[img]http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/432x6001.jpg[/img]
[i]Hello comrades. Today I inform you that we will be moving Wednesdays to Mondays, which now means Wednesday will now take place on Monday. However, since today is Friday, this doesn't matter in the slightest.[/i]
[quote]First, according to recent data, there was a sharp drop in the amount of U.S. government bonds the Fed holds for foreign accounts, from $3.02 trillion in December to $2.97 trillion by Feb. 26. Next, the amount went from $2.95 trillion on March 5 to about $2.85 trillion on March 12, a decline of roughly $104 billion in just one week.
Taken together, the Fed’s foreign account holdings fell by 3.5 percent, or $118 billion in the span of just two weeks, putting its total foreign Treasury holdings at a 15-month low, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The drop would seem to bolster earlier fears that Russia, along with allies like China, could be gearing up for an economic war that could see the U.S. financial system crippled, as noted earlier on TheBlaze TV’s For the Record and by this site as far back as 2011.
See, rather than a decline, the Fed’s foreign account holdings are expected to increase over time.
As the U.S. runs deficits, it creates billions of government bonds every year, the Daily Beast noted, and foreign banks have in the past reliably bought up this debt. In fact, in 2013 alone, the aggregate amount of Treasury securities held by foreign banks increased from $2.88 trillion to $3.02 trillion.
That’s an increase of approximately $130 billion.
But the past few weeks have seen a sharp and unprecedented decline. It’s important to note that the drop in the Fed’s holdings comes at a time when Western power have sanctioned Russia over its recent action in Ukraine and Crimea.[/quote]
[url]http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/03/20/has-russia-been-dumping-over-a-billion-in-u-s-govt-bonds/#[/url]
Cold war 2.0 coming soon to a planet near you!
you wouldn't think that china would actually want to cripple the US dollar in an economic war...
this analysis makes me dubious ??
Well fuck
[QUOTE=Mechanical43;44305744]you wouldn't think that china would actually want to cripple the US dollar in an economic war...
this analysis makes me dubious ??[/QUOTE]
Was thinking the same. As a matter of fact, Michelle Obama and her kids arrived to China like 12 hours ago on a week long official visit to strengthen relations.
[url]http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/20/politics/michelle-obama-china/[/url]
Good thing I haven't bonded with any Russian people, I'd hate to lose a friend.
This article smells fishy. It claims Russia has been shifting large amounts of bonds months ago:
[quote="Article"]
Still, it’s worth pointing out that if Russia is indeed responsible of for all the bond activity, and it has been shifting bonds offshore, it started doing this as far back as December, a few months before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.[/quote]
Yet the US National Treasury reports only increases in bond holdings by China and very (relatively speaking) small drops in Russian holding of bonds since December of last year probably due to the ongoing situation.
[QUOTE=Swebonny;44305804]Was thinking the same. As a matter of fact, Michelle Obama and her kids arrived to China like 12 hours ago on a week long official visit to strengthen relations.
[url]http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/20/politics/michelle-obama-china/[/url][/QUOTE]
Could their visit to strengthen relations be due to china being an ally of Russia? Like a move to try and get china to go against Russia as well?
[QUOTE=WitheredGryphon;44305899]This article smells fishy. It claims Russia has been shifting large amounts of bonds months ago:
Yet the US National Treasury reports only increases in bond holdings by China and very (relatively speaking) small drops in Russian holding of bonds since December of last year probably due to the ongoing situation.[/QUOTE]
Source?
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;44305974]Could their visit to strengthen relations be due to china being an ally of Russia? Like a move to try and get china to go against Russia as well?
Source?[/QUOTE]
Here:
[url="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt"]US National Treasury Foreign Holders Report[/url]
[editline]Edited:[/editline]
Also can anyone find in that [url="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/"]article's source[/url] where it reports this drop in $100 billion? I'm having a hard time finding it (let alone reading it).
[editline]Edited:[/editline]
Apparently this happened almost a week and a half ago so that's why.
[QUOTE=WitheredGryphon;44306026]Here:
[url="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt"]US National Treasury Foreign Holders Report[/url]
[editline]Edited:[/editline]
Also can anyone find in that [url="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/"]article's source[/url] where it reports this drop in $100 billion? I'm having a hard time finding it (let alone reading it).[/QUOTE]
I cant read it either.
