• 25% chance of US recession in next 6 months
    38 replies, posted
[t]https://drawception.com/pub/panels/2013/4-25/8cOQsRQ5O4-6.png[/t] [quote]Wells Fargo analysts warn that the probability of a U.S. recession is more than 25 percent during the next six months, the highest since the Great Recession era. [/quote] [url]http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/wells-fargo-economy-recession-months/2016/03/29/id/721389/[/url] [url]http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp[/url] [url]http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/a-recession-worse-than-2008-is-coming-commentary.html[/url] [url]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11f38928-ca6f-11e5-be0b-b7ece4e953a0.html[/url] Also features spin off "European recession with additional austerity addon pack" [url]http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/the-next-recession/[/url] [url]https://www.socialeurope.eu/2016/04/preparing-europes-next-recession/[/url] [quote]ince the beginning of the year, the markets have been behaving as if there was another recession looming. The price of oil has been falling drastically — dropping from $65 a barrel last May to under $40 now. Rumours have been swirling around some of the banks, most notably Deutsche Bank, the rock on which the German economy (and by extension the European economy as well) is built. It has all started to feel very 2008, and for a fairly simple reason — because it may well be. ... As it turns out, this final sentence summed things up the best. There was growth but a whole lot of debt as well. The national debt today stands at £1,580 billion, some 50 per cent more than the Chancellor inherited ... Over the seven years since the crash, the world has added as much to its total borrowings as it did in the seven years before the crash. And if the crash was a debt crisis, the work on fixing it has not even begun. Instead, the entire world has been running up yet more debt at a faster rate than ever, with the UK right at the front of the pack.[/quote] Also china. [quote=the world]please economy not again, we're still recovering from the last time you did this[/quote] [sp]how do i get permission to say something like "the great capitalism experiment has failed"[/sp]
We would have recovered faster if the various nations didn't prop up floundering businesses and prolong their deaths.
Holy shit, Ghost was right.
The issue is not our own economy, it's the rest of the world currently. Our job market is looking stronger than it has in decades, let alone since the 2008 crisis. Our economy has almost completely recovered if not gotten stronger since then. The problem lies with the world market: China's growth is slowing down pretty hard, Brazil's economy has turned for the worst (they're considered the world's second worst economy atm, right after Venezuela), and Europe isn't looking too well either. Sooner or later this is going to effect the US. So most economists are pretty grim about our future currently. example: [url]http://www.wsj.com/articles/healthy-job-market-at-odds-with-global-gloom-1459357330[/url]
So less jobs than before right? Great.
In Europe and a few other parts of the world we fucked up our recovery with massive austerity programs and didn't actually do a thing about what caused the last recession, underregulated banks. In fact, we had three recessions in quick succession here because the government fucked up so hard. Experts here have been saying to expect another recession in the UK for the last year or so. We've got a huge housing crisis, shrinking wages, increasing disparity and a destruction of welfare. Hopefully it's going to mean the end of the neo-libs grip of power.
[QUOTE=CrumbleShake;50046768]In Europe and a few other parts of the world we fucked up our recovery with massive austerity programs and didn't actually do a thing about what caused the last recession, underregulated banks. In fact, we had three recessions in quick succession here because the government fucked up so hard. Experts here have been saying to expect another recession in the UK for the last year or so. We've got a huge housing crisis, shrinking wages, increasing disparity and a destruction of welfare. Hopefully it's going to mean the end of the neo-libs grip of power.[/QUOTE] They'll blame labour, the papers will support them the the british people will continue to vote for them.
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;50046637]Wells Fargo[/QUOTE] nothing to see here folks
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;50046810]They'll blame labour, the papers will support them the the british people will continue to vote for them.[/QUOTE] The Tories have been doing a great job of making themselves very unpopular lately. Cameron's lukewarm EU deal, several high profile policy backtracks, and the resignation of IDS over budget proposals have unsurprisingly not gone down well with either the general public or the party's backbenchers.
a lot of the underlying economic indicators are pretty bad these days, and there's a lot of uncertainty up ahead
[QUOTE=ForgottenKane;50046741]The issue is not our own economy, it's the rest of the world currently. Our job market is looking stronger than it has in decades, let alone since the 2008 crisis. Our economy has almost completely recovered if not gotten stronger since then. The problem lies with the world market: China's growth is slowing down pretty hard, Brazil's economy has turned for the worst (they're considered the world's second worst economy atm, right after Venezuela), and Europe isn't looking too well either. Sooner or later this is going to effect the US. So most economists are pretty grim about our future currently. example: [url]http://www.wsj.com/articles/healthy-job-market-at-odds-with-global-gloom-1459357330[/url][/QUOTE] You're right about everywhere else being messed up but the US isn't without issues. (from link in op) [quote=investopedia]The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in January, the lowest level since the crisis began. But that so-called headline unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers who have taken on temporary or part-time work to make ends meet.[/quote] Employment alone is a poor metric, only good if you want to brag about something. Quality of employment should be taken into account.
Please don't tell me this is related to the big debt bubble everyone was "encouraged" to create with these low interest rates Fuck
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;50046857]You're right about everywhere else being messed up but the US isn't without issues. (from link in op) Employment alone is a poor metric, only good if you want to brag about something. Quality of employment should be taken into account.[/QUOTE] The unemployment rate also doesn't count the amount of people who quit looking for employment all together.
