"Margarine linked to divorce"- Spurious correlations, or how misused statistics provide sensationali
50 replies, posted
[quote][img]http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75069000/jpg/_75069991_newcorrelation_graph02b_624gr.jpg[/img]
A website set up by a student at Harvard teaches us to look carefully at statistics. And it's fun at the same time.
"Margarine consumption linked to divorce." If you saw that headline on a newspaper or website, what would you think?
What if you read a little further and found a compelling graph showing the rates of divorce and margarine consumption tracking each other closely over almost 10 years.
Tempted to believe there could be a link?
"Maybe when there's more margarine in the house it's more likely to cause divorce," muses Tyler Vigen, "or there's a link with some of the molecules in margarine or something."
Vigen is the man behind the margarine graph, which he published on his website Spurious Correlations. The name gives the game away - he's a statistical provocateur.
"I've seen a lot of headlines, especially sensationalist ones - 'Scientists find a connection between x and y,' he says."
"In a lot of those situations there might be a correlation, but it's really important for us to be critical about whether there's a causal mechanism."[/quote]
[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27537142]Source:BBC News[/url]
Margarine is awful, butter is much better.
Did you know margarine is naturally a pale grey/brown colour? They have to colour it yellow to sell it.
If you werent putting real fucking butter on my biscuits your ass is out the door
[QUOTE=download;44912912]Margarine is awful, butter is much better.
Did you know margarine is naturally a pale grey/brown colour? They have to colour it yellow to sell it.[/QUOTE]
It's funny, margarine is terrible, it's also cheaper. It's cheaper so poorer people probably buy it more often, poorer people have divorce more often on average.
Margarine is linked to divorce. This is really a great observation by the researcher.
the thing is good
[img]http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75069000/jpg/_75069782_correlation_graph01_624gr.jpg[/img]
Eh what
[IMG]http://abload.de/img/korellation9koo8.png[/IMG]
[URL]http://www.tylervigen.com/view_correlation.php?id=1065[/URL]
You can find all the correlations here and try to find new awkward ones by combining different statistics.
[url]http://www.tylervigen.com/[/url]
[QUOTE=Dr.Critic;44912932][img]http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75069000/jpg/_75069782_correlation_graph01_624gr.jpg[/img]
Eh what[/QUOTE]
Hot
So this is basically a Daily Mail headline generator?
[t]http://www.tylervigen.com/correlation_project/correlation_images/point-difference-in-super-bowl_deaths-caused-by-flood.png[/t]
[url]http://www.tylervigen.com/view_correlation.php?id=3853[/url]
[t]http://www.tylervigen.com/correlation_project/correlation_images/points-scored-by-winning-team-in-super-bowl_deaths-caused-by-flood.png[/t]
[url]http://www.tylervigen.com/view_correlation.php?id=3121[/url]
don't let [URL="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/16/super-bowl-prayer_n_4605665.html"]this[/URL] half of the US see these graphs!
[QUOTE=Wiggles;44914272]So this is basically a Daily Mail headline generator?[/QUOTE]
we've found the source
the game is up DM
Butter is obviously more supreme
[IMG]http://static.fjcdn.com/gifs/Butter+than+bread_e2eca2_4954286.gif[/IMG]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/OfQYQW8.png[/IMG]
This actually kind of makes sense, cheese is giving people nightmares, causing them to get tangled in their sheets and die
[editline]26th May 2014[/editline]
Also what the fuck, 600 people die in the US every year due to bed sheets, I'm pretty sure thats more than sharks kill. Bed sheets should be banned.
They performed this study in Maine.
In. Maine.
I feel like i should make a stephen king joke but im not going to nooooo
gonna resist.
[QUOTE=download;44912912]Margarine is awful, butter is much better.
Did you know margarine is naturally a pale grey/brown colour? They have to colour it yellow to sell it.[/QUOTE]
Its also vegetable oils spun at very high speeds to make it emulsify.
My favourite statistic of all time is finally relevant.
[img]http://sparrowism.soc.srcf.net/home/piratesarecool4.gif[/img]
... Did this headline just feature a subforum title drop? Man, this is like when people talk about 'face punches'...
