Hungarian Referendum on Migrant Quotas: 98% Vote No, Turnout Still Below Validity Threshold
39 replies, posted
[quote]An overwhelming majority of Hungarians who voted in Sunday's referendum rejected the European Union's migrant quotas as Prime Minister Viktor Orban had urged, but the estimated turnout of 45 percent will not be enough to make the vote valid.
Senior politicians from Orban's ruling Fidesz party declared victory shortly after voting finished at 1.00 p.m. ET, citing exit polls which they said showed 95 percent of Hungarian voters, or more than 3 million people, had rejected the quotas.
A minimum turnout of 50 percent of eligible voters casting a valid vote was needed for the vote to be valid. An invalid referendum could diminish Orban's ability to exert pressure on Brussels to change its migration policies.
"Based on these data we can rightfully say that today has brought a sweeping victory for all those who reject the forced resettlement (of migrants) ... and for those who believe that the foundations of a strong EU can only be strong nations," Fidesz lawmaker and the party's vice chairman Gergely Gulyas told a news conference.[/quote]
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3?il=0[/url]
Poll data: [url]http://valasztas.hu/hu/ref2016/1154/1154_0_index.html[/url]
[QUOTE]Results with 99,71% of votes counted:
Yes: 1,70 % 55 790
No: 98,30 % 3 226 098
Invalid: 6,33 % 221 787 (of all votes)
Turnout: 43,33 % 3 281 888 [/QUOTE]
[B]Why is the number no/yes votes so high/low?[/B]
The reason for the huge difference is that while the campaign on the no side was full-blown for quite a few months now, the opposition just took their stances recently, campaining for staying at home/invalid votes instead of voting yes, in a much modest way. Otherwise a major win by no votes was expected from previous polls, as it's a very unpopular subject even with oppostion voters.
[QUOTE]Support by parties (seats in Assembly):
Fidesz/KDNP (131): no
MSZP (29): stay at home
Jobbik (24): no
LMP (5): up to voters
small left-wing parties (9): boycott, except for MLP which supported yes[/QUOTE]
[B]Why is the number of invalid votes so high?[/B]
The largest campaign beside Fidesz's no campaign was done by MKKP (Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party), a joke party which encouraged invalid voting by various means.
[B]What about the turnout?[/B]
It's about 10% lower than the past average of Hungarian referendums, comparable to the EU membership turnout. The number was expected to be lower because of the stance of the opposition.
[B]What happens now?[/B]
The parliament is not binded to make a new law/modify the constitution, although the PM announced they will make proposals.
[B]What do the invalid votes look like?[/B]
Like this:
[t]http://4cdn.hu/kraken/image/upload/s--T0UJzALN--/6v10k06k3pA2tkX7s.jpeg[/t][t]http://4cdn.hu/kraken/image/upload/s--choLzWLa--/6v10yErSx8PFqQVls.jpeg[/t][t]http://4cdn.hu/kraken/image/upload/s--SuhU8ZST--/c_limit,w_1160/6v0r63S4m6qmCu9gs.jpeg[/t][t]http://kep.cdn.indexvas.hu/1/0/1282/12825/128259/12825914_be8172dadce99a790e7014f461efae27_wm.jpg[/t][t]http://kep.cdn.indexvas.hu/1/0/1282/12825/128259/12825930_d4ce75015eac3e298cd0fb196ab865df_wm.jpg[/t][t]http://kep.cdn.indexvas.hu/1/0/1282/12824/128248/12824868_c8a1d6d3c21a06b240554f06b4318b20_wm.jpg[/t]
LOL "I vote for FAZE." "#quickscopepro" XD
I honestly laughed at what they wrote, specifically the pokeballs as "Igen" and "Nem" (that I know is Yes and no, luckily I do remember a few Hungarian).
P.s. Gabe Newell for President.
I'm confused. Why stay at home? Is this just to protest the referendum and try to sink it that way, or are there other issues here at play?
[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51142065]I'm confused. Why stay at home? Is this just to protest the referendum and try to sink it that way, or are there other issues here at play?[/QUOTE]
The parties that preferred this called the voting "fake" and going against EU. Even saying "Don't leave Europe! Stay home!" on ads that appeared in the last weeks.
[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51142065]I'm confused. Why stay at home? Is this just to protest the referendum and try to sink it that way, or are there other issues here at play?[/QUOTE]
This was the safest option for the opposition. If they had campaigned for yes, the only thing they'd have achieved was to make the referendum valid and lose some of their voters, since it's a very divisive subject even with opposition supporters.
[QUOTE=Kecske;51142141]This was the safest option for the opposition. If they had campaigned for yes, the only thing they'd have achieved was to make the referendum valid and lose some of their voters, since it's a very divisive subject even with opposition supporters.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=gutshotmann;51142120]The parties that preferred this called the voting "fake" and going against EU. Even saying "Don't leave Europe! Stay home!" on ads that appeared in the last weeks.[/QUOTE]
I see. Will there be another referendum then? If so, will this issue become even more bitter for Hungry?
I've heard there was a change to the constitution a few years ago that caused some bitterness as well. Has that influenced the current situation?
I know that some opposition parties actively boycotted the referendum, but is the <50% turnout a surprise?
[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51142221]I see. Will there be another referendum then? If so, will this issue become even more bitter for Hungry?
