[quote]China’s response to news of the North Korean firing of dozens of rounds of artillery at a South Korean island has been cautious so far, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying Tuesday that Beijing had “noticed the reports” and was “concerned about the issue.”
With smoke still rising over Yeonpyeong island, no one expects China or any other country to stray beyond the bounds of diplomatic prudence. But how China responds—or, even more fundamentally, how long it takes China to respond—will be a central focus of global attention once the smoke finally clears.
The last time North Korean aggression led to South Korean bloodshed—the sinking of a South Korean patrol ship, the Cheonan, in March, which an international investigation blamed on Pyongyang–China remained tongue-tied, failing to publicly express condolences for almost a month. That silence flustered, and ultimately frustrated, regional neighbors who look to China to keep North Korea from running too far off the rails.
North Korea’s military misadventures put China in a difficult position. Besides being Pyongyang’s only ally of consequence, Beijing has a vested interest in supporting the North Korean regime, the collapse of which could send millions of North Korean refugees flooding into China.
At the same time, China has increasingly pushed to be seen as the region’s dominant peace keeper and power broker—a role that requires it to calm nerves made jittery by North Korea’s occasional outbursts.
Those competing pressures are nowhere more apparent than in the currently stalled Six-Party Talks, originally initiated by China with the aim of dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The desire to lure countries back to those talks motivates most of China’s diplomatic decision making in the region, says John Delury, assistant professor at Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies.
“They’ve been pretty consistently pushing–in this very gentle Chinese way–to get everybody back to the table,” Mr. Delury tells China Real Time. “They’re implacable in that drive.”
China has yet to accept the results of an investigation by South Korean, U.S., U.K. and other experts that found the Cheonan had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo, although it did concede in July to a UN Security Council statement that condemned the attack (without directly blaming North Korea).
The difficulty for China in this case: Tuesday’s exchange of fire took place above water, in full view of military satellites and TV cameras.
Absent Cheonan-level ambiguity, China would seem to face added pressure to say something substantive about the artillery attacks, and to say it reasonably soon.
“I would expect this goes quickly to the U.N. Security Council,” Mr. Delury says. “So China doesn’t have the time to use the usual delay and water-down techniques.”
That said, the Tuesday evening news broadcast of state-run flagship news channel CCTV-1–which led by citing official North Korean media as saying South Korea fired first–suggests leaders in Beijing may yet try to leverage uncertainty to justify reticence.
In the meantime, one reader discussing the attacks on the popular Voice of China bulletin board, wrote what we imagine at least a few of China’s leaders are thinking: “There’s nothing good in this fight for China — North Korea is insane.”[/quote]
[url]http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/11/23/north-korean-attack-how-will-china-react/?mod=e2tw[/url]
Things are pretty serious now.
They won't help North Korea. They've got too much tied up in western trade to help some tinpot backwater nation that does nothing but annoy China.
[quote]Beijing had “noticed the reports” and was “concerned about the issue.”[/quote]Lol. Must be Chinese politics-talk for "we don't give a flying fuck."
[QUOTE=MrEndangered;26246446]They won't help North Korea. They've got too much tied up in western trade to help some tinpot backwater nation that does nothing but annoy China.[/QUOTE]
They won't help NK, but... will they help the west in any case as well?
Also, Warhol got banned? When/where?
nothing at all
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;26246533]They won't help NK, but... will they help the west in any case as well?
Also, Warhol got banned? When/where?[/QUOTE]
I doubt it. They'll probably remain neutral on the matter, or atleast 'mildly concerned'.
And for Warhol: [url]http://www.facepunch.com/threads/1028471-TSA-forces-breast-cancer-survivor-and-flight-attendant-to-whip-out-prosthetic-breast/page2[/url]
[QUOTE=MrEndangered;26246556]I doubt it. They'll probably remain neutral on the matter, or atleast 'mildly concerned'.
And for Warhol: [url]http://www.facepunch.com/threads/102...c-breast/page2[/url][/QUOTE]
War right on their doorstep and only "mildy concerned"? A bit of a stretch, but probably.
404 Not Found :frown:
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;26246565]War right on their doorstep and only "mildy concerned"? A bit of a stretch, but probably.
404 Not Found :frown:[/QUOTE]
I think they'll be uncomfortable with a US-allied united Korea being on their doorstep. But that's if S.Korea wins a war and unifies it. That's a debate for the future.
Aww the hell? Gunfox :argh:
Calm down.
Nothing will happen to the rest of the world.
[QUOTE=MrEndangered;26246599]I think they'll be uncomfortable with a US-allied united Korea being on their doorstep. But that's if S.Korea wins a war and unifies it. That's a debate for the future.
Aww the hell? Gunfox :argh:[/QUOTE]Your link was broken. It has 3 dots in the link
[QUOTE=starpluck;26246764]Your link was broken. It has 3 dots in the link[/QUOTE]
Oh, I'm utterly dumb. Thanks Starpluck.
[url]http://www.facepunch.com/threads/1028471-TSA-forces-breast-cancer-survivor-and-flight-attendant-to-whip-out-prosthetic-breast/page2[/url]
NK's dick is waving incredibly close to the rest of the world's face. Only a matter of time before someone retaliates.
Also, judging by those posts, Warhol deserved it.
[QUOTE=Disgruntled;26247122]NK's dick is waving incredibly close to the rest of the world's face. Only a matter of time before someone retaliates.
