[quote]
[img]http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110307/capt.0d359787dc5e4c7e99b3c3529166f477-0d359787dc5e4c7e99b3c3529166f477-0.jpg?x=213&y=99&xc=1&yc=1&wc=409&hc=190&q=85&sig=5t5o_wZ_L2NOD92m4uUTBg--[/img]
WASHINGTON – When China launched threatening war games off Taiwan 15 years ago on the eve of an election on the self-governing island, the U.S. deployed two aircraft carriers, and China quickly backed down.
Things don't seem so one-sided any more.
China's military has been on a spending spree at a time that the debt-ridden U.S. government is looking to cut defense costs. On Friday, China announced a 12.7 percent hike for this year, the latest in a string of double-digit increases.
That trend has triggered worries in Congress and among security analysts about whether the United States can maintain its decades-long military predominance in the economically crucial Asia-Pacific.
While the U.S. military has been drained by 10 years of costly conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, China has developed air, naval and missile capabilities that could undercut U.S. superiority in China's backyard.
China is still decades away from building a military as strong as the United States. It has not fought a major conflict since a border war with Vietnam in 1979 and is not a Soviet-style rival threatening American soil.
But the shift raises questions about whether the U.S. can meet its commitment to maintain a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific for decades — a matter not just of global prestige but also seen as critical for safeguarding shipping lanes vital for world trade and protecting allies.
China already has an innate geographical advantage in any conflict in the west Pacific. One expert posits that with its military buildup, China could conquer Taiwan by the end of the decade even if the U.S. military intervenes.
China regards Taiwan as part of its territory. Relations between the two, long seen as a potential flash point, have warmed in the past two years. But China's assertion of territorial claims in the South China Sea, which it has declared as a "core interest" — essentially something it could go to war over — has spooked its neighbors and fortified their support for a strong U.S. presence in the region. Even former enemy Vietnam is forging military ties with the U.S.
Last week, the Philippines deployed two warplanes after a ship searching for oil complained it was harassed by two Chinese patrol boats in the South China Sea. Japan scrambled F-15 fighter jets after Chinese surveillance and anti-submarine aircraft flew near disputed islands in the East China Sea.
"As China's military has gotten more capable and China has behaved more aggressively, a number of countries are looking at the U.S. as a hedge to make sure they can maintain independence, security and stability," said Abraham Denmark, director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
But those allies question whether the U.S. can retain its freedom to operate in the region, and whether its economy — highly indebted to China and struggling to recover from a recession — can sustain its high level of military spending, said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center of Strategic and International Studies think tank.
The U.S. Pacific Command has 325,000 personnel, five aircraft carrier strike groups, 180 ships and nearly 2,000 aircraft. Tens of thousands of forces stay on China's doorstep at long-established bases in South Korea and Japan.
China's defense spending is still dwarfed by the United States. Even if China really invests twice as much in its military as its official $91.5 billion budget, which some analysts believe, that is still only about a quarter of U.S. spending. It has no aircraft carriers and lags the U.S. in defense technology. Some of its most vaunted recent military advances will take years to reach operation.
For example, China test flew its stealth fighter in January, months earlier than U.S. intelligence expected, but U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says China will still only have a couple of hundred of these "fifth-generation" jets by 2025, when the United States should have 1,500.
But China's growing array of aircraft, naval and submarine vessels, ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-satellite and cyber war capabilities already enable it to project power beyond its shores. It plans new submarines, larger naval destroyers and transport aircraft that could expand that reach further.
Roger Cliff, a respected defense researcher who recently testified before a congressional hearing on China, says many of the missiles and strike aircraft have a range of about 900 miles, which put them within attacking distance of virtually all U.S. air and naval bases in the region. They include the DF-21D missile which is designed to target aircraft carriers. It employs technology that no other U.S. rival has mastered. It does not appear to have been tested yet against a maneuvering target at sea.
Cliff said if trends continue, China should have sufficient missiles and precision bombs by the end of the decade to render inoperable for a week or more all airfields on Taiwan and U.S. air bases in Okinawa, Japan, and possibly others farther away. He said there are between 40 and 50 Chinese air bases within 500 miles of Taiwan, each generally hosting a squadron of 24 aircraft, which could overwhelm superior U.S. aircraft through sheer numbers. If China acquired amphibious landing vehicles, he forecast it could conquer Taiwan.
If U.S. military planners are worried about that possibility, they aren't showing it. They say plans to cap defense spending within five years won't derail modernization plans. Pacific Command chief Adm. Robert Willard said last month that while the U.S. carefully watches China's growing military capabilities — and urges greater openness from China about them — the United States does not need to change its strategy.
China maintains it does not have offensive intentions, and analysts say that military action in the region would hurt its export-driven economy which could threaten what its government prizes above all else — domestic stability. The U.S. military presence may also benefit China as it restrains neighbors like South Korea and Japan from seeking nuclear weapons.
As U.S. and Chinese forces increasingly rub up against each other in the west Pacific, the U.S. says it wants to promote military ties with China to prevent a chance skirmish and for China to develop as a "responsible major power." To date, China has been reluctant to engage meaningfully after the recent restoration of military ties that were cut over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
"This is not the Cold War with two rival camps facing each other," said Michael Schiffer, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia. "We are seeking a military-military relationship that is broad and deep enough to manage our differences while expanding on areas of common interest."
[/quote]
[url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110307/ap_on_re_us/us_us_china_military_rivalry]Source[/url]
TL;DR Each passing day US government and other world powers, grow worried over china growing military.