[QUOTE=Jamsponge;44914781]... Did this headline just feature a subforum title drop? Man, this is like when people talk about 'face punches'...[/QUOTE]
dude sensationalist headlines are real things
facepunch didn't invent them
[QUOTE=cathal6606;44914665][IMG]http://i.imgur.com/OfQYQW8.png[/IMG]
This actually kind of makes sense, cheese is giving people nightmares, causing them to get tangled in their sheets and die
[editline]26th May 2014[/editline]
Also what the fuck, 600 people die in the US every year due to bed sheets, I'm pretty sure thats more than sharks kill. Bed sheets should be banned.[/QUOTE]
That's more than sharks have [I]ever [/I] killed.
[editline]26th May 2014[/editline]
In recorded history*
Holy shit bed sheets kill a lot of people
I wonder how it happens, I have a few ideas:
Auto erotic asphyxiation
Someone has narcolepsy and tosses around so much they choke themselves
People commit suicide by hanging themselves with sheets
OR...
The monsters under your bed are real... And they are sheets
[QUOTE=Jsm;44914758]My favourite statistic of all time is finally relevant.
[img]http://sparrowism.soc.srcf.net/home/piratesarecool4.gif[/img][/QUOTE]
In a strange way (the pirate numbers are somewhat invented but piracy has declined, especially since the Barbary pirates were pacified) it doesn't directly correlate, but it shouts "psst. look over here, something interesting could be here".
One of the main reasons for the decline in piracy was the rapid rise of the industrial revolution. Large and powerful steamships can outrun pirates, iron hulls can protect against shot. Large patrolling navies with huge supply lines and thousands of men employed are utilized to protect against pirates. This all in turn means more coal burnt, more CO2 into the sky, higher temperatures.
The decrease in the number of pirates and the increase in temperate are both arguably linked to one cause. I.e the industrial revolution.
It's hilarious how much legislation is based on or defended by the incorrect use of statistics.
Others for instance:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/xqOt9mP.png[/img]
Both are (usually) the consequence of growth. The US population has grown over that time, and the graph charts absolute number of deaths, as opposed to a rate. The spending has also increased, but again, in absolute numbers, and not the actual rate is shown on the chart.
The increase in spending can be attributed to economic growth, meaning the government can tax more wealth and consequently spend more on science. If we assume the suicide rate remains constant, then an increase in population will always mean a greater absolute number of deaths.
[QUOTE=Sobotnik;44914984]In a strange way (the pirate numbers are somewhat invented but piracy has declined, especially since the Barbary pirates were pacified) it doesn't directly correlate, but it shouts "psst. look over here, something interesting could be here".
One of the main reasons for the decline in piracy was the rapid rise of the industrial revolution. Large and powerful steamships can outrun pirates, iron hulls can protect against shot. Large patrolling navies with huge supply lines and thousands of men employed are utilized to protect against pirates. This all in turn means more coal burnt, more CO2 into the sky, higher temperatures.
The decrease in the number of pirates and the increase in temperate are both arguably linked to one cause. I.e the industrial revolution.[/QUOTE]
Thats the point though - they correlate, but one is not causation for the other. In this case, they are actually both caused by the same thing (The rise of industrialisation).
Butter master race.
[QUOTE=download;44912912]Margarine is awful, butter is much better.
Did you know margarine is naturally a pale grey/brown colour? They have to colour it yellow to sell it.[/QUOTE]
Actually, uncoloured margarine is a clear-ish white, looking kind of like lard, so to make it more appealing to people it was dyed yellow to make it look more like butter, and that tradition has carried on since
[img]http://u.cubeupload.com/Paramud/rxKCJN.png[/img]
Legalize it to save the ecosystem
[img]http://puu.sh/92epR.png[/img]
good god
[QUOTE=a-cookie;44915705][IMG]http://puu.sh/92epR.png[/IMG]
good god[/QUOTE]
i wonder if these are actually related though.
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_affective_disorder[/url]
[QUOTE=a-cookie;44915705][img]http://puu.sh/92epR.png[/img]
good god[/QUOTE]
Shit my eyes are going bad. Misread "larger" as laser.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.
