We're probably not alone in the universe: One in Five Stars May Have Earth-Size, Potentially Habitab - Polidicks

[quote]NASA's Kepler space telescope, now crippled and its four-year mission at an end, nevertheless provided enough data to answer its main research question: How many of the 200 billion stars in our galaxy have potentially habitable planets? Based on a statistical analysis of all the Kepler observations, University of California, Berkeley, and University of Hawaii, Manoa, astronomers now estimate that one in five stars like the sun have planets about the size of Earth and a surface temperature conducive to life. Given that about 20 percent of stars are sun-like, the researchers say, that amounts to several tens of billions of potentially habitable, Earth-size planets in the Milky Way Galaxy.[/quote] [url]http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131104152720.htm[/url]

The Drake Equation.

-How many of those planets actually formed life? -How much of that life is sapient? -How much of that sapient life is civilization-building? -How many of those civilizations are industrialized? -How many of those industrial civilizations have reached the point of space flight? -How many of those space-faring civilizations would be willing to cooperate with us rather than go to war?

So, this data tells us that there are planets out there that 'may' support life ? Honestly, I thought we already knew this.

The article actually says its 20% of 20%. So 4%. Which is still a fucking lot. 20% of stars are sun-like, and 20% likely have earth sized planets that are nearly the same temperature.

Sometimes I just think about how everyday life is unfolding somewhere far far away on another planet.

double toast

This is just in the milkyway alone. With the rest of the universe, the mathematical odds just have to be too large for there not not be some other life forms somewhere out there

[QUOTE=Psychokitten;42762514]-How many of those planets actually formed life? -How much of that life is sapient? -How much of that sapient life is civilization-building? -How many of those civilizations are industrialized? -How many of those industrial civilizations have reached the point of space flight? -How many of those space-faring civilizations would be willing to cooperate with us rather than go to war?[/QUOTE] 7.

[QUOTE=The Rifleman;42762661]This is just in the milkyway alone. With the rest of the universe, the mathematical odds just have to be too large for there not not be some other life forms somewhere out there[/QUOTE] I've always operated on the assumption that it is statistically impossible for us to be the only sentient life in our own galaxy, let alone in the entire universe. Whether or not we can (or should) make contact with whoever else is out there is another can of worms entirely.

[QUOTE=Ekalektik_1;42762803]I've always operated on the assumption that it is statistically impossible for us to be the only sentient life in our own galaxy, let alone in the entire universe. Whether or not we can (or should) make contact with whoever else is out there is another can of worms entirely.[/QUOTE] I'm reminded of this whenever I think of it [IMG]http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/calvin-on-intelligent-life.jpg[/IMG] It seems impossible to be the only ones, but at the same time we've not gained the amount of technology to cross thevast distances of nothingness to see for ourselves. We're stuck at that annoying part of history where we've come a long way from clubbing each other on the head and thinking fire was a pretty neat thing, but we also have such a long way to go.

So what science is telling us is that we could be invaded and enslaved by an alien species at basically any moment Well let me just put in writing now that I totally support you guys please give me a cushy job

[QUOTE=Psychokitten;42762514]-How many of those planets actually formed life? -How much of that life is sapient? -How much of that sapient life is civilization-building? -How many of those civilizations are industrialized? -How many of those industrial civilizations have reached the point of space flight? -How many of those space-faring civilizations would be willing to cooperate with us rather than go to war?[/QUOTE] What are the chances that interstellar travel is actually practical?

[QUOTE=Zeke129;42763089]So what science is telling us is that we could be invaded and enslaved by an alien species at basically any moment Well let me just put in writing now that I totally support you guys please give me a cushy job[/QUOTE] If that's the case, then let me the first to tell you that as the (potential) leader of human resistance, you'll be first up against the wall and shot when the (eventual) revolution against our alien overlords happens.

Wouldn't it be crazy if eventually we visited some of these planets, and on them we found what are pretty much humans?

[QUOTE=Morbo!!!;42763176]Wouldn't it be crazy if eventually we visited some of these planets, and on them we found what are pretty much humans?[/QUOTE] Imagine, what if we finally visit some planets to find out that the aliens are idiots? We'd be the invading aliens with the fancypants technology. We always assume, all the time, that aliens by their very definition are smarter, more intelligent than us. But what if a great deal of them are,well, idiots?

