Trump's poll numbers are collapsing, GOP may abandon him if he fucks up second debate - Polidicks - Facepunch Forum

Trump's poll numbers are collapsing, GOP may abandon him if he fucks up second debate

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Note: this thread was posted the day before the Trump tape leak. [url]http://nyti.ms/2dyzAlT[/url] [quote]Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress. For his party, Mr. Trump’s reversal in fortune comes at the worst possible moment: Having muted their criticism of Mr. Trump in hopes that he could at least run competitively through Election Day, Republicans must decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance from his wobbly campaign. Should Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on Sunday in St. Louis, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private party strategy.[/quote]

The GOP turning on him would be quite the sight to see.

Has the GOP ever threatened to abandon a candidate this late into the election before?

[QUOTE]said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign[/QUOTE] suuuuuuure. god, I somewhat [I]hope[/I] that the GOP ditches Trump just for how entertaining it'd make the election. Still, they have far less to gain than they have to lose by ditching their candidate, it won't happen.

The media needs to stop with that question. "Will the GOP distance themselves from Trump?" Sorry, it's too late. We are one month away from the election, the chance to distance the party from the nominee passed at the deadline for making it onto the ballot. You can't pull this every four years, fostering the nominee and then abandoning him, this is why so many Republicans hate their leadership.

What would the GOP message be then? "Don't vote trump, write in Cruz" or what? Would that be an endorsement of Clinton?

If they do ditch him when he fucks up the second debate, their party will collapse around their ears. Leastways, they'll have a long way to go to pick up the pieces from this election.

I really want to see how Trump processes all the information like this when he hears of it. "Trump support plunges in swing states in aftermath of debate." "GOP congressional candidates refuse to support Trump" "Every voting demographic ever abandons Trump" Is the immediate tweets where he cries out fake media or calls everyone a loser just for show and he actually cries to himself in his golden office or is he just in denial. How can he possibly think it's a grand idea to attack Miss Universe, a veterans family, among other things and expect to gain from it? Does he truly believe everyone thinks like him? I really want to pick his brain.

[QUOTE=Omali;51162565]The media needs to stop with that question. "Will the GOP distance themselves from Trump?" Sorry, it's too late. We are one month away from the election, the chance to distance the party from the nominee passed at the deadline for making it onto the ballot. You can't pull this every four years, fostering the nominee and then abandoning him, this is why so many Republicans hate their leadership.[/QUOTE] Every four years? I don't know if it's ever happened before

This defeat is going to be insanely humiliating, all he'll be remembered for is this and the fact he lost to the first woman president, something he probably can't even comprehend given his views on women. His legacy will be one of insane incompetence and something everyone will laugh at 10 years from now. I don't think Trump's ego is going to be able to accept it and he's brought it all on himself.

[QUOTE=Monkah;51162559]suuuuuuure. god, I somewhat [I]hope[/I] that the GOP ditches Trump just for how entertaining it'd make the election. Still, they have far less to gain than they have to lose by ditching their candidate, it won't happen.[/QUOTE] Just out of curiosity, do you think the Times is lying, or the two senior Republicans?

seeing the alt-right being kicked square in the balls and the republicans humiliated would be a beautiful way to end the year

[QUOTE=smurfy;51162576]Every four years? I don't know if it's ever happened before[/QUOTE] I think they put some space between themselves and romney towards the election, but still mustered up and voted for him. We'll probably just get that again.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51162596]seeing the alt-right being kicked square in the balls and the republicans humiliated would be a beautiful way to end the year[/QUOTE] It would be a lovely way to end a shitty year, the GOP has had this coming for a while since they pretty much run on a platform of outdated ideas.

[QUOTE=Raidyr;51162588]Just out of curiosity, do you think the Times is lying, or the two senior Republicans?[/QUOTE] To be fair, remember how many times people have said Trump's campaign has been 'over' He'll probably lose, but it's still not guaranteed at all

Lmao Every time he closes the gap with Hillary he always fucks up it Still I think it will be less comfortable then its looking right now on election day, a lot of conservatives on the fence about trump will likely fall into party lines. [editline]6th October 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=Monkah;51162559]suuuuuuure. god, I somewhat [I]hope[/I] that the GOP ditches Trump just for how entertaining it'd make the election. Still, they have far less to gain than they have to lose by ditching their candidate, it won't happen.[/QUOTE] Its unlikely that it will happen, but if it did it would be because they would want to distance them selves for their own local elections and not to win the Presidency, because Trump has been hurting their chances by being associated with the same party. This is the reason why you have GOP politicians endorsing Hillary

The Death of the GOP has been set in motion...

