Can an Assassination Campaign Turn the Tide in Afghanistan? - Polidicks

[img]http://img.timeinc.net/time/rd/trunk/www/web/feds/i/logoTimeSpecials.png[/img] [url=http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2011633,00.html]Source[/url] [release]The Obama Administrations new military strategy in Afghanistan may be a sign of desperation — a Hail Mary pass — but it may just work. The President's counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan describes it as giving up the 'hammer' for the 'scalpel.' The military, as we know from classified military documents put on the Internet by WikiLeaks last month, prefers the term 'kinetic strike'. I've heard the Pentagon use the term 'eliminating command nodes'. But I'll go ahead and call it by its everyday name: assassination. The tactic is familiar in the war on terror, of course, its template being the CIA's unmanned aerial vehicle strikes on al-Qaeda operatives in the tribal areas of Pakistan, another form of assassination. Putting aside questions of the long-term wisdom of firing area weapons into small villages, no one has convincingly disputed the fact that these strikes have badly hurt al-Qaeda, with its remnants either hiding in caves or fleeing to places like Yemen. Not surprisingly, the military has asked, Why can't we do the same in Afghanistan? An official back from Washington told me I'd be surprised at the extent to which my former colleagues in the CIA are caught up in this new Afghan strategy, the agency having turned itself into a paramilitary operation at the service of the military. The CIA in Afghanistan wakes up in the morning and goes to bed at night thinking about how it can better guide Brennan's scalpel. It has even adopted a new term for officers helping the military — targeters. But the flaw in the new strategy remains the availability of good, solid intelligence. The first assassination I ever looked into in depth was that of Bashir Gemayel, Lebanon's Christian president-elect who was killed along with 26 others by a bomb attack on his Phalange party's headquarters September 14, 1982. What was apparent from the beginning was that the assassins had fantastic intelligence. They not only had people continuously watching Gemayel right up until the moment they detonated their bomb, they also had unimpeded access to the building in which Gemayel was killed. The assassins did not intend to miss, because for them assassination is a form of intimidation — a message to Gemayel's party that if it continued cooperating with the Israelis, who had invaded Lebanon, the rest of the party's leadership would meet the same fate. It worked. Gemayel's brother Amine, who succeeded him, gave up any idea of cooperating with Israel. That's pretty much what we'd like to do in Afghanistan: decimate the Taliban's leadership, and force the survivors to put down their arms. But Afghanistan isn't Lebanon. For a start, there is no single leader of the Taliban. How many Taliban commanders would we have to kill before the Taliban was intimidated? Fifty? A hundred? We don't know the Taliban well enough to put a number on it. Second, what's clear in Afghanistan is that while our military is more than capable of wielding a scalpel, we don't have the intelligence to point out where to strike. We saw evidence of this in the Wikileak documents on the failed assassination of al-Qaeda operative Abu Laith al-Libi in Afghanistan. It underscores the problem that the Taliban is possibly the most elusive military force in the world. Unlike the Gemayel assassination, there simply is no way for us to keep our eyes on a target right up until the assassination, let alone get access to wherever he's hiding. Like any Hail Mary pass, we'll just have to wait and see whether the play works. Baer, a former Middle East CIA field officer, is TIME.com's intelligence columnist and the author of See No Evil and, most recently, The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower.[/release] [img]http://a3.twimg.com/profile_images/75414639/WL_Hour_Glass_Bottom_bigger.jpg[/img] [url=http://twitter.com/wikileaks/statuses/21567911466]Source[/url] [release]Time mentions Abu Laith al-Libi assassination attempt. Neglects to mention killed 7 children. [url]http://bit.ly/dq8FuS[/url][/release]

Take down the leadership and the cells descend into internal rivalry. It's a true and tested strategy. But why didn't they use this from the very beginning, it seems too obvious that they should have.

go for it

"Cut off the head and the body shall wither"

How bout no. Lets just leave Afghanistan, but who cares about rational thought right?

Read about this a while ago in The Sunday Times. Seems like a sound strategy.

