Second Round of the French Elections - Polidicks

[quote]French voters are choosing their next president after an unpredictable campaign that has divided the country. The second round contest pits centrist Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old former investment banker, against the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, 48. Voter turnout was 28.2% by 12:00 local time (10:00 GMT), lower than that of previous presidential elections. The vote is being closely watched across Europe, as the results could affect the future of the EU. The polls opened in metropolitan France at 08:00 local time (06:00 GMT) on Sunday and close at 19:00 (17:00 GMT). Polling stations will remain open in some big cities until 20:00 local time (18:00 GMT), with early estimates of the result due to be reported immediately after they close. Over 50,000 police officers have been deployed to maintain security. Both candidates have been in the north of France on Sunday, with Mr Macron voting near his home in the sea-side resort of Le Touquet, and Ms Le Pen in the working-class town of Henin-Beaumont, a National Front stronghold.[/quote] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39833831[/url]

Very interested in the results.

[QUOTE=Toybasher;52197194]Very interested in the results.[/QUOTE] It probably won't be anything surprising. Polls were on point for the first round.

Fucking praying from the US that macron wins. Please win.

so if Le Pen somehow wins and wants to pull France out of the EU, does she have to hold a referendum or can she just do it? i've seen people saying an FN win would basically kill the EU but that seems like a substantial leap to me

[QUOTE=Cone;52197206]so if Le Pen somehow wins and wants to pull France out of the EU, does she have to hold a referendum or can she just do it? i've seen people saying an FN win would basically kill the EU but that seems like a substantial leap to me[/QUOTE] she'll hold a referendum and leave if she loses she said the frexit will have to wait a little to grab a little more votes tho

[QUOTE=Cone;52197206]so if Le Pen somehow wins and wants to pull France out of the EU, does she have to hold a referendum or can she just do it? i've seen people saying an FN win would basically kill the EU but that seems like a substantial leap to me[/QUOTE] People say that because you need over 50% of the vote to win the second round, so they assume all Le Pen voters would vote for "Frexit". That doesn't take into consideration a lot more people would turn out to an EU referendum + some may be using Le Pen as a protest against Macron.

[QUOTE=Cone;52197206]so if Le Pen somehow wins and wants to pull France out of the EU, does she have to hold a referendum or can she just do it? i've seen people saying an FN win would basically kill the EU but that seems like a substantial leap to me[/QUOTE] She would have to hold a referendum, yes. But Le Pen's platform is entirely protectionist, anti-EU. To have a government in favour of leaving the EU would create a significant likelihood that the vote would turn out in their favour, plus if Brexit told us anything, it's that these decisions probably shouldn't be made by referendums with 50% majorities. It's not a substantial leap to say that an FN win could eventuate with France leaving the EU. It's also not a leap to say that France leaving would basically kill the EU. It would be a huge setback that may almost be insurmountable and would spur nationalism across other European countries even further, and dramatically reduce economic incentive for European countries in the union as France and Germany prop up the Euro substantively. Guess we'll see what happens, but I am hoping that Macron wins. [editline]7th May 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Factemius;52197210]she'll hold a referendum and leave if she loses she said the frexit will have to wait a little to grab a little more votes tho[/QUOTE] Why do you think she would leave if she loses out of interest? I know David Cameron did but he had already put in 4 years as PM and so it was less politically difficult. A straight up new leader would have much greater difficulty leaving

Are exit polls or results early?

[QUOTE=killerteacup;52197221] Why do you think she would leave if she loses out of interest? I know David Cameron did but he had already put in 4 years as PM and so it was less politically difficult. A straight up new leader would have much greater difficulty leaving[/QUOTE] She said it a bunch of times [url]http://www.europe1.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-partira-si-le-non-lemporte-lors-du-referendum-quelle-propose-sur-leuro-3196406[/url] [url]http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/03/07/97001-20170307FILWWW00230-le-pen-quitterait-le-pouvoir-en-cas-de-non-a-un-referendum-sur-la-sortie-de-l-euro.php[/url] [url]http://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/marine-le-pen/referendum-sur-la-sortie-de-l-euro-le-pen-quitterait-le-pouvoir-en-cas-de-non-4841047[/url] (Google translate if you can't understand)

[quote] Voter turnout was 28.2% by 12:00 local time (10:00 GMT), lower than that of previous presidential elections.[/quote] it's really fucking eerie how closely this is mimicking clinton vs. trump

[QUOTE=TheHydra;52197333]it's really fucking eerie how closely this is mimicking clinton vs. trump[/QUOTE] It's no lower than the first round, which had 22% abstention. Nowhere close to US levels.