So when the aliens do invade will we just know how to use their weapons like in games or is that just for whoever we elect to save us.

[QUOTE=snookypookums;42763202]Imagine, what if we finally visit some planets to find out that the aliens are idiots? We'd be the invading aliens with the fancypants technology. We always assume, all the time, that aliens by their very definition are smarter, more intelligent than us. But what if a great deal of them are,well, idiots?[/QUOTE] Or what if they're just animals The dominant species on an alien world might be a three headed duck

it would be frightening and weird if we were the only ones...like, what would be so special about our planet? solar system or origin? kinda nonsensical, but that idea just creeps me out since we are a relatively young planet, one would think ancient alien civilizations would have colonized the universe already.

I don't think the question really is "is there life on other planets". I think the questions are "how far away from us are the other planets with life", and "how likely is it that any of them will be intelligent life".

[QUOTE=Flameon;42762488]The Drake Equation.[/QUOTE] The Fermi Paradox. Humans have been around what, 200,000 years? Civilisation in some form for around 20,000? We've had simple cell life on earth for 3,500,000,000 years? It would take 100,000 years for us to cross the galaxy. We aren't just separated by distance, we are separated by time. The first time we find evidence of alien life it could be long dead, some orbital debris over a planet with barely a hint that it was ever inhabited. Human civilisation has only been rapid in the past 3000 years and we already have weapons of mass destruction, antibiotics have started to stop working, we could be decimated by asteroids, solar flares, climate change, supernovae. Maybe the galaxy is teeming with life on a cosmic time scale, but how many of them are around right now or within the next say, 100,000 years that we will come into contact with? We might get out there and basically just find a graveyard and infants. Maybe some day the first aliens to visit earth will walk over our bones millions of years down the line.

This also only accounts for planets with Earth-like conditions. It may be fully possible for life to evolve on environments we deem to be "extreme" like in the underground oceans of Europa or the atmosphere of a gas giant, or even completely different kinds of life (silicon based etc).

[QUOTE=Psychokitten;42762514] -How much of that life is sapient? -How much of that sapient life is civilization-building?[/QUOTE] Why do they have to be specifically monkeys? Surely it could be any sentient life.

[QUOTE=SeamanStains;42763425]The Fermi Paradox. Humans have been around what, 200,000 years? Civilisation in some form for around 20,000? We've had simple cell life on earth for 3,500,000,000 years? It would take 100,000 years for us to cross the galaxy. We aren't just separated by distance, we are separated by time. The first time we find evidence of alien life it could be long dead, some orbital debris over a planet with barely a hint that it was ever inhabited. Human civilisation has only been rapid in the past 3000 years and we already have weapons of mass destruction, antibiotics have started to stop working, we could be decimated by asteroids, solar flares, climate change, supernovae. Maybe the galaxy is teeming with life on a cosmic time scale, but how many of them are around right now or within the next say, 100,000 years that we will come into contact with? We might get out there and basically just find a graveyard and infants. Maybe some day the first aliens to visit earth will walk over our bones millions of years down the line.[/QUOTE] also when you consider the probability of any of our radio messages ever reaching life that's advanced enough to receive and decode them, pretty much all the practical ways of communicating are most likely completely useless. so even if life is mathematically likely, it's also mathematically unlikely that would be able to contact them at all.

It's not We're probably not alone in the universe. It's We're [B]not[/B] alone in the universe. If you think how fucking massive the universe is the Milky Way is only the size of a grain of sand compared to a large beach. You're telling me there isn't any other life in the universe? Fuck off.

