thought it was an interesting unbiased read for those who may be uninformed.
beginning half of article in link.
[url]http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/Syrian-civil-war-A-military-strategic-assessment-313567[/url]
[quote][img]http://puu.sh/2WP5l.jpg[/img][/quote]
[quote]ALONG WITH its geostrategic characteristics, the prolonged Syrian civil war possesses other significant characteristics: it began as a “low-intensity conflict,” and gradually evolved into the most recent example of what is known as hybrid warfare. Briefly, this means warfare in which meaningful operational integrity between regular and irregular capabilities is maintained.
The overall picture has gradually become complicated by the involvement of air force, MANPADS, armored units and paramilitary forces acting in coordination with regular military units. Assad’s forces have had to depart from their traditional, centralized, Soviet- type military doctrine and adopt more flexible tactics to counter both geostrategic and tactical diversification by the opposition elements.
From the early stages of the conflict Assad has relied on his praetorian units (the 4th Armored Division, Republican Guards, and special forces), all of which were designed for the dual missions of conventional warfare and regime security.
This strategy has prevented mass unit defections, defection of an armored division as a whole, for instance, but has also limited the Ba’athist dictatorship’s combat power by approximately one-third.
An additional factor is that Assad’s over-reliance on “politico-religious” trusted units has brought about the dissolution of the Syrian “nation,” to the extent that even should the opposition successfully topple Assad’s tyranny, it is unclear whether the new regime would be able to reunite the country.
Along with some other factors, the hybrid character of the conflict has prolonged it – this type of armed conflict is more a “war of attrition” than mechanized warfare-type “war of annihilation.”
In keeping with this, to make predictions regarding the outcome, one’s focus should be on the gamechanging stamina factor. In the context of modern warfare, one of the key components of “military stamina” is foreign arms supplies.
Videos have appeared online depicting opposition fighters carrying weapons that were never a part of the Syrian inventory. Among these are the RPG-22 and M79 Osa rocket launchers, M60 recoilless rifles, Milkor MGL/RBG- 6 grenade launchers and FN-6 MANPADs.
The regime, on the other hand, is fed materiel aid by Russia and Iran, and manpower with the influx of Hezbollah fighters and Iranian Quds forces. These forces continue to train the now more than 50,000-strong Shabiha militia.
The materiel and personnel are believed to enter the country via the Lebanese and Iraqi borders and through airlifts.
IN SUMMARY, in analyzing the possible trajectories the Syrian conflict may follow, four major factors should be tracked: 1) Drastic changes in the opposition’s air defense & MANPADS capabilities; 2) Attrition of Assad’s air assets and praetorian units, along with robustness and consistency of foreign assistance by the Ba’athist regime’s allies and friends; 3) Shifts in the prospects of a no-fly zone in Syria; and 4) Developments concerning the WMD issues.[/quote]
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