The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help
51 replies, posted
[quote]The [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/"]second presidential debate[/URL] on Sunday night was a strange one, with Donald Trump appearing to be on the brink of a meltdown in the first 20 to 30 minutes and then steadying himself the rest of the way. But here’s the bottom line: Based on post-debate polls, Hillary Clinton probably ended the night in a better place than she started it. And almost without question, she ended the weekend — counting the debate, the [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-trump-tape-have-a-bigger-effect-on-the-race-than-past-controversies/"]revelation on Friday of a 2005 tape[/URL] in which Trump was recorded appearing to condone unwanted sexual contact against women, and the [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-officials-are-fleeing-trump-in-droves/"]Republican reaction to the tape[/URL] — in an improved position.
At times during the past two weeks, but particularly on Saturday afternoon as prominent Republicans were denouncing or unendorsing Trump one after another, it has seemed like Trump’s campaign is experiencing the political equivalent of a stock market crash. By that I mean: There’s some bad news that triggers the crash, and there’s also an element of panic and herd behavior, and it becomes hard to tell exactly which is which. At some point, the market usually finds its footing, as the stock has some fundamental value higher than zero. But it can be a long way down before it does.
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It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A [URL="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/politics/clinton-wins-debate-but-trump-exceeds-expectations/"]CNN poll of debate watchers[/URL] found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov [URL="https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/09/post-debate-poll/"]poll[/URL] of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
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So suppose that we call the debate a draw. Suppose, furthermore that the tape the Post published didn’t damage Trump. Instead, let’s say the polls look about the same a week from now as they do today, with Clinton holding a 5 or 6 percentage point lead. Maybe Clinton’s numbers were a little inflated after the first debate and Trump has even gained a point or two, somehow.
That’s [I]still[/I] a fairly awful position for Trump with time running out, undecided voters [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/"]getting off the sidelines[/URL], early voting already taking place in many states and [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/"]little or no ground game[/URL] to help provide a strong finishing kick. There’s the third debate, but without an extremely strong performance in that one, Trump is probably left hoping for an “October surprise” or a big polling error ([URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/"]not impossible[/URL], but it would have to be larger than the 4-point margin by which [URL="https://medium.com/@jcpolls/was-brexit-a-polling-miss-worse-than-that-4ada28c7ca7#.8hsbbrhvj"]Brexit polls missed[/URL]).[/quote]
[URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/?ex_cid=2016-forecast"]538's article[/URL].
At this point, nothing can help trump
I ain't complaining. Trump gaffes and Hillary scandals just mean more third-party support.
The CNN poll shows that her numbers went down, because it says that before she had 58% and after she has 57%. I don't support Trump but this is a heavily biases poll and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Then the YouGov poll shows that 94% of people didn't change their minds, probably because 41% were democrat (vs the 31% who were republican) These kinds of "polls" are just a bad way to gauge this kind of thing.
[QUOTE=Mikenopa;51182416]The CNN poll shows that her numbers went down, because it says that before she had 58% and after she has 57%. I don't support Trump but this is a heavily biases poll and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Then the YouGov poll shows that 94% of people didn't change their minds, probably because 41% were democrat (vs the 31% who were republican) These kinds of "polls" are just a bad way to gauge this kind of thing.[/QUOTE]
Everybody always says their candidate of choice won, it's silly really
[QUOTE=TWKUK;51182412]I ain't complaining. Trump gaffes and Hillary scandals just mean more third-party support.[/QUOTE]
Which in turn means more likely Trump. Yay for all.
I don't think polls have ever actually worked for gauging anything, way too many things to consider.
[QUOTE=DogGunn;51182467]Which in turn means more likely Trump. Yay for all.[/QUOTE]
You say it's a vote for Trump, Trump supporters say it's a vote for Hillary. I would appreciate if y'all could make up your minds.
Trump only won one of the Republican debates in the scientific polls, and it was by a slim margin. And we had 538 screaming the whole time about how he had no chance of getting the nomination. I'll stick with W's great adage:
[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A[/media]
[QUOTE=TWKUK;51182495]You say it's a vote for Trump, Trump supporters say it's a vote for Hillary. I would appreciate if y'all could make up your minds.[/QUOTE]
It's a vote for a wedge of pie in between the two far larger wedges.
[QUOTE=Mikenopa;51182416]The CNN poll shows that her numbers went down, because it says that before she had 58% and after she has 57%. I don't support Trump but this is a heavily biases poll and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Then the YouGov poll shows that 94% of people didn't change their minds, probably because 41% were democrat (vs the 31% who were republican) These kinds of "polls" are just a bad way to gauge this kind of thing.[/QUOTE]
Huh? It was 57% ever since CNN's poll was released. Either it was typo that got corrected later or you imagined things.
