Earth Expected to Be Habitable for Another 1.75 Billion Years
79 replies, posted
[url]http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130918211434.htm[/url]
[QUOTE][B]Habitable conditions on Earth will be possible for at least another 1.75 billion years - according to astrobiologists at the University of East Anglia.[/B]
The research was led by Andrew Rushby, from UEA's school of Environmental Sciences. He said: "We used the 'habitable zone' concept to make these estimates - this is the distance from a planet's star at which temperatures are conducive to having liquid water on the surface."
"We used stellar evolution models to estimate the end of a planet's habitable lifetime by determining when it will no longer be in the habitable zone. We estimate that Earth will cease to be habitable somewhere between 1.75 and 3.25 billion years from now. After this point, Earth will be in the 'hot zone' of the sun, with temperatures so high that the seas would evaporate. We would see a catastrophic and terminal extinction event for all life.
[I]"Of course conditions for humans and other complex life will become impossible much sooner - and this is being accelerated by anthropogenic climate change. Humans would be in trouble with even a small increase in temperature, and near the end only microbes in niche environments would be able to endure the heat.[/I]
"Looking back a similar amount of time, we know that there was cellular life on earth. We had insects 400 million years ago, dinosaurs 300 million years ago and flowering plants 130 million years ago. Anatomically modern humans have only been around for the last 200,000 years - so you can see it takes a really long time for intelligent life to develop.
"The amount of habitable time on a planet is very important because it tells us about the potential for the evolution of complex life - which is likely to require a longer period of habitable conditions.
"Looking at habitability metrics is useful because it allows us to investigate the potential for other planets to host life, and understand the stage that life may be at elsewhere in the galaxy.
"Of course, much of evolution is down to luck, so this isn't concrete, but we know that complex, intelligent species like humans could not emerge after only a few million years because it took us 75 per cent of the entire habitable lifetime of this planet to evolve. We think it will probably be a similar story elsewhere."[/QUOTE]
[B]THE END OF THE WORLD IS NIGH![/B]*
*In 1,750,000,000 years.
not if we can't get off fossil fuels
[QUOTE=CubeManv2;42284515]not if we can't get off fossil fuels[/QUOTE]
Sure it will. We'll run out, and then we're kinda forced off of it. Climate change won't suddenly break the earth and make everyone fall over dead in one bigass pile. It'll be less hospitable for a long while, but sure as fuck still habitable.
Eh, we'll either be spread across many colonies or a fine radioactive paste by that point.
So, with NASA's budget, we're screwed
at this rate, I expect that number to get lower and lower
*correction: what I was trying to imply was that wouldn't that number change if our footprint on the earth continues to increase/decrease in the coming years
habitable for human life, or are they just using cellular life as a marker?
Mayans WERE correct after all, just off*
*By 1,750,000,000 years.
[QUOTE=ironman17;42284542]Eh, we'll either be spread across many colonies or a fine radioactive paste by that point.[/QUOTE]
I can garantee you and everyone in this thread, if the human race lives almost 2 billion years more, we will be something much more than humans
[QUOTE=aznz888;42284610]habitable for human life, or are they just using cellular life as a marker?[/QUOTE]
did you even read the article
[quote]"Of course conditions for [B]humans[/B] and other complex life will become impossible [B]much soone[/B]r - and this is being accelerated by anthropogenic climate change. Humans would be in trouble with even a [B]small increase in temperature[/B], and near [B]the end only microbes[/B] in niche environments would be able to endure the heat.
[/quote]
[QUOTE=Xmeagol;42284625]I can garantee you and everyone in this thread, if the human race lives almost 2 billion years more, we will be something much more than humans[/QUOTE]
Not so sure, evolution in modern society isn't a big player. Someone with some amazing characteristic for survival may not necessarily breed more or live longer than anyone else in a modern society, they may not even know they have it
[QUOTE=Xmeagol;42284625]I can garantee you and everyone in this thread, if the human race lives almost 2 billion years more, we will be something much more than humans[/QUOTE]
I suppose. It's hard to tell if we will have a limit on what we can accomplish, the closest idea we have to that is machine transhumanisn and genetic transhumanism, both ways we can possibly improve/change the nature of being human. The possibilities of what we could become and if the consequences include our own destruction is something that only time will tell. It's very possible we could destroy ourselves or this planet through other, more present means simply because our society isn't exactly stable, and large amounts of time + instability + nuclear weapons = collapse. Sure, even though that isn't foreseeable now, political climate and societal stability is an ever changing thing. We live in a golden age compared to all ages before us, I am wary if we can sustain it.
Climate change is a threat, but I do not think it will make this planet completely uninhabitable. Mass exchange of thousands of nuclear weapons in the megaton scale may do that, though. Even still, humanity is a very resillient race, and I hope our society will adapt.
[editline]23rd September 2013[/editline]
[QUOTE=Trumple;42284687]Not so sure, evolution in modern society isn't a big player. Someone with some amazing characteristic for survival may not necessarily breed more or live longer than anyone else in a modern society, they may not even know they have it[/QUOTE]
I remember an article saying the evolution was progressing at the same pace despite modern medicine and society and whatnot. But I have a feeling that if we do advance ourselves; our advancement will be of a self created nature, not natural evolution, simply due to timescale and the rapid pace of civilization in this modern era.