If this works and the leaders of Al-Queda are killed then the souls who died on 9/11 can rest peacefully.

[QUOTE=TheFallen(TF2);24183967]If this works and the leaders of Al-Queda are killed then the souls who died on 9/11 can rest peacefully.[/QUOTE] Yeah, I'm sure all those thousands afgan civilian killed in air-raids and rambo apache crews will make them feel better.

I like your news threads because you include the name of the news source in big print :v:

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;24183614]"Cut off the head and the body shall wither"[/QUOTE] Unless it's a weed, where if you cut off the head it'll just regrow from the roots.

[QUOTE=Turnips5;24184206]Unless it's a weed, where if you cut off the head it'll just regrow from the roots.[/QUOTE] these boys ain't weeds. They were unorganized and undisciplined before the leaders shaped them into a fighting force. You take the leaders out, the soldiers have no one to lead them. Believe it or not, the leaders just give out the orders, with no well informed leaders that know US supply routes, patrol routes, base locations, and places not to attack, sooner or later they will vanish almost completely. Because trust me, I was there. The only thing that they know is that they are fighting for islam to destroy the infidels, and thats no racial profiling either. I saw the interrogations, I have read the reports. Most have no military training, can't read, can't write, and have been brainwashed to take orders, not to think for themselves. They are in a mindset where they think that their leaders will just pull them out of the dirt and come up with a new plan. You take out the leaders, and you have nothing to worry about.

[QUOTE=Billiam;24184103]I like your news threads because you include the name of the news source in big print :v:[/QUOTE] Started that today. Also a lot of people seem to have missed the one from Wikileaks.

[QUOTE=PvtCupcakes;24183933]How bout no. Lets just leave Afghanistan, but who cares about rational thought right?[/QUOTE] I care. I agree with this.

[QUOTE=italics560;24184819]these boys ain't weeds. They were unorganized and undisciplined before the leaders shaped them into a fighting force. You take the leaders out, the soldiers have no one to lead them. Believe it or not, the leaders just give out the orders, with no well informed leaders that know US supply routes, patrol routes, base locations, and places not to attack, sooner or later they will vanish almost completely. Because trust me, I was there. The only thing that they know is that they are fighting for islam to destroy the infidels, and thats no racial profiling either. I saw the interrogations, I[B] have read the reports. Most have no military training, can't read, can't write, and have been brainwashed to take orders, not to think for themselves. [/B] They are in a mindset where they think that their leaders will just pull them out of the dirt and come up with a new plan. You take out the leaders, and you have nothing to worry about.[/QUOTE] You speak like a war veteran, but you're probably twelve.

The CIA have been doing this for decades so they know what they are doing, it's a all a question of getting good intelligence on targets and finding a good way to take them out with minimal collateral damage.

[QUOTE=Sickle;24185063]You speak like a war veteran, but you're probably twelve.[/QUOTE] This can be said about everyone in the internet.

[QUOTE=MingusMajor;24187633]This can be said about everyone in the internet.[/QUOTE] The things I saw in the Refugee Camp changed me forever.

[QUOTE=italics560;24184819]these boys ain't weeds. They were unorganized and undisciplined before the leaders shaped them into a fighting force. You take the leaders out, the soldiers have no one to lead them. Believe it or not, the leaders just give out the orders, with no well informed leaders that know US supply routes, patrol routes, base locations, and places not to attack, sooner or later they will vanish almost completely. Because trust me, I was there. The only thing that they know is that they are fighting for islam to destroy the infidels, and thats no racial profiling either. I saw the interrogations, I have read the reports. Most have no military training, can't read, can't write, and have been brainwashed to take orders, not to think for themselves. They are in a mindset where they think that their leaders will just pull them out of the dirt and come up with a new plan. You take out the leaders, and you have nothing to worry about.[/QUOTE] What a load of shit.

italics560, so you served in Afghanistan?

