given the events of the past week.
^ Hence a large number of Coptic Christians support Mubarak. [QUOTE=TH89;27857556]Are you serious? Egypt and Israeli ties were one of the defining political relationships of the Middle East. Egypt's been playing a huge role in keeping weapons and munitions out of the Palestinian territories.[/QUOTE] And I can't see why any of this would change. Should a future Egyptian government maintain recognition of Israel's right of existence? Yes. Should a future Egyptian government maintain the blocking of weapons transfer into Gaza? Yes, because it's in their own best interest.
I really hope it turns out for the best, and all parties and people are given a fair vote.
[QUOTE=Dr_Funk;27857785]And I can't see why any of this would change. Should a future Egyptian government maintain recognition of Israel's right of existence? Yes. Should a future Egyptian government maintain the blocking of weapons transfer into Gaza? Yes, because it's in their own best interest.[/QUOTE] Will a future Egyptian government do those things? That depends entirely on who takes power.
[QUOTE=TH89;27857868]Will a future Egyptian government do those things? That depends entirely on who takes power.[/QUOTE] Is there any chance at all that Egypt's new government will be neutral towards both Israel and Palestine? I haven't been following it very closely, to be honest. I know the Muslim Brotherhood is vying for power and they seem kind of looney
The muslim bortherhood [editline]4th February 2011[/editline] You better watch out for those guys.
[QUOTE=POLOPOZOZO;27858130]The muslim bortherhood [editline]4th February 2011[/editline] You better watch out for those guys.[/QUOTE] They say when you kill someone, the Muslim Brotherhood comes to you in your sleep.
[QUOTE=TH89;27858313]They say when you kill someone, the Muslim Brotherhood comes to you in your sleep.[/QUOTE] And they wear black robes and hoods! Somebody took a picture of a secret meeting before they were killed, and it managed to be released to the public. Beware: [img]http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/incoming/article180732.ece/RESIZED/Small/burka.jpg[/img]
i doubt egypt is in any danger of being taken over by the muslim brotherhood. didn't they release a statement saying they would not put forward a candidate for president if/when mubarak stood down?
but guys glen beck said its all conected this is just the begining
this is the ARCHDUKE FERDINAND moment!!!!!
[quote]What the turmoil in Egypt also demonstrates is how much Israel is surrounded by a huge population of young Arabs and Muslims who have been living outside of history — insulated by oil and autocracy from the great global trends. But that’s over.[/quote] Horribly true, but if similar social reforms throughout the western world can be done in the Arab world, that would do a huge amount for bridging the cultural gap. If it happens when it'll be good for everyone. [QUOTE=Dr_Funk;27857465]I think Israel's got other concerns at the moment that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process - namely, the possibility of an unfriendly, heavily-armed Egypt right next door. E: Also disagree that any following Egyptian government would need to distance itself from Israel. Egypt and Israeli ties weren't that huge, they simply weren't hostile, which was a rarity in the region.[/QUOTE] Nah, even though Mubarak will be gone he isn't their only connection to Israel. The people are sick of war and the military has been cooperating with them for decades. Almost no-one in Egypt sees them as something to wage war against. It's unlikely they will be as friendly to Israel as Mubarak, but they will still keep the peace. [QUOTE=TH89;27857702]In the past 5 years or so Egypt has become less secular, Christians have been persecuted and women have been treated worse, made to wear more clothing and follow Wahhabist laws (rapes have skyrocketed, incidentally). Plus, I think it's hard to call their government successful given the events of the past week.[/QUOTE] A lot of laws and other policies put in by Mubarak were religiously discriminatory but generally the people are pretty secular. The protests going on in the transition are very secular and despite people having religious differences, none of that is promoted as the cause. A new Egyptian government is likely to reflect this secularism and Islamification won't be an issue. [QUOTE=Zeke129;27858107]Is there any chance at all that Egypt's new government will be neutral towards both Israel and Palestine? I haven't been following it very closely, to be honest. I know the Muslim Brotherhood is vying for power and they seem kind of looney[/QUOTE] Nah, the Muslim Brotherhood is actually pretty cool. They are more relaxed and peaceful than they are made out to be and seem to be just a moderate Muslim denomination simply repressed by Mubarak because they opposed him.
Muslim Brotherhood's not cool, man. They've already called for Egyptians to prepare for "a war with Israel", which shows just how radical they are - they're not moderates. MB is really one extreme, with Mubarak as the other. Ideally, neither are in control - rather, Egypt would be ruled by a complete moderate, secular party, similar to how Turkey was.
[QUOTE=Dr_Funk;27861540]Muslim Brotherhood's not cool, man. They've already called for Egyptians to prepare for "a war with Israel", which shows just how radical they are - they're not moderates. MB is really one extreme, with Mubarak as the other. Ideally, neither are in control - rather, Egypt would be ruled by a complete moderate, secular party, similar to how Turkey was.[/QUOTE] source? i was under the impression that a lot of the crap about the muslim bros was over exaggerated by mubarak to justify his dictatorship to the west
[QUOTE=Lachz0r;27861571]source? i was under the impression that a lot of the crap about the muslim bros was over exaggerated by mubarak to justify his dictatorship to the west[/QUOTE] Here: [url]http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130[/url]
[QUOTE=Dr_Funk;27861750]Here: [url]http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130[/url][/QUOTE] eh i don't think what he said is as bad as you make it out to be. i doubt they're going to get into power anyway
This is very interesting. I have been keeping a close eye on the situation there because I am going to be living in Israel in September.
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