"We used the 'habitable zone' concept to make these estimates - this is the distance from a planet's star at which temperatures are conducive to having liquid water on the surface."
This says nothing whatsoever about anything humans are or are not doing to make this planet uninhabitable, so I don't know what you guys are on about.
in 1.75 billion years we kind of wouldnt be humans anymore :v:
whatever we will become, lets hope were off this planet
But all my shit is here. God dammit Sol.
[QUOTE=TheFilmSlacker;42284570]With humans being the way they are and the population growing as steadily as it is, I'm kinda doubtful, but hey, I'm no fortune teller.[/QUOTE]
65,000,000 years ago the Earth was struck by an asteroid the size of Mount Everest, and the atmosphere was coated in a thick cloud of superheated dust for decades. 80% of life on earth perished.
And life found a way.
I doubt Humans are gonna be that bad.
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;42285106]65,000,000 years ago the Earth was struck by an asteroid the size of Mount Everest, and the atmosphere was coated in a thick cloud of superheated dust for decades. 80% of life on earth perished.
And life found a way.
I doubt Humans are gonna be that bad.[/QUOTE]
I am going to find a way to prove you wrong.
brb, building a giant rocket to put inside the earth to make it go into the sun.
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;42285106]65,000,000 years ago the Earth was struck by an asteroid the size of Mount Everest, and the atmosphere was coated in a thick cloud of superheated dust for decades. 80% of life on earth perished.
And life, uh, um, ah. . . [I]found[/I] a way.
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Qvsp6Mi.png[/IMG][/QUOTE]
Fixed.
Humans are not going to kill everything or the planet, we're just going to kill ourselves. Earth will shake off our impacts like a bad virus and carry on with life after we're gone and we'll be nothing more than an honorable mention in evolutionary linage. All our monuments and plastics and waste will be completely erased in a short geological time and there will be no sign we ever existed except broken fossils for other beings to make guesses as to what we were.
Or we could move away to mars and try to carry on, but right now we're still at risk of being completely forgotten by the Universe. Only thing we'll have to show for ourselves is a couple of lonely dead space probes floating through deep space. We still have a long way to go even with all our might to surpass the dinosaurs.
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;42285106]65,000,000 years ago the Earth was struck by an asteroid the size of Mount Everest, and the atmosphere was coated in a thick cloud of superheated dust for decades. 80% of life on earth perished.
And life found a way.
I doubt Humans are gonna be that bad.[/QUOTE]
There was a bigger extinction 250 million years ago, the Permian–Triassic extinction, it wiped out 96% of the species on earth and it`s estimated it took 10 million years for life to recover.
[QUOTE=OvB;42285339]Humans are not going to kill everything or the planet, we're just going to kill ourselves. Earth will shake off our impacts like a bad virus and carry on with life after we're gone and we'll be nothing more than an honorable mention in evolutionary linage. All our monuments and plastics and waste will be completely erased in a short geological time and there will be no sign we ever existed except broken fossils for other beings to make guesses as to what we were. [/QUOTE]
Didn't George Carlin do a skit on this exact thing?
Considering how quickly technology is advancing, I don't think this will be much of a problem I just hope that NASA gets some huge boosts in funding because if not, well..
RIP everyone.
[QUOTE=PopSkimo;42285481]Considering how quickly technology is advancing, I don't think this will be much of a problem I just hope that NASA gets some huge boosts in funding because if not, well..
RIP everyone.[/QUOTE]
Ignoring other countries and private industry?
[QUOTE=Reshy;42285427]Didn't George Carlin do a skit on this exact thing?[/QUOTE]
Yes.
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c[/media]
[QUOTE=OvB;42285563]Yes.
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c[/media][/QUOTE]
gotta love that guy
[QUOTE=Riller;42284532]Sure it will. We'll run out, and then we're kinda forced off of it. Climate change won't suddenly break the earth and make everyone fall over dead in one bigass pile. It'll be less hospitable for a long while, but sure as fuck still habitable.[/QUOTE]
Isn't it sad that it will probably take the depletion of the world's oil supplies the force the inevitable and necessary switch to renewable energy sources?
[QUOTE=CubeManv2;42284515]not if we can't get off fossil fuels[/QUOTE]
this misconception needs to stop
the entire environment as a whole is good, and getting better at that
[QUOTE=St. Burke;42285031]in 1.75 billion years we kind of wouldnt be humans anymore :v:
whatever we will become, lets hope were off this planet[/QUOTE]
Well according to some people we will look like a fine mix of Porky Pig and ET with an impressive scrotum.
[IMG]http://morriscourse.com/myths_of_evolution/images/future_human.jpg[/IMG]
Is this NSFW?
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;42285106]65,000,000 years ago the Earth was struck by an asteroid the size of Mount Everest, and the atmosphere was coated in a thick cloud of superheated dust for decades. 80% of life on earth perished.
And life found a way.
I doubt Humans are gonna be that bad.[/QUOTE]
Unfortunately, I believe we are going through a mass extinction far more rapid than any other in history due to human expansion.
you know what, i don't like future predictions and huge numbers like these
now i need to forget this, because it makes me worry
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