I've heard there was a change to the constitution a few years ago that caused some bitterness as well. Has that influenced the current situation?[/QUOTE]
There won't be another, the current one didn't have any major stakes either, since the current government is able to make amendments of the constitution because of their two-thirds majority powers.
The point of all this was to give some kind of backing to it, and to have have something they can communicate to the EU.
Whether Fidesz succeeded in that, well success can be defined in many ways.
But yeah, think about this whole thing like a big, kinda expensive census, it wasn't really more than that.
[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51142065]I'm confused. Why stay at home? Is this just to protest the referendum and try to sink it that way, or are there other issues here at play?[/QUOTE]
It's an extremely sleezy tactic.
Instead of just voting and letting the numbers speak for themselves, it's a move to just disqualify the entire vote.
Kinda reminds me of here in the Netherlands where everyone is bitching 24/7 about the government but when it is time to vote people just stay home to continue complaining
[QUOTE=darth-veger;51142319]Kinda reminds me of here in the Netherlands where everyone is bitching 24/7 about the government but when it is time to vote people just stay home to continue complaining[/QUOTE]
I don't see how that applies here. This is parties encouraging people not to vote in order to invalidate the referendum entirely.
wish the same applied here to prime ministerial elections :v:
less than 50% voter turnout pretty much every election lmao
Wow, you guys have a referendum turnout validity limit? We can enact a referendum if like 5 people cast a vote and everyone else spends the day laughing at them.
I love how one guy voted for Trump.
[QUOTE=Cructo;51143018]So, what happens? New referendum or the EU will force Hungary to take in migrants?[/QUOTE]
They cant really force Hungary to do shit. The EU has no standing military, their only weapon is some pitiful economic sanctions and strongly written letters.
If Hungary doesnt want refugees, then theyre not gonna get them. They did the smart thing and didnt let any in in the first place.
i love the integration by parts vote, but seriously invalidating your vote is a stupid thing, just vote yes or no
Turnout thresholds are kind of flawed; if more people had voted Yes, then No would have won
[QUOTE=Sableye;51143813]i love the integration by parts vote, but seriously invalidating your vote is a stupid thing, just vote yes or no[/QUOTE]
That ain't integration by parts matey, that's just integration of the sum of two functions. P. simple stuff.
[QUOTE=Sableye;51143813]i love the integration by parts vote, but seriously invalidating your vote is a stupid thing, just vote yes or no[/QUOTE]
Let'a say I'm a Yes voter. I know the No vote is going to win, that's how the political situation in the country is. I also know that if people like me vote Yes we will validate the vote. Why the hell would I vote then? What purpose is served?
[QUOTE=TestECull;51142946]I love how one guy voted for Trump.[/QUOTE]
Huh? He just drew a monkey on his card.
:v:
[QUOTE=cecilbdemodded;51147350]Let'a say I'm a Yes voter. I know the No vote is going to win, that's how the political situation in the country is. I also know that if people like me vote Yes we will validate the vote. Why the hell would I vote then? What purpose is served?[/QUOTE]
What purpose is served is that youre in the minority in your country. The YES voters just took their ball and went home. If their side wanted to convince the NO voters, then they should have done a better job of campaigning.
This reminds me a lot of US politicians letting the government get shut down a few years ago because they didnt get their way.
[QUOTE=Cyke Lon bee;51148621]What purpose is served is that youre in the minority in your country. The YES voters just took their ball and went home. If their side wanted to convince the NO voters, then they should have done a better job of campaigning.
This reminds me a lot of US politicians letting the government get shut down a few years ago because they didnt get their way.[/QUOTE]
Voters and politicians are two different groups. Government officials have the job of keeping the government functioning, so it's inexcusable for them to pull actions like that. The people can vote or not vote as they please.
If this was a poll then it would be fairly conclusive, it's obvious what the majority of Hungarians want.
[QUOTE=karlosfandango;51152301]If this was a poll then it would be fairly conclusive, it's obvious what the majority of Hungarians want.[/QUOTE]
don't forget that the opposition encouraged a no vote so the vote wouldn't reach the threshold. So yeah it'd be the majority, but not 98%
[QUOTE=Smooth Jazz;51152255][IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE]
Man, i wish canadian goverment forums had Motorhead's aesthetic too. What a font choice
[QUOTE=cecilbdemodded;51152212]Voters and politicians are two different groups. Government officials have the job of keeping the government functioning, so it's inexcusable for them to pull actions like that. The people can vote or not vote as they please.[/QUOTE]
Yea actually its kind of a citizens right [i]and [/i] duty to vote.
If people dont vote, then their voice isnt heard. So by all rights, 98% of the Hungarian populace doesnt want anything to do with the refugees or immigrants.
When it comes to politics, the only voice from an individual that actually means anything is the vote they cast.
This is not true and this story proves it. Not voting caused the vote to be invalid, which is the outcome desired by the people who did not vote. They 'won' by not voting, in effect they voted for what they wanted by not voting.
Oh shut the fuck up with the people who didn't vote won.
They fucking won by winning with a sleezy tactic that means uninformed/non-motivated people basically get lumped in with them for free.
Those are the people who truly won, the people who don't commit to democracy.
[QUOTE=cecilbdemodded;51154016]This is not true and this story proves it. Not voting caused the vote to be invalid, which is the outcome desired by the people who did not vote. They 'won' by not voting, in effect they voted for what they wanted by not voting.[/QUOTE]
that's like saying you can beat the financial system by robbing a bank
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