[QUOTE=Deathtrooper2;51163015]The Death of the GOP has been set in motion...[/QUOTE] Honestly it's been in motion for decades, probably since Reagan, maybe earlier. I can't be sure. 2008 and the rise of the Tea Party signalled it had begun. It is a slow, quiet thing. The fall. It has always been presented to us as sudden, unfathomable - a surprise. But the fall can always be seen with hindsight - and in some cases, without. The fall does not result in a bang or a climax; it is a whimper, a silence that deafens those around it, who were before unable to hear the warnings. It will certainly deafen those who supported Trump.

Hopefully next election cycle we get a more moderate GOP candidate along the lines of McCain. The anti-intellectualism from some of the candidates this year is just frightening.

[QUOTE=LTJGPliskin;51163071]Hopefully next election cycle we get a more moderate GOP candidate along the lines of McCain. The anti-intellectualism from some of the candidates this year is just frightening.[/QUOTE] I'm holding out hope that the GOP will completely reinvent itself after this year. Most likely it would be as a libertarian party (if the actual Libertarian Party couldn't capitalize on this year, they clearly aren't ready to be a Big Two party), but maybe it'll decide to stick to conservative social values but completely flip on economics, and become a Jesus Socialist party.

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51163032] It is a slow, quiet thing. The fall. It has always been presented to us as sudden, unfathomable - a surprise. But the fall can always be seen with hindsight - and in some cases, without. The fall does not result in a bang or a climax; it is a whimper, a silence that deafens those around it, who were before unable to hear the warnings. [/QUOTE] Jesus Christ, dude. Calm down. A really, really shitty nominee somehow gets the primary but then everyone realizes that it's a mistake and starts to backpedal on it. It's not hard to believe that in a political climate full of "gotcha" statements and sound-bites a man like Trump would be able to catch some popularity. It takes a bit longer for people to realize who's good and who's bad these days because everyone's too lazy to actually do their own homework, and then too proud to admit that they were wrong. Will it be the end of one of the largest and most powerful political groups in U.S. history? Most likely not. It'll probably change it a bit, as it tries to re-shuffle things around to make sure it doesn't fuck up this bad again, but it's pretty stupid to imagine that a party that influential will just shudder and fall apart.

Trump started as a joke over here, and trump has been a joke for a while.. the problem is that the joke is dead. even though they made a new joke called "hillary" now we've ran 2 dumb jokes to the ground and america still thinks they should vote for them

One thing I think this election will do is make parties start running "secret" candidates. On the Democrat side, Hillary was the "obvious" pick for presidential candidate after 2006 or so, and so the Republicans have been spreading an anti-hillary message even as far back as the 2008 elections (they were probably a contributing factor in Obama winning the primaries). And since no other obvious candidates arose during Obama's term (partly because the Democrats are really bad right now at congress/governor races), the Republicans have been absolutely savaging Hillary's reputation for basically ten years now. The Congressional witch-hunt of the Benghazi and email-server investigations convinced enough people that an [I]independent[/I] nearly clinched the DNC nomination. The way voters talk about her, she's some 19th-century-ish corruption kingpin (queenpin?), but if anything she's actually less shady than most contemporary politicians. It's just that people are really bad at reckoning importance at this scale, and bad stories are more memorable, so if you just drag a few bad stories in front of the media for long enough, you can convince an electorate that [I]anyone[/I] is evil. You can see this clearly on the Republican side: everyone in the primaries with political history had a weakness. Trump won because all of his failures were private-market, and thus easier to hide from the public consciousness - and because the media didn't take him seriously, for far too long. It's telling that, out of all the primary candidates, three of the longer-lasting were complete political novices - Trump, Carson, and Fiorina. Carson had just a complete lack of charisma, and Fiorina's term at HP was well-covered, and unfavorably so, by the tech press, so Trump won basically by being the person with the least history anyone remembered clearly. I think parties will begin selecting candidates that are less predictable - people who were governor or senator for a term or two, not people with decades of political history. People who were out of the eye of the media - because anyone who the media knows about is too easily targeted. Maybe not in 2020, it may take them another few cycles to figure it out, but it will happen eventually.

the votin is in like 1 month? I'm scared shitless because it's doesnt matter if it's hillary or trump we get fucked anyway