Also, judging by those posts, Warhol deserved it.[/QUOTE]
I'm hoping their government collapses way before then, but you're probably right.
But he's a pretty cool guy, and contributes alot to ITN.
The only thing that has kept the USA and South Korea from taking North Korea has been China. If China stopped backing North Korea the regime would fall in a heartbeat.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247651]The only thing that has kept the USA and South Korea from taking North Korea has been China. If China stopped backing North Korea the regime would fall in a heartbeat.[/QUOTE]
China backing NK? What kind of crack are you smoking? NK is the zit on China's ass.
[QUOTE=faze;26247669]China backing NK? What kind of crack are you smoking? NK is the zit on China's ass.[/QUOTE]
China's backed NK since they got involved in the Korean War. It is NK's only ally.
China only keeps Best Korea alive because they don't want the Best Koreans flooding into their country.
I'm pretty sure China said they wanted nothing to do with this earlier, either when they were testing nukes or when they sunk the South Korean ship. It's nice to know.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247729]China's backed NK since they got involved in the Korean War. It is NK's only ally.[/QUOTE]
They are most certainly [B]not[/B] allies.
[QUOTE=MegaJohnny;26247747]I'm pretty sure China said they wanted nothing to do with this earlier, either when they were testing nukes or when they sunk the South Korean ship. It's nice to know.[/QUOTE]
They said they had no comment on this particular case.
[QUOTE=faze;26247752]They are most certainly [B]not[/B] allies.[/QUOTE]
They most certainly are allies. The only trading that gets done is between the two, and China has deals to bring defectors from NK back into the country. China backs them with their military as well, that's called an alliance.
[editline]23rd November 2010[/editline]
[QUOTE=MegaJohnny;26247747]I'm pretty sure China said they wanted nothing to do with this earlier, either when they were testing nukes or when they sunk the South Korean ship. It's nice to know.[/QUOTE]
Yea but saying they want nothing to do with it doesn't mean anything if war breaks out.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247772]They most certainly are allies. The only trading that gets done is between the two, and China has deals to bring defectors from NK back into the country. China backs them with their military as well, that's called an alliance.[/QUOTE]
Again, China only keeps Best Korea alive because they don't want the Best Koreans flooding into their country.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247772]They most certainly are allies. The only trading that gets done is between the two, and China has deals to bring defectors from NK back into the country. China backs them with their military as well, that's called an alliance.[/QUOTE]
[citation needed]
[QUOTE=Slacker101;26247785]Again, China only keeps Best Korea alive because they don't want the Best Koreans flooding into their country.[/QUOTE]
So? That doesn't change the fact China has an interest in keeping that insane midget(Kim) alive.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247798]So? That doesn't change the fact China has an interest in keeping that insane midget(Kim) alive.[/QUOTE]
But it justifies the reason, and also the fact that it's not a true alliance. They will not back NK in a war. Not in their political interest.
[QUOTE=faze;26247797][citation needed][/QUOTE]
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#China_intervenes_.28October_.E2.80.93_December_1950.29[/url]
[url]http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html#p2[/url]
[editline]23rd November 2010[/editline]
[QUOTE=faze;26247807]But it justifies the reason, and also the fact that it's not a true alliance. They will not back NK in a war. Not in their political interest.[/QUOTE]
Yea. They. Will. They. Are. The. Reason. NK. Exists.
Get that through your head, they are allies, very strong allies.
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247822][url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#China_intervenes_.28October_.E2.80.93_December_1950.29[/url]
[url]http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html#p2[/url]
[editline]23rd November 2010[/editline]
Yea. They. Will. They. Are. The. Reason. NK. Exists.
Get that through your head, they are allies, very strong allies.[/QUOTE]
Wikipedia link has no relavence, all info is from ~1950. The other link has proof that China has pretty much had enough of NK's shit.
[QUOTE=faze;26247847]Wikipedia link has no relavence, all info is from ~1950. The other link has proof that China has pretty much had enough of NK's shit.[/QUOTE]
[quote]
And even though China may be angry at North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, analysts say it will avoid moves that could cause a sudden collapse of the regime. Given the competition for influence in preparation for the eventual passing of a physically weak Kim Jong-Il, China may feel even more restrained from pressuring North Korea for fear of alienating a future power base.
But Asian military affairs expert Andrew Scobell writes, "No action by China should be ruled out where North Korea is concerned." According to Scobell, Beijing might stop propping up Pyongyang and [URL="http://www.cfr.org/publication/16496/"]allow North Korea to fail[/URL] if it believed a unified Korea under Seoul would be more favorably disposed toward Beijing. A January 2008 report by the [URL="http://csis.org/"]Center for Strategic and International Studies[/URL] and the [URL="http://www.usip.org/"]U.S. Institute of Peace[/URL], two Washington-based think tanks, says [URL="http://www.usip.org/files/resources/Jan2008.pdf"]China has its own contingency plans (PDF)[/URL] to dispatch troops to North Korea in case of instability. According to the report, the Chinese army could be sent into North Korea on missions to keep order if unrest triggers broader violence, including attacks on nuclear facilities in the North or South.[/quote]
Did you even read the article?
[QUOTE=yawmwen;26247868]Did you even read the article?[/QUOTE]
[quote]for fear of alienating a future power base.[/quote]Yes. Anything else?
[QUOTE=faze;26247878]Yes. Anything else?[/QUOTE]
Yes, that line only serves to weaken your point.
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