[QUOTE=Flameon;42762488]The Drake Equation.[/QUOTE] ugh the drake equation isn't much better than a blind guess [editline]5th November 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=Cone;42764509]also when you consider the probability of any of our radio messages ever reaching life that's advanced enough to receive and decode them, pretty much all the practical ways of communicating are most likely completely useless. so even if life is mathematically likely, it's also mathematically unlikely that would be able to contact them at all.[/QUOTE] also inverse-square law

[QUOTE=Psychokitten;42762514]-How many of those planets actually formed life? -How much of that life is sapient? -How much of that sapient life is civilization-building? -How many of those civilizations are industrialized? -How many of those industrial civilizations have reached the point of space flight? -How many of those space-faring civilizations would be willing to cooperate with us rather than go to war?[/QUOTE] I know it makes for exciting movies and games and stuff but why does everyone assume an alien race with FTL travel would be interested in our Earth's resources so much they'd wage war on us? What do we have? Water? That's available elsewhere, too, IF a civilization capable of FTL can't synthesize it instead. Slaves? Humans are pretty squishy without technology and only start getting useful if they can work with tools - so you'd need to bring what's-in-your-eyes-cavemen up to speed with your tech level in order to make *some* use of them. Not to mention you need food they can digest, environmental protection suits synthesizing their planet's natural conditions, etc. If there's some advanced space-faring race out there that can reach us, it's probably just not gonna bother. We've always thought of ourselves as special until we found out how many there are like us, whether that means we go through puberty, discover the sun doesn't revolve around us, or that there's other habitable planets out there. Aliens would probably just think "oh great, another bunch of carbon units straining their planet to the max, how fucking fascinating." Also I find the thought of some alien megacorp putting a dyson sphere on our sun and moving on without even acknowledging our existence rather amusing.

We already knew this to an extent; the universe is far too large for Earth to be the only tree that bears fruit. But the chance of finding a sapient race in our local group is pretty low since there are a lot of planets out there, and even if we encounter a world harbouring intelligent life as opposed to just flora and fauna, the chances of them being on our tech level or close to it (Steam Engine<- Internet -> FTL) would be rather unlikely, and we would either descend upon cave-dwellers as the ancient astronauts, or be struck in awe at a kingdom of aetherial ascendants who have long since passed the singularity and transcended the flesh. In other words, if we encounter an alien sentience, they'll either be cavemen or angels, to paraphrase Arthur C. Clarke, with the possibility of encountering a race close to our tech level being rare, since humans spent most of their existence in the Stone Age and ever since agriculture arose many thousands of years ago we've been growing stronger and stronger. Speaking of which, it kinda seems like agriculture popped up around the end of the last Ice Age; d'you think it was merely coincidence that we discovered how to tame and grow crops when the ancient ice had thawed, or were there previous attempts at the hands of earlier tribes that failed due to the climate, and the "postdiluvian" tribes had better luck?

[QUOTE=benbb;42764589]It's not We're probably not alone in the universe. It's We're [B]not[/B] alone in the universe. If you think how fucking massive the universe is the Milky Way is only the size of a grain of sand compared to a large beach. You're telling me there isn't any other life in the universe? Fuck off.[/QUOTE] The question is if any of it is even remotely sentient. The chances of other life are astronomically high next to the chance of another civilization reaching the same point we have in development; or beyond. Who's to say Humans aren't just a hilarious fluke, and nature is actually balanced in other planets?

[QUOTE=Marik Bentusi;42764729]I know it makes for exciting movies and games and stuff but why does everyone assume an alien race with FTL travel would be interested in our Earth's resources so much they'd wage war on us? What do we have? Water? That's available elsewhere, too, IF a civilization capable of FTL can't synthesize it instead. Slaves? Humans are pretty squishy without technology and only start getting useful if they can work with tools - so you'd need to bring what's-in-your-eyes-cavemen up to speed with your tech level in order to make *some* use of them. Not to mention you need food they can digest, environmental protection suits synthesizing their planet's natural conditions, etc. If there's some advanced space-faring race out there that can reach us, it's probably just not gonna bother. We've always thought of ourselves as special until we found out how many there are like us, whether that means we go through puberty, discover the sun doesn't revolve around us, or that there's other habitable planets out there. Aliens would probably just think "oh great, another bunch of carbon units straining their planet to the max, how fucking fascinating." Also I find the thought of some alien megacorp putting a dyson sphere on our sun and moving on without even acknowledging our existence rather amusing.[/QUOTE] There are other reasons for going to war beyond resources. Honor and Fear, to name two of them. If they deem us dangerous our find our presence insulting...