I think they may have confused the natural fluctuation back in december/january for bond shifting.
I would like to see a chart like this, but a recent one before I make a decision.
Wouldn't this actually be a good thing? Bonds are debt, right? If he sells them off(presumably at a loss) isn't that our gain?
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;44306143]I cant read it either.
I think they may have confused the natural fluctuation back in december/january for bond shifting.
I would like to see a chart like this, but a recent one before I make a decision.[/QUOTE]
It's largely speculation (and by that I mean this is all speculation), but [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/nobody-sold-100-billion-of-treasuries-2014-3"]BusinessInsider[/url] brought up a very good point:
[quote="Business Insider"]For example, the Central Bank of Russia — which has been in the spotlight due to escalating military tensions in Ukraine and has thus seriously underperformed against other EMs as of late — only bought 154.97 billion rubles in the week ended March 12.
At an average exchange rate of 36.35 rubles to the dollar over that time period, the CBR's intervention amounted to about $4.3 billion — leaving more than $100 billion of the drop in Fed custody holdings unaccounted for.[/quote]
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;44305974]Could their visit to strengthen relations be due to china being an ally of Russia? Like a move to try and get china to go against Russia as well?
Source?[/QUOTE]
remember china is out soley for themselves, they aren't prepaired to start a war with the U.S. or get on the U.S.'s bad side in this conflict, in the recent vote in the U.N. they even abstained from the procedures, a major indicator that they want to stay out of this.
Oh and for anyone wondering on what effect this will have, BofAML said this according to BI as well:
[quote]A mere shift in custodians should not have any impact on yields in the Treasury market, a consistent move out of the New York Fed merely diminishes the reliability of this indicator as a high frequency source for foreign official demand.[/quote]
Meaning we can just no longer rely on Russia as a foreign source for "official demand".
-snip-
[QUOTE=sltungle;44305698]Cold war 2.0 coming soon to a planet near you![/QUOTE]
I've always felt the Cold War never ended when the Soviet Union collapsed
So when do we consider this a new Cold War?
[QUOTE=Explosions;44306513]So when do we consider this a new Cold War?[/QUOTE]
Did it ever truly end?
[QUOTE=Jrose14;44306545]Did it ever truly end?[/QUOTE]
Yes.
nop
the big bear just went into hibernation, waiting for the hunter to grow weary and sell his gun.
[QUOTE=fruxodaily;44306395]I've always felt the Cold War never ended when the Soviet Union collapsed[/QUOTE]
The cold war just thawed for a little while.
I feel somewhat worried, moreso than before simply because it seems to be getting more and more tense as the day goes by
If they piss off US investors too much this could destroy the Russian economy to a point it hasn't seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Seriously, they're already losing billions, this isn't a good idea.
[editline]21st March 2014[/editline]
Fucking strongman politics
[QUOTE=Ruski v2.0;44306752]nop
the big bear just went into hibernation, waiting for the hunter to grow weary and sell his gun.[/QUOTE]
That is an awesome quote, and very true.
This crisis is good for China, it lessens any US presence in their vicinity.
[QUOTE=frozensoda;44306158]Wouldn't this actually be a good thing? Bonds are debt, right? If he sells them off(presumably at a loss) isn't that our gain?[/QUOTE]
No? It looks like Russia moved it's holdings away from the federal reserve, to somewhere else. That's as much as I understand, but it doesn't look like it helps you in any way.
[QUOTE=laserguided;44307295]This crisis is good for China, it lessens any US presence in their vicinity.[/QUOTE]
It does sort of represent a re-focusing, doesn't it?
[QUOTE=Coppermoss;44306921]That is an awesome quote, and very true.[/QUOTE]
except the hunter just sold a few bullets recently, the american army is still massive and same goes with NATO, especially if sweden joins in.
i hate this week
China will always be closer to the US for a few reasons, politically.
There's a lot of political and territorial animosity between China and Russia which doesn't exist between us. We are also a larger participant in China's economy, and they hold more stake in seeing a strong US Dollar than a strong Ruble.
It's true that BRICK exists (Brazil-Russia-India-China-Korea), the trade pact analogous to the first steps of the EU (a steel conglomerate) but I doubt it will ultimately spell a stronger economic position for Russia. I feel that China will just profit by playing both sides against the center.
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