Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds
102 replies, posted
[quote]The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.
Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.[/quote]
Source: [url]http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-polls-20151221-story.html[/url]
......cannot trump the stump
I was going to make the joke that his supporters can't figure out how to use the internet when I read the title. Then I read the article. Fuck my life. The notion that they recognize how embarrassing it is and don't admit to it is much worse.
By now I'm pretty sure the polls can't be trusted at all anyway
I'm not gonna say that there's necessarily trolls involved, but when the disparity between real life polls and internet polls exists, perhaps there's people just fucking around.
Well, we had a good run, guys.
[quote]"less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human”[/quote]
That's a pretty big damn sign you're supporting the WRONG candidate.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;49370300]That's a pretty big damn sign you're supporting the WRONG candidate.[/QUOTE]
There isn't exactly a right candidate.
Unless its Bernie.
I don't know, I think part of the reason why those numbers exist is because the people who normally wouldn't even bother either way are just saying "DOLAN TROMP" because it's a name they recognize. A lot of people in this country [I]don't actually vote[/I] and even more people don't even know what the fuck is going on, by now everyone should know this guy's name so maybe they're just flocking to that.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
[QUOTE=Jamsponge;49370230]Well, we had a good run, guys.[/QUOTE]We?[quote][url]https://facepunch.com/fp/flags/gb.png[/url][/quote]
Oh no you don't you tricky bastard! This is an America-only bitching thread, you've got to have at least a hamburger and two guns to bitch here. Change that flag into a maple leaf though and we'll let you sit in the corner.
[QUOTE=Sableye;49370152]By now I'm pretty sure the polls can't be trusted at all anyway[/QUOTE]
[url=http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine]The New Yorker ran a good article about the trouble with polls and Trump last month[/url], and I'd encourage everyone here to check it out. Basically, they're shit; at least most of them are anyway.
So look like Trump May be the Nominee... Welp time for another Democratic President... Note: The Election May happen be an unoffical one in the Democratic Primary.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
[QUOTE=Govna;49370475][url=http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine]The New Yorker ran a good article about the trouble with polls and Trump last month[/url], and I'd encourage everyone here to check it out. Basically, they're shit; at least most of them are anyway.[/QUOTE]
That is what I thought at the start of the presidency polls on BOTH sides!
I'm listening to FOX radio right now and they aren't too happy about Trump and Cruz being in the limelight :v:
I'm confident Trump won't get the support he needs.
Why do they have a problem with Cruz?
[QUOTE=wauterboi;49370633]Why do they have a problem with Cruz?[/QUOTE]
Ted Cruz right now is Donald Trump-lite, basically he absorbed most of Donald Trumps ideas that are succeeding in the GOP voter base. The GOP know they cannot have Trump OR Cruz as a nominee otherwise they already lost the election.
[QUOTE=wauterboi;49370633]Why do they have a problem with Cruz?[/QUOTE]
Cruz is even worse than Trump in all but a few respects.
[QUOTE=wauterboi;49370633]Why do they have a problem with Cruz?[/QUOTE]
Where Trump says stupid things, but then takes relatively moderate positions, Cruz says smart things, then takes relatively radical positions.
Neither are the sort of person you want in office.
*Both relatives are relative to the Republican Party itself.
I really don't have any love for Trump but after seeing his Jimmy Kimmel interview I fear some people are underestimating his draw. Not saying he's a definite win or anything, but apart from that New Yorker article I keep hearing how the support he has is just hot air but not much evidence to support that.
Not taking your adversary seriously seems like the perfect way to lose. Apart from the sensationalised headlines we get exposed to (because our view is almost as biased as we think of Trump supporters) he makes points that could resonate well with voters and sugar coats his extreme views in easily palatable ways, in short a good-ish politician. His celebrity status and money just add more to his appeal to certain people.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong on every count and that he is really a joke that will amount to nothing, but being too flippant can't be a good thing.
Looking at the posts in this thread being predominantly anti-Trump, you can see why people wouldn't admit to liking him in person. There is such a stigma to supporting him that this, coupled with the recent tendency for the left to act in an authoritarian manner, would obviously lead college-educated adults to be shy in admitting support. I, for one, have a number of friends who have said that they wouldn't associate with anyone who supports even one of Trump's policies, so I stay relatively quiet on the matter (I like his protectionist stance on an economic level). Sure they're authoritarian lefties but I like their company when we aren't talking politics.
I know I'm from the UK and so don't have any skin in the election, however its interesting to watch and to some extent affects me through the international repercussions of the election.
[QUOTE=technologic;49370863]Looking at the posts in this thread being predominantly anti-Trump, you can see why people wouldn't admit to liking him in person. There is such a stigma to supporting him that this, coupled with the recent tendency for the left to act in an authoritarian manner, would obviously lead college-educated adults to be shy in admitting support. I, for one, have a number of friends who have said that they wouldn't associate with anyone who supports even one of Trump's policies, so I stay relatively quiet on the matter (I like his protectionist stance on an economic level). Sure they're authoritarian lefties but I like their company when we aren't talking politics.