[img]http://th04.deviantart.net/fs45/150/f/2009/131/3/1/Vault_Boy_from_Fallout_3_by_Toxic317.jpg[/img]
[i]It only a matter of time boys and gals.[/i]
China has such a larger possible GDP
China is mostly isolationist and have no interest in military matters that stretch beyond its own borders (bar cases In Kasmir and of course there distanced cousins Taiwan) If anything it just looks like a bit of muscle flexing.
[QUOTE=Mabus;28472748]China is mostly isolationist and have no interest in military matters that stretch beyond its own borders (bar cases In Kasmir and of course there distanced cousins Taiwan) If anything it just looks like a bit of muscle flexing.[/QUOTE]
Exactly this, their imperial intentions are entirely limited to controlling dissident ethnic groups, and the possible reunification with Taiwan (even though 50% of the RoC's export trade [B]is to the PRC[/B] anyway). And turning backing the millions of DPRK refugees when that regime collapses.
I can see Fallout happening if China decides to go full retard.
[QUOTE=Mabus;28472748]China is mostly isolationist and have no interest in military matters that stretch beyond its own borders (bar cases In Kasmir and of course there distanced cousins Taiwan) If anything it just looks like a bit of muscle flexing.[/QUOTE]
Yep.
And I don't think it's strange that China can challenge USA close to its own territories.
[editline]7th March 2011[/editline]
[QUOTE=MrHeadHopper;28472867]I can see Fallout happening if China decides to go full retard.[/QUOTE]
More like if the US decides to go full retard. I mean sending 2 carriers because China was having exercises? Look what US is doing close to NK right now. (No I don't endorse NK)
[img]http://i50.tinypic.com/otmelg.gif[/img]
[highlight](User was banned for this post ("image macro/meme crap" - Starpluck))[/highlight]
[QUOTE=Swebonny;28472888]Yep.
And I don't think it's strange that China can challenge USA close to its own territories.
[editline]7th March 2011[/editline]
More like if the US decides to go full retard. I mean sending 2 carriers because China was having exercises 15 years ago? Look what US is doing close to NK right now. (No I don't protect NK)[/QUOTE]
China has been doing a whole lot of stuff since, as well.
For example in the 2004 Taiwanese elections, they fired missiles into the sea above Taiwan as part of a missile test. Ironically, then the RoC people voted in an anti-mainland China govt. (which is why they didn't do it again in 2008, and then a pro-reunification party won).
[editline]8th March 2011[/editline]
[QUOTE=Madman_Andre;28472893][img_thumb]http://i50.tinypic.com/otmelg.gif[/img_thumb]
[highlight](User was banned for this post ("image macro/meme crap" - Starpluck))[/highlight][/QUOTE]
I was just about to write 'skating around a ban there', and then I see in the edit-quote.
Ty for ninja starpluck, ty.
I remember when i was a kid hearing on the news that the US could possibly be at war with China by 2030
There will be no war because both powers would be destroyed economically and militarily, and neither side would have anything to gain.
They are just building up military so they can say "we have bigger army than the US".
There would be no profit for them to attack anywhere.
Just balancing the power in pacific with the US.
[QUOTE=Explosions;28472991]There will be no war because both powers would be destroyed economically and militarily, and neither side would have anything to gain.[/QUOTE]
Except China being captured easily by Best Korea,everyone likes that right?
One should consider the rise of other military powers near China.
And historically china never even cared about the west.
It's quite possible China at one point will once again be the super power of the world.
Can't wait for China to surpass America. Gonna be a nice change.
[QUOTE=sami-elite;28473209]One should consider the rise of other military powers near China.
And historically china never even cared about the west.
It's quite possible China at one point will once again be the super power of the world.[/QUOTE]
China was never a superpower, as one of the criteria of superpower status is cultural proliferation, which China was, and is no too fond of.
[editline]8th March 2011[/editline]
[QUOTE=Falchion;28473236]Can't wait for China to surpass America. Gonna be a nice change.[/QUOTE]
That's a somewhat unlikely scenario due to rising middle class of China.
[QUOTE=Contag;28473349]That's a somewhat unlikely scenario due to rising middle class of China.[/QUOTE]
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_Superpowers#China[/url]
[QUOTE=Melnek;28473583][url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_Superpowers#China[/url][/QUOTE]
How is Brazil a super power. It says its considered by some, I wouldn't even put it in the top 10.
(S)He who controls the the oil should be considered.
In the 23th, 24th, or 25th century (s)he who controls the fresh water will become super power or rich. One of the two, after all fresh water will become rare.
[QUOTE=Contag;28472916]China has been doing a whole lot of stuff since, as well.
For example in the 2004 Taiwanese elections, they fired missiles into the sea above Taiwan as part of a missile test. Ironically, then the RoC people voted in an anti-mainland China govt. (which is why they didn't do it again in 2008, and then a pro-reunification party won).
[/QUOTE]
Interesting. I know China has been practicing just like the US is doing now when relation between two nations are tense, but I didn't know they shot missiles over Taiwan.
[QUOTE=Aide;28473621]How is Brazil a super power. It says its considered by some, I wouldn't even put it in the top 10.
(S)He who controls the the oil should be considered.
In the 23th, 24th, or 25th century (s)he who controls the fresh water will become super power or rich. One of the two, after all fresh water will become rare.[/QUOTE]
India and Brazil have the potential to be the next superpowers, easily.
[QUOTE=Melnek;28473583][url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_Superpowers#China[/url][/QUOTE]
That is based on nominal (or PPP) economic power alone, and there are far more facets than mere economic power.
When you put it into per capita terms, it's meagre.
On a per capita basis, Kazakhstan has a higher GDP.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.