[QUOTE=italics560;24184819]these boys ain't weeds. They were unorganized and undisciplined before the leaders shaped them into a fighting force. You take the leaders out, the soldiers have no one to lead them. Believe it or not, the leaders just give out the orders, with no well informed leaders that know US supply routes, patrol routes, base locations, and places not to attack, sooner or later they will vanish almost completely. Because trust me, I was there. The only thing that they know is that they are fighting for islam to destroy the infidels, and thats no racial profiling either. I saw the interrogations, I have read the reports. Most have no military training, can't read, can't write, and have been brainwashed to take orders, not to think for themselves. They are in a mindset where they think that their leaders will just pull them out of the dirt and come up with a new plan. You take out the leaders, and you have nothing to worry about.[/QUOTE] So is that why successful UAV assassinations have had little effect on the operational and strategic level and why the Taliban are so good at being decentralized and at nullifying the "magic" promises of high technology? :downs:

[QUOTE=Sickle;24185063]You speak like a war veteran, but you're probably twelve.[/QUOTE] You don't have to be a war vet to know your adversary.

The Taliban is a bit smarter than that. They probably already have a scenario like this planned out and have ways to resume their campaign. Plus, even if the Taliban is stopped, there's still insurgents fighting to keep the Coalition from occupying the country. These people I support (I do not in any way support the Taliban though), and I'm pretty sure they won't stop. Afghanistan has always been fiercely patriotic and resilient to invasion, even from the world's foremost powers.

[QUOTE=Testabar;24191722]You don't have to be a war vet to know your adversary.[/QUOTE] Yes, but if you've not been there then you need a source of information. Sources can be biased, etc, etc.

I have not been to Afghanistan, but my Section Sergeant has. He said when they rolled into a village the only person who stood ouside with the village elder, everyone else were busy hiding. Upon greeting them, There interpreter talks to the elder. The elder ask if they were the Russians. This was 2007.

[QUOTE=Gmod_Fan77;24191816]The Taliban is a bit smarter than that. They probably already have a scenario like this planned out and have ways to resume their campaign. Plus, even if the Taliban is stopped, there's still insurgents fighting to keep the Coalition from occupying the country. These people I support (I do not in any way support the Taliban though), and I'm pretty sure they won't stop. Afghanistan has always been fiercely patriotic and resilient to invasion, even from the world's foremost powers.[/QUOTE] I think your getting confused here. The Taliban are the insurgents. Al Qaeda are the terrorist organization.

[QUOTE=Testabar;24192013]I have not been to Afghanistan, but my Section Sergeant has. He said when they rolled into a village the only person who stood ouside with the village elder, everyone else were busy hiding. Upon greeting them, There interpreter talks to the elder. The elder ask if they were the Russians. This was 2007.[/QUOTE] Are outer villages really that uninformed of the war in their country...? The US really needs to up its PR over there, if so. Hope you don't get sent over.

[QUOTE=P1X3L N1NJA;24192581]I think your getting confused here. The Taliban are the insurgents. Al Qaeda are the terrorist organization.[/QUOTE] Actually, no. There are two varying factions: the insurgents and the Taliban. The Taliban are the larger force, fightng to take control of Afghanistan. The insurgents, whom I do openly support, are the ones fighting to keep the Coalition out of their country, not to control it. These two groups happen to be allied, but they don't share the same beliefs.

Are you implying that the ISAF are conquering afganistan? On topic an assassination will only work if you can actually find the guy in charge.

[QUOTE=Gmod_Fan77;24192677]Actually, no. There are two varying factions: the insurgents and the Taliban. The Taliban are the larger force, fightng to take control of Afghanistan. The insurgents, whom I do openly support, are the ones fighting to keep the Coalition out of their country, not to control it. These two groups happen to be allied, but they don't share the same beliefs.[/QUOTE] [citation needed]

[QUOTE=JDK721;24187846]italics560, so you served in Afghanistan?[/QUOTE] I did 2 tours, my third got cut short because of issues at home (my mother passing on and my brother committing suicide). I was later discharged. When I got back I became a security manager at a night club owned by my cousin and did some bodyguard work on the side.