[QUOTE=Wiggles;50046847]The Tories have been doing a great job of making themselves very unpopular lately. Cameron's lukewarm EU deal, several high profile policy backtracks, and the resignation of IDS over budget proposals have unsurprisingly not gone down well with either the general public or the party's backbenchers.[/QUOTE] The general public are either: 1) Too apathetic to vote 2) Too scared of the communist, terrorist, facist, vegetarian, immigrant sympathetic corbyn. 3) Too damn stupid to think for themselves after read the daily mail/sun/telegraph all they need to do is shed cameron then feign some new leader coming on to "fix stuff up".
[QUOTE=Sableye;50046871]Please don't tell me this is related to the big debt bubble everyone was "encouraged" to create with these low interest rates Fuck[/QUOTE]but its so fun to make money out of money
[QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;50046874]The unemployment rate also doesn't count the amount of people who quit looking for employment all together.[/QUOTE] IIRC, "people looking for employment" is only counted if someone looked in the past 3 to 4 weeks, which I think is abysmally bad for taking account of. It should be the past 6 to 12 months.
Yeah, theyve been saying its coming for the past few months. Itd be disastorous on all levels if one did happen.
[QUOTE=Durandal;50047081]Yeah, theyve been saying its coming for the past few months. Itd be disastorous on all levels if one did happen.[/QUOTE] Take out some short options and make the most of it
[QUOTE=Medevila;50047215]what a low-risk (and low certainty) prediction, if it falls through in 6 months no one will give a shit[/QUOTE] Yes, but if it does...
How can you rack up £750m more debt when everything you do is aimed towards austerity blergh. [QUOTE=ForgottenKane;50046741]The issue is not our own economy, it's the rest of the world currently. Our job market is looking stronger than it has in decades, let alone since the 2008 crisis. Our economy has almost completely recovered if not gotten stronger since then.[/QUOTE] So do markets have to continuously grow for a strong economy? Is stability not ideal? Genuinely asking, know very little about this.
[QUOTE=Occlusion;50047224] So do markets have to continuously grow for a strong economy? Is stability not ideal? Genuinely asking, know very little about this.[/QUOTE] It's fairly complex, more so than I can understand, but I'm pretty certain that a growing economy is the only healthy economy.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50047221]Yes, but if it does...[/QUOTE] The chance is always there, there's little reason to point that out. There's also a chance for the economy to go into a great upswing. Nobody really knows, and even the economic experts are just stipulating.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50047255]It's fairly complex, more so than I can understand, but I'm pretty certain that a growing economy is the only healthy economy.[/QUOTE] Markets not growing => no incentive to invest => money stagnating => huge inflation => money worth nothing [sp]The government would hopefully step in before that though[/sp] So yeah to be successful you require constant growth. Infact just to tick over you need constant growth. [editline]1st April 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=Protocol7;50047263]The chance is always there, there's little reason to point that out. There's also a chance for the economy to go into a great upswing. Nobody really knows, and even the economic experts are just stipulating.[/QUOTE] One of the concerns is that the usual safeguards against recession aren't in place. The fed doesn't have any room to manoeuvre since the interest rate is still low. Look up a list of recessions in the US, there is one every 5-7 years, sometimes big sometimes small. Its not a matter of if its a matter of when; and the worry is that the signs they discuss in the links in op suggest it might be a major recession. High US/UK/EU/China debt exacerbates the effect of a recession, more debt you have the more you stand to lose if your economy takes a dive.
[QUOTE=Protocol7;50047263]The chance is always there, there's little reason to point that out. There's also a chance for the economy to go into a great upswing. Nobody really knows, and even the economic experts are just stipulating.[/QUOTE] While markets and the economy depend on speculation to a degree, I find it hard to believe that it's completely impossible to predict an economic future on some level and they're not "just stipulating" for the hell of it.
Pretty sure this is an April Fools joke...
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;50046857]Employment alone is a poor metric, only good if you want to brag about something. Quality of employment should be taken into account.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Silence I Kill You;50046874]The unemployment rate also doesn't count the amount of people who quit looking for employment all together.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;50047056]IIRC, "people looking for employment" is only counted if someone looked in the past 3 to 4 weeks, which I think is abysmally bad for taking account of. It should be the past 6 to 12 months.[/QUOTE] You know the BLS does publish that though, right? [IMG]http://snowmew.me/i/160401111839.png[/IMG] This includes everyone who is unemployed regardless of the unemployment period, looking for work or not, plus people who are working shitty jobs because they can't find good ones.
[QUOTE=Shirky;50047395]Pretty sure this is an April Fools joke...[/QUOTE] I thought that might be the case when i read it this morning but the dates for the various articles in source are Wednesday, 30 Mar Updated March 08, 2016 Friday, 15 Jan 2016
75% chance of no recession? Sounds alright
[QUOTE=Snowmew;50047439]You know the BLS does publish that though, right? [IMG]http://snowmew.me/i/160401111839.png[/IMG] This includes everyone who is unemployed regardless of the unemployment period, looking for work or not, plus people who are working shitty jobs because they can't find good ones.[/QUOTE] Yes. This one is correct, not the one saying 4.9%.
[QUOTE=mdeceiver79;50046810]They'll blame labour, the papers will support them the the british people will continue to vote for them.[/QUOTE] I don't think the people are going to buy it after 6 years of Conservative government. Certainly not enough people will buy it for them to keep winning elections.
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