I know I'm from the UK and so don't have any skin in the election, however its interesting to watch and to some extent affects me through the international repercussions of the election.[/QUOTE]
odd how you're so concerned about "authoritarian lefties" despite Trump calling for the closing of all mosques and maintaining a database noting everyone's religious affiliations
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
no wonder your friends would be upset given your warped reality and preference of economics over human rights
I refuse to believe the people who are voting for Trump at this point aren't just contrarians who can't cope with being wrong or don't like going back on a joke
[QUOTE=Aredbomb;49370692]Cruz is even worse than Trump in all but a few respects.[/QUOTE]
Cruz says the exact same shit but phrases it a different way. He wants to ban people from immigrating from Iran/Syria but says "Give me the Christians!".
I think offending all the various groups is part of his strategy and that after the republican primaries he will be more moderate. It's really awful that a candidate can't win in the US if it's not running under on of the two parties. So if you are financially conservative you have to run under Republican. I trust someone who runs their mouth a lot more than someone who is idealistic. It is a feature he's not a politician and appears to have the backbone to negotiate.
I'm probably not going to vote as they all seem to be bad people for one reason or another, but I am confident in Sanders not winning. I've avoided most politician discussions I've encountered at college. as usually it's a shitfest of shitting on Trump and or Cruz. If he is irreverent please stop talking about him.
[QUOTE=bitches;49370900]odd how you're so concerned about "authoritarian lefties" despite Trump calling for the closing of all mosques and maintaining a database noting everyone's religious affiliations
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
no wonder your friends would be upset given your warped reality and preference of economics over human rights[/QUOTE]
I think your reaction more than validates his fears.
He agrees with a relatively minor portion of Trump's platform, [B]i.e.[/B] Economic Protectionism.
For that simple agreement, you've decided he has a warped sense of reality, and that his beliefs are tantamount to harboring fascist ideals.
This is a very real phenomena of "authoritarian leftism."
Many people who are otherwise reasonable, or thoughtful, suddenly become spitefully vitriolic and insist on a single public order when someone dares to hold with or support an ideologically impure position.
There are a dozen ways I could demonstrate this. I could say, "I agree with the Nazi position of environmental stewardship," and would immediately be mocked because of the associate connection with no critical reflection on what I just espoused. However, more and more people [I]do[/I] actually believe in something like, "The government, on behalf of the people and the good of all society, must create a greener, healthier world for us to inhabit and treat the environment as a responsibility rather than an exploitability."
In the same way, there is no way to say in certain company, "I think Donald Trump has a good point," without literally risking your friendship or social status. That is ridiculous and hegemonic. It even defies the old platitude that, "A broken clock can be right twice a day," because of the opposition's insistence that the clock doesn't even have hands.
It's not an ill [B]exclusive[/B] to left wing ideologues, but it is one that should not be present at all among people who believe in representation, democracy, and self-expression regardless of political orientation. Embracing that ill as a good, or even as some sort of personal creedo is by-the-numbers adherence to authoritarian idealism.
Have a video from our dear Max Kolonko, he gives some insight on the matter(turn the subtitles on).
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVV28heyow[/media]
[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49370328]I don't know, I think part of the reason why those numbers exist is because the people who normally wouldn't even bother either way are just saying "DOLAN TROMP" because it's a name they recognize. A lot of people in this country [I]don't actually vote[/I] and even more people don't even know what the fuck is going on, by now everyone should know this guy's name so maybe they're just flocking to that.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
We?
Oh no you don't you tricky bastard! This is an America-only bitching thread, you've got to have at least a hamburger and two guns to bitch here. Change that flag into a maple leaf though and we'll let you sit in the corner.[/QUOTE]
I meant 'we' as in Earth. What happens in America tends to have at least [I]some[/I] effect on pretty much the entire planet, so electing a xenophobe who unironically wants to ban 1.6 billion people from his country because of a book they may or may not read 'until immigration is reformed' (violating the First Amendment which guarantees freedom of religion and specific religions not to be a basis for laws), and would deport the families of illegal Mexicans regardless of whether they themselves were legal? His policies are based on the fears of many Americans and proposing ultra-radical solutions to them. He's not the bogeyman, but he's not somebody I'd personally want in office in a country which has major dealings with my own.
[QUOTE=Crazy Ivan;49371128]I think your reaction more than validates his fears.
He agrees with a relatively minor portion of Trump's platform, [B]i.e.[/B] Economic Protectionism.
For that simple agreement, you've decided he has a warped sense of reality, and that his beliefs are tantamount to harboring fascist ideals.
This is a very real phenomena of "authoritarian leftism."
Many people who are otherwise reasonable, or thoughtful, suddenly become spitefully vitriolic and insist on a single public order when someone dares to hold with or support an ideologically impure position.
There are a dozen ways I could demonstrate this. I could say, "I agree with the Nazi position of environmental stewardship," and would immediately be mocked because of the associate connection with no critical reflection on what I just espoused. However, more and more people [I]do[/I] actually believe in something like, "The government, on behalf of the people and the good of all society, must create a greener, healthier world for us to inhabit and treat the environment as a responsibility rather than an exploitability."