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51163032]Honestly it's been in motion for decades, probably since Reagan, maybe earlier. I can't be sure. 2008 and the rise of the Tea Party signalled it had begun. It is a slow, quiet thing. The fall. It has always been presented to us as sudden, unfathomable - a surprise. But the fall can always be seen with hindsight - and in some cases, without. The fall does not result in a bang or a climax; it is a whimper, a silence that deafens those around it, who were before unable to hear the warnings. It will certainly deafen those who supported Trump.[/QUOTE] Cool your jets, Kreia. I don't think it's a death just yet, most of the defections will happen at congressional races where republicans in risky races will decide that trying to hold onto their seat is more valuable than attaching themselves to the sinking ship that has become the Trump campaign.

[QUOTE=gman003-main;51163277]One thing I think this election will do is make parties start running "secret" candidates. On the Democrat side, Hillary was the "obvious" pick for presidential candidate after 2006 or so, and so the Republicans have been spreading an anti-hillary message even as far back as the 2008 elections (they were probably a contributing factor in Obama winning the primaries). And since no other obvious candidates arose during Obama's term (partly because the Democrats are really bad right now at congress/governor races), the Republicans have been absolutely savaging Hillary's reputation for basically ten years now. The Congressional witch-hunt of the Benghazi and email-server investigations convinced enough people that an [I]independent[/I] nearly clinched the DNC nomination. The way voters talk about her, she's some 19th-century-ish corruption kingpin (queenpin?), but if anything she's actually less shady than most contemporary politicians. It's just that people are really bad at reckoning importance at this scale, and bad stories are more memorable, so if you just drag a few bad stories in front of the media for long enough, you can convince an electorate that [I]anyone[/I] is evil. You can see this clearly on the Republican side: everyone in the primaries with political history had a weakness. Trump won because all of his failures were private-market, and thus easier to hide from the public consciousness - and because the media didn't take him seriously, for far too long. It's telling that, out of all the primary candidates, three of the longer-lasting were complete political novices - Trump, Carson, and Fiorina. Carson had just a complete lack of charisma, and Fiorina's term at HP was well-covered, and unfavorably so, by the tech press, so Trump won basically by being the person with the least history anyone remembered clearly. I think parties will begin selecting candidates that are less predictable - people who were governor or senator for a term or two, not people with decades of political history. People who were out of the eye of the media - because anyone who the media knows about is too easily targeted. Maybe not in 2020, it may take them another few cycles to figure it out, but it will happen eventually.[/QUOTE] Hillary is the "obvious" choice. she won't fuck us up. she won't do anything. But why we think like that?

[QUOTE=Hillo;51163349]Hillary is the "obvious" choice. she won't fuck us up. she won't do anything. But why we think like that?[/QUOTE] I meant "obvious" in the sense of "out of all the Democratic politicians, who is most likely to run?", not "out of the two candidates, which is better for our country?" Go back in time to mid-2015 and ask any random person on the street to name a Democrat politician. You'd get Obama, Biden, both Clintons, maybe Pelosi or Kerry, and maybe their state governor or senators, if they happen to be Democrats. I wouldn't even guarantee that last one - I think I [I]voted[/I] for Tim Kaine as senator in 2012, and I didn't remember him until he got the VP nomination. Out of all of those, Obama and Bill couldn't run again, Kerry lost a presidential bid once, Biden and Pelosi apparently doesn't want to be president, and none of the other senators or governors have national name recognition besides Hillary. There could easily be other people to get the nomination - Obama did so, after all - but Hillary was the only person who was obviously going to run for nomination in 2016.

[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;51162582]This defeat is going to be insanely humiliating, all he'll be remembered for is this and the fact he lost to the first woman president, something he probably can't even comprehend given his views on women. His legacy will be one of insane incompetence and something everyone will laugh at 10 years from now. I don't think Trump's ego is going to be able to accept it and he's brought it all on himself.[/QUOTE] BREAKING: Donald Trump seen carrying an assault gun, shooting at people in the streets on a mad killing spree

You all talk as if the political views represented here on facepunch are in line with the majority of Americans.

[QUOTE=Deathtrooper2;51163015]The Death of the GOP has been set in motion...[/QUOTE] And the Alt-right will probably replace it... Considering how the entire world has shifted to the right recently, it would probably only continue to grow with Hillary. Because then they have a single person to blame everything on again. It's pretty much guaranteed to continue shifting no matter what unfortunately.

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