Also there are more registered Democrats then Republicans, so ofcourse there will be more Democrats then Republicans in a focus group.
[QUOTE=AnnieOakley;51182516]It's a vote for a wedge of pie in between the two far larger wedges.[/QUOTE]
Regardless of if that wedge is smaller, picking it means there's a significantly better chance that that wedge will be much larger on the next pie.
okay this metaphor is breaking down really quickly
[QUOTE=SirJon;51182441]Everybody always says their candidate of choice won, it's silly really[/QUOTE]
Undecided voters is where it matters and according to YouGov Hillary won by narrow margin( 44 to 41).
[QUOTE=CroGamer002;51182537]Huh? It was 57% ever since CNN's poll was released. Either it was typo that got corrected later or you imagined things.
Also there are more registered Democrats then Republicans, so ofcourse there will be more Democrats then Republicans in a focus group.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Fifty-eight percent of debate watchers said they were supporting Clinton before the debate. [/QUOTE]
She went from 58% to 57% by their own record. Either way both of these polls have a heavy democrat bias and should not be trusted.
And saying that the YouGov poll is ok because there are currently more democrats than republicans is kind of not true because according to gallup there are only 3% more, not 10%.
[IMG]http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/6lfnhxwzy0qumyhgcnobdg.png[/IMG]
[IMG]https://s22.postimg.org/o3uduc07l/dsadasd.png[/IMG]
[url]https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2x4wqmh621/Post%20Debate%20Poll%20-%20Toplines.pdf[/url]
[QUOTE=TWKUK;51182495]You say it's a vote for Trump, Trump supporters say it's a vote for Hillary. I would appreciate if y'all could make up your minds.[/QUOTE]
It ultimately depends on who Gary Johnson is most taking votes from, which is kind of hard to determine. Some berniebros are going to him, but libertarians also traditionally take from republicans (and have caused them to lose before.)
You can safely say for jill stein that she's taking votes mostly from hillary
I don't think Trump wants to win, look at his strategy back in the primaries compared till his lack f strategy now. It's striking that he was intentionally behaving a certain way and now he's just nutty Trump. Like before he was employing tons of strategies to neutralise the threats one by one and now he's just rambling like a madman.
[QUOTE=Mikenopa;51182416]The CNN poll shows that her numbers went down, because it says that before she had 58% and after she has 57%. I don't support Trump but this is a heavily biases poll and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Then the YouGov poll shows that 94% of people didn't change their minds, probably because 41% were democrat (vs the 31% who were republican) These kinds of "polls" are just a bad way to gauge this kind of thing.[/QUOTE]
[img]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xtf1/t51.2885-15/s320x320/e35/12353347_1660454257567831_1958711236_n.jpg[/img]
I dont particularly care who wins, but i think its safe to say most of "trump is done!" talk on this forum is more wishful thinking than sober minded appraisal. Its been like this every step of the way so far, and pundits have been wrong every time (most embarrassingly, "conservative" pundits who have had the most shameful flip-flop ive ever seen, going from hating trump to singing his praises without missing a step).
[QUOTE=JaegerMonster;51182620][img]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xtf1/t51.2885-15/s320x320/e35/12353347_1660454257567831_1958711236_n.jpg[/img]
I dont particularly care who wins, but i think its safe to say most of "trump is done!" talk on this forum is more wishful thinking than sober minded appraisal. Its been like this every step of the way so far, and pundits have been wrong every time (most embarrassingly, "conservative" pundits who have had the most shameful flip-flop ive ever seen, going from hating trump to singing his praises without missing a step).[/QUOTE]
Right back to hating him more than ever, as of this weekend.
[QUOTE=JaegerMonster;51182620][img]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xtf1/t51.2885-15/s320x320/e35/12353347_1660454257567831_1958711236_n.jpg[/img]
I dont particularly care who wins, but i think its safe to say most of "trump is done!" talk on this forum is more wishful thinking than sober minded appraisal. Its been like this every step of the way so far, and pundits have been wrong every time (most embarrassingly, "conservative" pundits who have had the most shameful flip-flop ive ever seen, going from hating trump to singing his praises without missing a step).[/QUOTE]
They really haven't though, it's a myth that Trump has been unharmed by his scandals in the general election. Apart from one or two times (depending on which poll avergae you use) he's spent the entire election going between 'behind Clinton' and 'really far behind Clinton'
[editline]10th October 2016[/editline]
What was the last thing Trump did that brought any new voters to his side?