[QUOTE=_Axel;52197348]It's no lower than the first round, which had 22% abstention. Nowhere close to US levels.[/QUOTE] I thought we saw like, 55% votes?

[QUOTE=TheHydra;52197333]it's really fucking eerie how closely this is mimicking clinton vs. trump[/QUOTE] Estimated turnout was only down by 0.2% in 2016 compared to 2012. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016[/url]

For comparison, the previous second round had 19.5% abstention. It's higher but nothing really significant. [editline]7th May 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52197354]I thought we saw like, 55% votes?[/QUOTE] What? 45% abstention in the first round?

They are already guessing she won't win, but they think she will for 2022, especially if Macron can't make some significant changes.

[QUOTE=MissZoey;52197355]Estimated turnout was only down by 0.2% in 2016 compared to 2012. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016[/url][/QUOTE] Hahaha that electoral voting map. Oh you poor Americans.

[QUOTE=Matthew0505;52197368]28.2% turnout would be 71.8% abstention not 28.2% abstension[/QUOTE] There's still 8 hours left after that poll tho so why does it matters?

[QUOTE=Matthew0505;52197368]28.2% turnout would be 71.8% abstention not 28.2% abstension[/QUOTE] Oh, so polls closed at noon? That's a surprise.

[QUOTE=Boilrig;52197369]They are already guessing she won't win, but they think she will for 2022, especially if Macron can't make some significant changes.[/QUOTE] a lot can change in five years in that time, trump will complete his term as president and britain will have left the EU. if both of those turn out to be failures they too could discredit the rightwing populism that's current right now

I've been seeing times all over the place. When (GMT) are the polls supposed to close, and votes counted? I don't mean exit polls or early results, I mean the concrete stuff

[video=youtube;X5ffmHJwJiM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5ffmHJwJiM[/video] do it my dude

[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52197488]I've been seeing times all over the place. When (GMT) are the polls supposed to close, and votes counted? I don't mean exit polls or early results, I mean the concrete stuff[/QUOTE] Polls close at 8pm in France.

[QUOTE=_Axel;52197590]Polls close at 8pm in France.[/QUOTE] Thanks. I'll hopefully have my toxx equipment ready by then

[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52197488]I've been seeing times all over the place. When (GMT) are the polls supposed to close, and votes counted? I don't mean exit polls or early results, I mean the concrete stuff[/QUOTE] Concrete stuff will be tomorrow, they're counting during the night. We should have good enough results at around 7/8pm GMT tho

Turnout is down for some reason, can't imagine that's good for Macron :/

[QUOTE=Occlusion;52197684]Turnout is down for some reason, can't imagine that's good for Macron :/[/QUOTE] Perhaps not. However, why would people, who didn't vote for Le Pen in the first round, be markedly more enthusiastic?

[QUOTE=Occlusion;52197684]Turnout is down for some reason, can't imagine that's good for Macron :/[/QUOTE] That was expected, with more than 50% of the population not happy with either candidate. It's not down by much tho, so it probably won't change a thing.

Final turnout is now [url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/may/07/french-presidential-election-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen?page=with:block-590f43e1e4b0d608cb0825fd#block-590f43e1e4b0d608cb0825fd]projected[/url] at around 74%, which would make it the lowest in almost 50 years. Although many countries, such as the US/UK, would give their left nut to get turnout that high :v: [editline]7th May 2017[/editline] Many media orgs have reportedly been [url=https://twitter.com/KaminskiMK/status/861246561296297984]banned[/url] from the National Front's results party/funeral

[QUOTE=Dave_Parker;52197810]When's the exit polls[/QUOTE] Not exit polls, but we'll have a pretty good approximation of the final results on the government's website by 8pm.