In the same way, there is no way to say in certain company, "I think Donald Trump has a good point," without literally risking your friendship or social status. That is ridiculous and hegemonic. It even defies the old platitude that, "A broken clock can be right twice a day," because of the opposition's insistence that the clock doesn't even have hands.
It's not an ill [B]exclusive[/B] to left wing ideologues, but it is one that should not be present at all among people who believe in representation, democracy, and self-expression regardless of political orientation. Embracing that ill as a good, or even as some sort of personal creedo is by-the-numbers adherence to authoritarian idealism.[/QUOTE]
I understand that I'm not representing him in an unbiased manner, but I feel it important to focus specifically upon the most dangerous possible context given ambiguity. I don't mean to respond to him as a person over the internet as much as to a specific idea to highlight it's faults. In this case, I responded to his (even accidental) implication that the left is more authoritarian than the right (or Trump in particular), because this is a thing that people actually believe.
[QUOTE=bitches;49371541]I understand that I'm not representing him in an unbiased manner, but I feel it important to focus specifically upon the most dangerous possible context given ambiguity. I don't mean to respond to him as a person over the internet as much as to a specific idea to highlight it's faults. In this case, I responded to his (even accidental) implication that the left is more authoritarian than the right (or Trump in particular), because this is a thing that people actually believe.[/QUOTE]
The average person is controlled more by the left than the right, hence the view that the left is more authoritarian.
The simple fact that the left wants to take more of your money, regulate everything you do to a higher degree (beyond a few specific examples like drug use), etc. is simply way more relevant to normal people than whether the government can collect meta-data or whether it stops certain people from coming into the country.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
Just as a simple example: my grandparents have recently had to go through a huge legal issue because their 80+ year old building didn't have a regulation size handicap space and some random dude sued them for it (who is known in the area for going into old buildings trying to find minutely illegal things. It's literally what he does as a job). It's been a huge multi-year hassle for something that has never been a problem, and will likely never be a problem for anyone who isn't looking for lawsuits. The democrats/liberals just happen to be the party that passes this sort of thing.
That's just one example of regular people been pretty largely affected by liberal regulation policies, and this sort of things is ridiculously common for any type of business person.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
Another example: I have a family member that works for the pharmaceutical industry and they aren't even legally allowed to directly compare drug to drug studies anymore with doctors. Again, this crazy regulation comes from the left.
[QUOTE=technologic;49370863]Looking at the posts in this thread being predominantly anti-Trump, you can see why people wouldn't admit to liking him in person. There is such a stigma to supporting him that this, coupled with the recent tendency for the left to act in an authoritarian manner, would obviously lead college-educated adults to be shy in admitting support. I, for one, have a number of friends who have said that they wouldn't associate with anyone who supports even one of Trump's policies, so I stay relatively quiet on the matter (I like his protectionist stance on an economic level). Sure they're authoritarian lefties but I like their company when we aren't talking politics.
I know I'm from the UK and so don't have any skin in the election, however its interesting to watch and to some extent affects me through the international repercussions of the election.[/QUOTE]
Trumps detestability is almost bipartisan, you can't really just single out the SJWs for being contemptuous of Trump supporters when even a good amount of people on the right hate him.
[QUOTE=Mingebox;49371637]Trumps detestability is almost bipartisan, you can't really just single out the SJWs for being contemptuous of Trump supporters when even a good amount of people on the right hate him.[/QUOTE]
Every well-read conservative I know absolutely despises Trump, even to the point of saying that they won't vote for him even if he wins the nomination.
[QUOTE=sgman91;49371563]The average person is controlled more by the left than the right, hence the view that the left is more authoritarian.
The simple fact that the left wants to take more of your money, regulate everything you do to a higher degree (beyond a few specific examples like drug use), etc. is simply way more relevant to normal people than whether the government can collect meta-data or whether it stops certain people from coming into the country.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
Just as a simple example: my grandparents have recently had to go through a huge legal issue because their 80+ year old building didn't have a regulation size handicap space and some random dude sued them for it (who is known in the area for going into old buildings trying to find minutely illegal things. It's literally what he does as a job). It's been a huge multi-year hassle for something that has never been a problem, and will likely never be a problem for anyone who isn't looking for lawsuits. The democrats/liberals just happen to be the party that passes this sort of thing.
That's just one example of regular people been pretty largely affected by liberal regulation policies, and this sort of things is ridiculously common for any type of business person.
[editline]22nd December 2015[/editline]
Another example: I have a family member that works for the pharmaceutical industry and they aren't even legally allowed to directly compare drug to drug studies anymore with doctors. Again, this crazy regulation comes from the left.[/QUOTE]
You're 100% right, but no one else here will agree with us.
[QUOTE=viper shtf;49371986]You're 100% right, but no one else here will agree with us.[/QUOTE]
Come on now, there's a lot of people who lurk here who are a lot more reasonable than you're giving them credit for.
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