[QUOTE=Rossy167;51182590]I don't think Trump wants to win, look at his strategy back in the primaries compared till his lack f strategy now. It's striking that he was intentionally behaving a certain way and now he's just nutty Trump. Like before he was employing tons of strategies to neutralise the threats one by one and now he's just rambling like a madman.[/QUOTE]
I mean, it's not fair to say he has no strategy. I saw a fairly sound strategy last night. In the wake of the complete implosion of his campaign and his party over the weekend, he knew (and was likely coached) that the only way to have control over the debate would be to go on a relentless offensive. Keep Clinton so off-balance with the constant barrage of attacks that she is so busy trying to respond to them that she doesn't have enough time to properly highlight Trump's own controversies and hypocrisies. He accomplished that fairly swimmingly, after the initial meltdown of the first 10-15 minutes of the debate. While I'm still on the fence about whether or not I think he actually won the debate as a whole, he did manage to control the debate floor well enough to keep Clinton on the defensive and deflect the controversy away from himself, and that's a victory in itself considering what was hanging over his head.
Another attempt at strategy I notice were his frequent references to Bernie Sanders. Trump was pretty obviously trying to appeal to the anti-establishment crowd among Clinton's ranks to convince a few to jump fence. In my opinion, however, he did this so hamfistedly that it became painfully obvious. Patronizing, even. Like, "do you really think you're fooling anybody?"
[QUOTE=smurfy;51182643]They really haven't though, it's a myth that Trump has been unharmed by his scandals in the general election. Apart from one or two times (depending on which poll avergae you use) he's spent the entire election going between 'behind Clinton' and 'really far behind Clinton'
[editline]10th October 2016[/editline]
What was the last thing Trump did that brought any new voters to his side?[/QUOTE]
That very minor RNC bump while Bernie or Bust protestors started to protesting, only time he was in lead by a tiny merging for like less then a week. That was 3 and half months ago.
Trump never got close to that peak since. In fact before 1st debate, only reason Trump and Hillary got close is due to Hillary declining in polls while Trump just stagnated and since after debate started to decline even more.
It just doesn't seem as calculated or intelligent as last time, you could tell he'd focus tested lines like "Lyin' Ted" and was using it for a specific purpose not just middle school playground bullying. Things like that. This time he pretty much says "hey Bernie supporters I'm cool!" and his keeping Hillary occupied came across as him rambling on like a drunk old man in the pub.
[editline]10th October 2016[/editline]
I'm not a Trump supporter, but I really looked up to his technique in the primaries but he's really let himself go this time.
[QUOTE=DogGunn;51182467]Which in turn means more likely Trump. Yay for all.[/QUOTE]
Should we start to fear true democracy just because somebody you don't like might get elected?
[QUOTE=Jouska;51182744]Should we start to fear true democracy just because somebody you don't like might get elected?[/QUOTE]
Yes. Honestly yes. Here in the UK I could accept the opinions of every leader despite supporting Labour, in the USA I see Trump as racist, sexist and xenophobic, I see he knows nothing about economics and is absolutely unqualified. There's a striking difference.
Also here in the UK Brexit was a binary decision, so the 48% of people who voted Remain now go 100% unrepresented, which is also undemocratic.
Our democratic system isn't perfect, sorry.
[QUOTE=Jouska;51182744]Should we start to fear true democracy just because somebody you don't like might get elected?[/QUOTE]
true democracy is 3 wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner
[QUOTE=DogGunn;51182467]Which in turn means more likely Trump. Yay for all.[/QUOTE]
not really, unless the third party candidate heavily shares views with a candidate. look at ross perot, he was widely blamed for the election of bill clinton yet pulled almost identical amounts of voters from dem/republican sides.
[QUOTE=JaegerMonster;51182620][img]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xtf1/t51.2885-15/s320x320/e35/12353347_1660454257567831_1958711236_n.jpg[/img]
I dont particularly care who wins, but i think its safe to say most of "trump is done!" talk on this forum is more wishful thinking than sober minded appraisal. Its been like this every step of the way so far, and pundits have been wrong every time (most embarrassingly, "conservative" pundits who have had the most shameful flip-flop ive ever seen, going from hating trump to singing his praises without missing a step).[/QUOTE]
I watched a video with Kellyanne Conway being critical of Trump yesterday, only to realize about 15 seconds in it was when she worked for Cruz. I've actually lost more respect for her with that revelation.
[QUOTE=SirJon;51182441]Everybody always says their candidate of choice won, it's silly really[/QUOTE]
jill stein won the debate imo
I think Karl Becker was the real winner.
It took 28 years but dukakis finally recovered and won the debate
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